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New Coronavirus Growth Rate Tracker

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New Sevens Report Coronavirus Growth Rate Tracker (We Made an Important Change)

Futures are slightly higher as markets digest Thursday’s afternoon rally following a quiet night of news.

Coronavirus trends continued to deteriorate as the U.S. set a new daily high for new coronavirus infections (40,184).

But, no additional companies announced plans to slow re-openings, so the market is looking past the spike in cases for now.

There was no notable economic data out overnight.

Today there are two economic reports, Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 78.9), but neither should move markets.  Instead, focus will remain on the coronavirus and as long as there aren’t any major corporations announcing a delay in re-opening plans, markets will continue to look past the surging coronavirus infections.

Why Surging Coronavirus Cases Aren’t Causing a Selloff

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Surging Coronavirus Cases Aren’t Causing a Selloff
  • Technical Take: S&P 500

Stock futures are trading higher with international shares as conflicting trade war headlines continue to be digested while economic data was mostly encouraging overnight.

White House trade advisor, Peter Navarro, said late Monday that the U.S.-China trade deal was “over,” but his comments were contradicted by a Trump tweet saying the deal was “intact,” which saw risk-off money flows reverse o/n.

Global Composite Flash PMIs largely topped expectations overnight, bolstering hopes that a swift economic recovery is underway.

Today, investor focus will be on economic data early as the U.S. Composite PMI Flash (E: 45.0) and New Home Sales (E: 630K) are both due out shortly after the opening bell.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 2-Year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact the yield curve and ultimately move the equity markets in the afternoon.

Aside from those potential catalysts, any further developments regarding the trade war or coronavirus infection rates will be closely watched as the market continues to look for direction with the S&P being tightly rangebound for the last week.

The Current Tug of War in this Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Current Tug Of War in this Market
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Rising Coronavirus Cases Matter?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Tomorrow’s Global Flash PMIs Are The Key Report This Week

Futures are moderately higher despite generally negative news over the weekend (the news wasn’t terrible, but it wasn’t good either, and certainly not worth a 75 bps rally in futures).

Coronavirus cases continue to move higher, as new cases rose above 30k in the U.S. for the first time since early May.

Politically, President Trump’s Tulsa rally undershot expectations, highlighting a still challenging path to re-election (the market still views the Trump administration is more business friendly than a Biden administration, yet despite the polls, markets are not pricing in virtually any chance of a Biden win in November, and we think that’s a risk going forward).

Today the calendar is quiet as there is only one economic report, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.29M).  So, incremental coronavirus headlines will likely move markets, and if we get any more headlines about companies closing stores/businesses in Florida/Arizona/Texas/California, that should weigh on markets.

New S&P 500 Measured Move Targets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New S&P 500 Measured Move Targets

Futures are solidly higher following a generally quiet night as markets again try to extend this week’s rally.

Economically, British Retail Sales were much stronger than expected, rising 12% vs (E) 6.5% and adding to the better than expected data this week.

New daily coronavirus cases continued to increase in the U.S., but markets for now continue to look past the recent uptick.

Today there are no notable economic reports, although there are multiple Fed speakers including: Powell (1:00 p.m. ET), Rosengren (10:15 a.m. ET), Quarles (12:00 p.m. ET), Mester (1:00 p.m. ET).  But, given Powell’s testimony earlier this week, it’s unlikely any of the Fed officials say anything to materially move markets.

Finally, today is a “quad witch” quarterly options expiration, so we should expect big volumes and an uptick in volatility into the close.

The Four Phases of Fiscal Stimulus Explained

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Four Phases of Fiscal Stimulus Explained
  • Weekly EIA Data Analysis and Oil Update

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning following a risk-off night of trade thanks to ongoing concerns about rising COVID-19 infections in the U.S., Europe, and China.

There were no market moving economic reports overnight however the 7-day moving average of daily new cases of coronavirus in the U.S. reached a one-month high yesterday which is pressuring risk assets this morning.

It is lining up to be a busy morning as the BOE Meeting Announcement will hit at the top of the 7 o’clock hour (ET), before U.S. economic data kicks off at 8:30 a.m. ET with: Jobless Claims (E: 1.220M) and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (E: -22.7), and then after the bell, Leading Indicators (E: 1.7%) will be released.

There are also three Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Kashkari (E: 11:00 p.m. ET), Mester (12:15 p.m. ET), and Daly (7:00 p.m. ET) but investors have been largely focused on coronavirus headlines over the last 12-18 hours so any fresh developments on testing, new case trends, or treatments will likely move markets.

Economic Breaker Panel: June Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel: June Update
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Takeaways

S&P futures wavered between gains and losses overnight amid mixed economic news and an uptick in new COVID-19 cases across parts of the U.S. while focus turns to the Fed.

In their latest update, the Paris-based OECD now expects a 6.0%-7.6% contraction in the global economy in 2020, the worst in 100 years.

Economically, both China’s CPI and PPI readings for May were well below estimates with the latter pointing to a concerning increase in deflationary pressures (-3.7% YoY) as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report due out ahead of the bell: CPI (E: 0.0%) before investors will look ahead to the FOMC Meeting Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) in the afternoon.

Specifically, the Fed’s new economic projections and any clarity on QE plans will be most closely watched items this afternoon and have the most potential to move markets into the close.

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart
  • What Do Protests Mean for Markets

S&P futures are once again up by double digits today as more stimulus chatter by global central banks and good economic data offset intensifying civil unrest in the U.S.

Economically, global Composite PMI data for May was mostly upbeat with Chinese and EU figures coming in ahead of expectations while the EU Unemployment Rate in April was not as bad as feared at 7.3% vs. (E) 8.2%.

Looking into the U.S. session, focus will be on economic data early with three notable reports due to be released: ADP Employment Report (E: -8.663M), Factory Orders (E: -14.0%), and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 44.0).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today so investor focus will likely turn back to the protests across much of the country as well as the simmering geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China after this morning’s economic data.

Bottom line, if economic data in the U.S. largely confirms the upbeat data from overseas, the rally could extend higher towards 3,100 in the S&P 500 however the market is becoming near-term overextended and due for a breather.

Market Multiple Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – June Update
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways

Futures are solidly higher today, rising with international markets thanks to easing geopolitical tensions offsetting COVID-19 worries and historic civil unrest in the U.S.

Chinese firms reportedly purchased multiple shipments of U.S. soybeans on Monday, contradicting earlier headlines that the government had broadly halted ag orders. The positive trade activity is acting as a tentative tailwind this morning.

There were no economic reports overnight but oil prices are up nearly 3% as OPEC+ (including Russia) is expected to extend current policy and output cuts beyond June.

Today, Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 10.0M) is the only economic data due to be released while there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak. That will leave investors largely focused on the simmering trade tensions between the U.S. and China as well as the ongoing, in some cases violent, protests across much of the U.S.

China Press Conference Preview (A New Headwind?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • China Press Conference Preview (A New Market Headwind?)
  • EIA and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly lower as markets digest the week’s gains ahead of the China press conference and Powell speech.

Economic data was mixed overnight as German Retail Sales beat estimates (-5.3% vs. (E) -11%), while Japanese IP and Retail Sales both missed expectations.

U.S./China tensions continue to tick higher as China said it would retaliate to any sanctions over the Hong Kong law.

Today the big event is the Trump/China press conference, and the key is this:  As long as there’s no reason for the markets to think the “trade truce” is in jeopardy, any market fallout from more sanctions on China should be relatively modest.

Away from China, we get two notable economic reports today, Core PCE Price Index (E: -0.3%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 73.9) and a speech by Fed Chair Powell (11:00 a.m. ET).  But, that’s unlikely to move markets unless there’s a surprise revealed (and that’s not likely as Fed policy is pretty well known at this point).

Bullish Developments on Equity Index Charts

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bullish Developments on the Equity Index Charts
  • Is There A Finally a Rival to Treasuries?  If So, What Are the Short and Long Term Implications?

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news.

China’s legislature approved new security legislation for Hong Kong, further escalating tensions with the U.S. But, for now, markets are ignoring it.

Economically, the only notable number was EU Economic Sentiment which missed expectations (67.5 vs. (E) 70.5).

Today focus will be on economic data as we get multiple important reports including, in order of importance: Jobless Claims (E: 2.050M), Durable Goods Orders (E: -18.5%), Revised Q2 GDP (E: -4.8%), and Pending Home Sales Index (E: -15.5%).   We also get one Fed speaker: Williams (11:00 a.m. ET).

Finally, the administration keeps teasing a “response” to China passing the Hong Kong security legislation, and while markets have been able to ignore the uptick in U.S./China tension, that won’t last forever if tensions continue to rise.