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What the Fed Rate Cut Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Rate Cut Means for Markets (A Vote for the Run Hot Economy)

Futures are moderately higher following a mostly quiet night of news as investors digest Wednesday’s rate cut and the prospect of even lower rates in the future.

Economic data underwhelmed overnight as Japanese Machine Orders dropped (–4.6% vs. (E) -3.5%) while Australian employment fell –5,400 vs. (E) 22k.

Today we get a rate decision from the Bank of England (no change is expected) and some notable economic reports: Jobless Claims (E: 246K), Philly Fed (E: 3.0) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%).  With the Fed now cutting rates, stable and solid economic data is needed to support a further rally in stocks.  If economic data begins to roll over, however, that will be a new negative for markets because it’ll imply the Fed waited too long to begin to cut.

On the earnings front, some notable reports include:  DRI ($1.99), FDX ($3.65), LEN ($2.12).

 

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview

Futures are modestly higher ahead of the jobs report and following solid tech earnings overnight.

Semiconductor company Broadcom (AVGO) beat estimates and offered bullish guidance and the stock is up 9% pre-market and that’s helping to lift futures.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders missed estimates, felling –2.9% vs. (E) 0.5%.

Focus today will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  E: 77K Job-Adds, 4.3% Unemployment Rate, 3.8% Wage Growth.  Any job adds number in the mid to low 100k range would be ideal for stocks as it would keep rate cut expectations high but also signal a stable labor market.  Conversely, if job adds drop close to zero (or even go negative even with revisions) it’ll increase concerns the labor market is cooling, boost slowdown fears and likely hit stocks.

 

Nvidia, AMD Deal with Trump Administration Eases AI Investor Fears: Tom Essaye

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Chip sales to China continue under new revenue-sharing agreement

Nvidia & AMD investors can put China chip tariff risks ‘to bed’

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye and Allspring Global’s John Campbell discussed reports that Nvidia and AMD reached a deal with the Trump administration to resume selling chips in China, with 15% of the revenue going to the U.S. government.

Essaye said the agreement signals that the companies are “ready to play ball” with policymakers to protect growth in the AI sector. “Eighty-five percent is a lot more than zero,” he noted, calling the resolution a relief for AI-focused investors now that a major uncertainty has been removed.

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How To Navigate An “AI Bubble” (If One Exists)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How To Navigate An “AI Bubble” (If One Exists)

Futures are sharply lower following sweeping tariff announcements by the administration overnight.

The Trump administration made numerous reciprocal tariff announcements and while the vast majority of them were previously reported, the sheer volume of tariffs is weighing on sentiment.

Focus today will be on economic data and specifically the jobs report and ISM Manufacturing PMIs.  Expectations for the jobs report are: 110K Job-Adds, 4.2% UE Rate and 3.7% y/y Wages) while the ISM Manufacturing Index expectation is 49.5.

Given the early, tariff related weakness in stocks, a “Too Cold” jobs report or ISM Manufacturing PMI could accelerate the selling as they would compound worries that high tariffs will hurt future growth.  So, solid numbers from both are needed to push back on this morning’s tariff anxiety.

Finally, on earnings, today is the last meaningful day and some reports we’re watching include: BRK.B ($5.24), XOM ($1.49), CVX ($1.66), D ($0.69), CL ($0.89), KMB ($1.68).

 

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: No Real Signs of a Slowdown

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard:  No Real Signs of a Slowdown

Futures are drifting slightly higher after a generally quiet night of no additional Trump/Powell drama or trade news.

President Trump’s visit to the Fed was largely uneventful and markets still fully expect Powell to finish his term.

Economic data from Europe slightly underwhelmed as UK Retail Sales (0.9% vs. (E) 1.4%) and German IFO Businesses expectations (90.7 vs. (E) 91.4) both missed estimates.

Today there’s just one notable economic report, Durable Goods (E: -11.0%), and markets will want to see another solid number that reinforces businesses are not slowing investment despite tariff uncertainty.

On earnings, next week is another big one for important companies but there are still some worthwhile results today including: CNC ($0.68), HCA ($6.19), AN ($4.70), PSX ($1.63), AON ($3.40).

 

A New Type of Research Offering

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A New Type of Research from Sevens Report – Introducing “Special Reports”
  • Economic Takeaways – CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Tamp Down Dovish Policy Hopes
  • Why September Rate Cut Odds Are Receding (Slightly)

Futures are little changed while there is a tentative bid in the bond market as investors continue to digest the June CPI release and look ahead to more earnings today.

Economically, U.K. CPI rose +0.2% to 3.6% y/y vs. (E) 3.4% which is bolstering the pound and weighing modestly on the dollar index this morning as well as capping a rebound in bonds.

Looking into today’s session, the second important inflation print of the week is due to be released before the bell with PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y), and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.7% y/y) scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET while Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET.

A busy week of Fed speak also continues with multiple officials delivering remarks today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (9:15 a.m. ET), and Barr (10:00 a.m. ET).

The market will be looking for any signs of “cooler” inflation or modest slowing in growth to rekindle September rate cut hopes which would offer fresh support for the equity market rally.

Finally, earnings season continues with multiple notable companies releasing quarter results today including ASML ($5.94), BAC ($0.86), GS ($9.43), MS ($1.93), JNJ ($2.66), PGR ($4.30), UAL ($3.86), and KMI ($0.28).

Stock Vigilantes May Push Back If Trump Escalates Tariffs Says Tom Essaye

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Sevens Report warns equity markets won’t tolerate unchecked trade risks

‘Stock vigilantes’ could rebel against Trump’s tariffs: Sevens Report

WALL STREET MAY SOON SEND A MESSAGE IF TARIFF THREATS TURN TO ACTION

So far, investors have largely shrugged off Trump’s tariff rhetoric, assuming he won’t follow through on aggressive trade threats.

But according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, that complacency may soon fade if tariffs actually hit.

“It’s possible that stock vigilantes could appear… If Trump views the new highs in stocks as a ‘green light’ to escalate the trade war, it may well have to decline to remind the administration…”

Essaye argues that the U.S. economy can absorb around 10% aggregate tariffs, but anything more could threaten a return to stagflation-like conditions.

The term “stock vigilantes” borrows from “bond vigilantes”—investors who sell U.S. debt in protest of fiscal mismanagement. This time, equities could become the market’s way of saying “enough.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 14th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Do tariffs start to boost inflation this month?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Important inflation and growth updates this week.

Futures are modestly lower following more tariff threats over the weekend.

President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and non-USMCA goods from Mexico starting August 1st, although the modest decline in markets still implies investors think tariff rates will be negotiated lower ahead of the deadline.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Chinese exports, which beat expectations (5.8% vs. (E) 5.0%).

This week is an important one from an economic standpoint as we’ll get important updates on inflation (via CPI & PPI) and growth (via retail sales), but the week starts quietly as there are no notable economic reports today.

On earnings, the Q2 reporting season begins to heat up this week via big bank earnings, although today the only notable report to watch is FAST ($0.28).

S&P 500 Hits New High, But Delayed Tariff Policy May Block Rate Cuts

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Tom Essaye warns unclear trade policy may prolong high rates and slow growth

S&P 500 Rises to Record as Treasury Sale Goes Well: Markets Wrap

TREASURY AUCTION BOOSTS STOCKS—BUT POLICY RISKS STILL LOOM

The S&P 500 climbed to a fresh record Thursday as a strong Treasury auction eased market concerns over demand for U.S. debt. But Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye cautions that persistent tariff uncertainty may soon weigh on investor optimism.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye says the real risk lies in the ripple effect: delayed trade policy could weaken the odds of a September rate cut, keeping rates elevated and increasing the chance of an economic slowdown.

“The practical impact… is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut.”

As equities surge, markets may be pricing in too much optimism while ignoring trade-related policy drag that could resurface later this quarter.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Swissinfo.ch published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Earnings Drive S&P 500 Higher As Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

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Tom Essaye says unclear trade policy could block rate cuts and slow growth

S&P 500 at Record as Corporate Earnings Offset Tariff Jitters

RECORD HIGHS MET WITH POLICY RISKS AHEAD OF FED’S NEXT MOVE

The S&P 500 opened at record levels on Thursday, lifted by strong corporate earnings—but not all strategists are celebrating.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, warns that persistent tariff uncertainty could reduce the chances of a September rate cut and heighten the risk of a broader economic slowdown.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

According to Essaye, the “consistently delayed” tariff timeline is already having a practical impact by extending the higher-for-longer rate environment.

“The practical impact… is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut.”

Without a clear trade policy resolution, investors may soon be forced to weigh strong earnings against an increasingly restrictive policy backdrop.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here