Posts

Hard Landing vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard

/in , /by

Hard Landing vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continues to Rise: Chart
  • Consumer Confidence Report Highlights Uncertain Economic Outlook

U.S. equity futures are mixed as continued strength in tech shares is supporting gains in Nasdaq 100 contracts while both the Dow Industrials and Russell 2000 futures are lower amid higher yields in the wake of hot inflation data overnight.

Economically, Australian CPI came in hot with the headline jumping to 4.0% y/y vs. (E) 3.8%, up from 3.6% previously.

In Europe, Germany’s GFK Consumer Climate Index slipped to -21.8 vs. (E) -20.0 pointing to weakening sentiment.

Looking into today’s session there are no Fed speakers scheduled to speak and just one economic report to watch: New Home Sales (E: 650K).

There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction in the early afternoon (1:00 p.m. ET) and investors will want to see strong demand like we saw with yesterday’s 2-Yr auction to keep bond yields stable and near recent lows.

Finally, there is one earnings release worth noting today as Micron Technologies will report quarterly results after the close (E: $0.51) and with a lot of optimism surrounding tech and AI, results will need to meet or exceed expectations to keep the mega-cap tech rally alive.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is Q2 Sector Performance Warning About Growth?

/in , /by

Is Q2 Sector Performance Warning About Growth? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Second Quarter Market Performance Warning About Economic Growth?
  • Trading Color – NVDA Declines Mask Broad Market Gains to Start the Week
  • Chart – Equal Weigh S&P 500 Unchanged From Early March

Futures are modestly higher this morning as mega-cap tech recovers some of yesterday’s losses in the pre-market with NVDA up over 3% amid an otherwise quiet night of news.

There were no notable economic reports or market moving catalysts overnight.

Today, investor focus will be on a combination of economic data, Fed speak, and a key Treasury auction

Economically, we will get Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 7.0%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 6.7%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 100.0) releases this morning and there are two Fed speakers: Bowman (7:00 a.m. & 2:15 p.m. ET), Cook (12:00 p.m. ET).

In the afternoon, traders will await the results of a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong demand (lower yields) will reaffirm the dovish shift in Fed policy expectations this month while weak demand (rising yields) could rekindle higher-for-longer policy rate worries and spark risk-off money flows.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Does the Bullish Mantra Still Work?

/in , /by

Does the Bullish Mantra Still Work? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Does the Bullish Mantra Still Work?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Upward Momentum Still in Control
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Friday’s Core PCE Price Index Is the Key Report This Week

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

Economically, the only notable report overnight was the German IFO Business Expectations and that slightly missed estimates (89.0 vs. 90.4).

Political risks in France eased over the weekend as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party, which still leads in the polls, committed to fiscal restraint and pro-business policies.

This week contains some important updates on growth and inflation, but it starts quietly as there are no notable economic reports today and just one Fed speaker,  Daly (2:00 p.m. ET), and she shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Summer’s Finally Here – Investing in the Kids

/in , /by

Summer’s Finally Here – Investing in the Kids: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Summer’s Finally Here – Investing in the Kids
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly lower as global economic data missed estimates and further pointed towards a slowing of growth.

The Euro Zone flash PMI dropped to 50.8 vs. (E) 52.4 and UK Flash PMI fell to 51.7 vs. (E) 53.3 and those soft readings are increasing global growth concerns and that’s weighing on futures.

Economic data will again be in focus today and, by far, the most important report is the June Flash Composite PMI (E: 51.6) and given the softness in economic data this week, the stronger this number, the better.

Other notable economic reports today include Existing Home Sales (E: 4.10 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.3%) but it’ll take big surprises for them to move markets.

Finally, today is a “Quadruple Witching” options expiration so there may be higher than normal volumes and greater than normal volatility into the close.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Fed outlook is essentially known at this point

/in , /by

The Fed outlook is essentially known at this point: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stock Market Is In a Holding Pattern as Fed Officials Speak

“The Fed outlook is essentially known at this point,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

He says that whether a first rate cut comes in September or December, it won’t matter too much.

“Maybe it causes a percent or two of volatility, but I don’t think it’s a substantial issue anymore,” Essaye says. “We know we’re getting something in September or December. I think the bigger question is, what’s growth look like when we get it.”

That’s why markets may hope for upbeat economic data in the months ahead, as signs of a slowing for the economy could have a more substantial impact on stocks than a brief delay for rate cuts.

“In the grand scheme of things, 25 basis points in September versus December, that’s not going to stop a slowdown if it’s occurring,” he says. “If somebody came out and said, ‘We’re thinking about not cutting rates at all,’ that would move markets. But I don’t think there’s any chance of that happening.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

I expect the rest of the week to be very quiet

/in , /by

I expect the rest of the week to be very quiet: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit New Records

“It essentially will kind of kill the week, to be honest, because anybody that can take Thursday and Friday off just got basically almost a week off,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “There will be plenty of people who will do that. So I expect the rest of the week to be very quiet.”

A wave of Federal Reserve speakers did little to shift the market. Investors know that interest rate cuts will depend on the data in the coming months. Essaye says it will take a surprise from economic data such as jobless claims to wake up the market this week.

“There’s really quite a confluence of data that’s starting to point to some labor market easing. In everyone’s concern that the economy is going to slow, that’s been the missing piece,” Essaye says.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Oil has recovered from its early June pullback to test seven-week highs

/in , /by

Oil has recovered from its early June pullback to test seven-week highs: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices settle at highest since April on brighter demand prospects

Oil has recovered from its early June pullback to test seven-week highs on “price-supportive rhetoric” from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

The initial “knee-jerk selloff” reaction to the June 2 decision by OPEC+ to phase out voluntary oil-production cuts after the third quarter was “largely reversed and seen as overdone,” Richey told MarketWatch. OPEC+ leadership “confirmed that they will remain flexible and only reduce their voluntary output cuts if market conditions warranted, and clarified increasing production is not necessarily a base-case expectation right now,” he said.

“Evidence of strong domestic demand at the start of the U.S. summer driving season, rising geopolitical tensions overseas and renewed hopes for a perfectly executed [economic] soft landing” by the Federal Reserve have also contributed to oil’s price rebound, Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on June 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone

/in , /by

Investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Are stock-market investors losing faith in ‘immaculate disinflation’?

That’s a sign that investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Monday note.

While the S&P 500 rallied 1.58% last week, the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.25%, the Dow industrials lost 0.54% and RSP (S&P 500 equal weight) declined 0.53%. “The reason the ‘rest’ of the market declined last week was that while disinflation is occurring, it may not be ‘immaculate’ and that’s a potential negative for stocks.,” he wrote.

“Here’s the point: If inflation falls because growth is slowing, that’s not an automatic positive for stocks anymore and we saw that this past week as sectors and stocks that weren’t attached to AI declined, despite the drop in CPI and rising Fed cut expectations,” he wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 17th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth

/in , /by

Investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Market Had Another Great Week—but Trouble Still Lurks

In fact, investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth, wrote Sevens Report President Tom Essaye on Friday.

“To be clear, I’m not saying a slowdown is upon us and I’m not saying that the economic expansion is ending. Growth is still solid. What I am saying is that the market calculus…may be changing a bit at the margin,” Essaye wrote.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report

/in , /by

The consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Lower. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Pull Back From Record Highs.

“But, more important than the consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “Markets will want to see stable consumer sentiment and better than expected inflation readings to rally.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.