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Alleviate consumer-demand concerns and recession worries

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Alleviate consumer-demand concerns and recession worries: Tyler Richey, editor of Sevens Report Technicals Quoted in MarketWatch

U.S. oil prices settle at highest in 3 weeks as trade-war optimism eases consumer-demand concerns

U.S. benchmark oil prices settled Tuesday at their highest in three weeks, as trade-war optimism helped “alleviate consumer-demand concerns and recession worries,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

A multiyear low in annualized U.S. headline inflation was also a “welcomed surprise that effectively poured gasoline on an already raging risk-on fire across financial markets since the better-than-anticipated outcome of the U.S.-China trade negotiations over the weekend,” he told MarketWatch.

A continued relief rally seems to be likely in the weeks ahead, with the $70- to $72-a-barrel range the “first logical upside price target for WTI,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 14th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are moderately higher on more trade optimism.

President Trump posted on social media that he would announce a new trade deal this morning (likely with the UK) and this is driving optimism for more tariff relief.

Economically, the only notable report was German Industrial Production, which beat estimates (3.0% vs. (E) 2.7%).

Today focus will remain on economic data and specifically Jobless Claims (E: 232K), as investors will want to see claims decline from last week’s spike.  If claims continue to rise, that will increase economic anxiety (and likely pressure stocks).  Other economic events today include a BOE Rate Decision (E: 25 bps cut) and U.S. Unit Labor Costs (E: 5.2%), which are an important measure of inflation (and again, the lower this number, the better).

On earnings, the season is virtually over but there are a few notable reports today:  SHOP ($0.17), COP ($2.06),  COIN ($2.04), MELI ($7.67), AFRM ($-0.08).

More S&P 500 stocks are trading below their 200-day MAs than their 50-day MAs

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The primary negative influences on copper: Tyler Richey, editor of Sevens Report Technicals Quoted in MarketWatch

More S&P 500 stocks trade below 200-day moving average than 50-day moving average

“The fact that more S&P 500 stocks are trading below their 200-day MAs than their 50-day MAs continues to support the case that the rally off the April 2025 lows remains a countertrend move in an otherwise still downward-trending market,” Tyler Richey, editor of Sevens Report Technicals, wrote in a Monday note.

Using the 2022 bear market as a guide, a test of the 50% level in the percentage of S&P 500 companies that are trading above their 200-day moving average “should not come as a surprise ahead of another washout as initial attempts to find a bottom in this bear market commence,” Richey wrote.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways – Resilience Points to Soft Landing

Stock futures are lower thanks to a combination of weak earnings news and disappointing economic data overnight.

On the earnings front, PLTR missed estimates (shares down -8% in premarket trading) while F pulled 2025 guidance noting a tariff impact estimated to be -$2.5B on this year’s earnings.

Economically, China’s Service PMI fell to 50.7 vs. (E) 51.8 in April which dragged the Composite PMI down from 51.8 to 51.1, highlighting the negative impact the global trade war is having on the Chinese economy.

Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: International Trade Balance (E: -$136.3B). Typically, trade data is now widely followed, however given the trade war, a deeper than anticipated deficit could bolster recession angst.

Moving to the afternoon, the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The outcome of the former could shed light on near-term rate-cut odds while the latter auction could offer insight into growth and inflation expectations.

Finally, some late season earnings are due out today including: MAR ($2.27), CEG ($2.14), AMD ($0.75), SMCI ($0.21), and ET ($0.33).

Bottom line, good economic news and dovish money flows in Treasury auctions could help stabilize markets as the Fed meeting gets underway in Washington which will likely result in a growing sense of “Fed paralysis” as the session progresses today.

MMT Chart: A Rare Oversold Condition

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart:  A Rare Oversold Condition

Futures are moderately lower (down around 1%) as investors take profits following Wednesday’s massive rally.

There was no new tariff or trade news overnight and investors digested the good news/bad news of no punitive global reciprocal tariffs (positive) but still-in-place 125% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on most U.S. imports (negative).

Today focus will turn back towards economic data and the two key reports are CPI (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and Jobless Claims (E: 225K).  A weaker than expected CPI and lower than expected jobless claims will push back against stagflation concerns and help stocks potentially extend yesterday’s rebound.

Turning to the Fed, there are multiple speakers today but they are unlikely to move markets (the Fed is in “wait and see” mode like the rest of us).  Speakers today include:  Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET), Logan (9:30 a.m. ET), Schmid & Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee & Harker (12:00 p.m. ET).

Easing trade war angst

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Easing trade war angst: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Tesla Stock’s 12% Surge Powers Broader Comeback—As Investors Bet Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Won’t Be So Bad

The rally came thanks to “easing trade war angst” on Wall Street, explained Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, referencing Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal’s weekend reports that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect next week will be far more focused in nature than Trump previously suggested.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on March 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Did the Fed Just Do Mini QE?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did the Fed Just Do Mini QE?

Futures are modestly lower following several disappointing earnings results after yesterday’s close.

Earnings overnight were underwhelming as FedEx (FDX down 8% pre-market), Lennar (LEN –4% pre-market) and Nike (NKE down 6% pre-market) all posted weak results or soft guidance, adding to the list of recently disappointing results.

Today the calendar is quiet as there’s no notable economic data and just one Fed speaker, Williams (9:05 a.m. ET), although he is part of Fed leadership and if he’s dovish, that should support markets.

On the earnings front, the only notable report is Carnaval Corp (CCL $0.02) and investors will want to see continued solid results to show consumers are still spending on vacations.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are moderately lower as markets digest and give back some of Wednesday’s post-Fed rally, following a generally quiet night of news.

There were no new tariff headlines overnight while economic data (UK Labour Market Report) met expectations.

Today focus will turn back to economic data and there are several notable reports including, in order of importance, Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Philly Fed (E: 11.5), Existing Home Sales (E: 3.95 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.2%).  Given rising economic worries, the stronger these reports (especially the first two) the better.

There are also several important earnings reports to watch today including ACN ($2.84), MU ($1.44), NKE ($0.28), FDX ($4.66), PDD ($2.56).  Given recent soft guidance from various companies, the stronger the results and guidance, the better for markets.

FOMC Preview: Clarity on the “Fed Put”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Meeting Preview – Clarity on the “Fed Put”
  • Retail Sales & Empire State Manufacturing Data Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as the bounce off of last week’s multi-month lows is being digested while trader-focus is turning to the March FOMC meeting which begins today.

Economically, the March German ZEW Survey saw its headline edge up from -88.5 to -87.6 while the Economic Sentiment component jumped from 26.0 to 51.6 vs. (E) 35. The data was well received and is amplifying already elevated optimism surrounding a looming German parliament vote on a massive spending package (focused on defense spending) that is expected to bolster economic growth.

In the U.S., there are several economic reports to watch today including: Housing Starts (1.383M), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.1% m/m, -0.2% m/m), and Industrial Production (E: 0.2%), however with the Fed decision looming tomorrow, none are expected to meaningfully move markets today.

The only other noteworthy, potential catalysts today are a pair of Treasury auctions, the first for 52-Week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and the second for 20-Yr Bonds at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong demand in the shorter durations bills would be seen as dovish and “market-friendly” while too strong of demand for 20-Yr Bonds could rekindle worries about the economy.

What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Is the Fed Put in Play?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Updates on Growth (The Stronger the Data, the Better)

Futures are modestly lower mostly on digestion of Friday’s big rally and following a relatively quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there were no new tariff headlines, threats or social media postings over the weekend and if that lasts it would be a near-term positive for markets.

Economically, the only notable number was the Italian HICP (their CPI) which met expectations, rising 1.7% y/y.

Focus will remain on trade headlines but outside of the tariff drama this is an important week of economic data.  Today focus will be on two reports, Retail Sales (E: 0.7%) and Empire Manufacturing Index (-1.9).  If both numbers are better than expected they will push back on the idea policy chaos is slowing the actual economy (and help stocks).  However, if they’re weaker then expected, look for economic anxiety to grow (and stocks to drop).