FOMC Preview (What Makes It Dovish Enough?)

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FOMC Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview (What’s Expected/Dovish If/Hawkish If)

Futures are modestly lower following a quiet night of news as markets digest yesterday’s rally ahead of several days of critical earnings and tomorrow’s FOMC decision.

Economic data was sparse.  UK CBI Distributive Trades (it’s like retail sales) beat estimates rising to 4 vs. (E) -25 but the number isn’t moving markets.

Today there are only two notable economic reports,  Case-Shiller HPI (E: 4.2% yoy) and Consumer Confidence (E: 95.7) and neither should move markets.

Instead, focus will be on stimulus (negotiations will accelerate and the market expects a done deal in two weeks) and earnings.  Specifically, the volume of important earnings reports spikes between now and Friday, so we’ll be watching these results closely (especially the reports on Thursday).  Today, some notable earnings include:  MMM ($1.77), MCD ($0.76), PFE ($0.64), AMD ($0.16), SBUX ($-0.61), V ($1.02).

FOMC Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview (Wildcard to Watch)
  • What Do Rising Treasury Yields Really Mean?

S&P 500 futures are down roughly 1% this morning tracking European shares lower after German trade data showed a much larger than anticipated drop in exports during the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic in April.

Eurozone GDP and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slightly beat expectations however German exports declined by the most on record in April, tumbling by -24.0% on the month which is weighing heavily on EU shares today.

Looking into today’s session, there are two lesser followed economic reports due to be released: April JOLTS (E: 5.750M) and Wholesale Trade (E: 0.4%) which are not likely to move markets while there are no Fed speakers as the June FOMC Meeting Begins today.

With tomorrow’s Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference coming into focus, it is possible we see a continued wave of profit taking today, especially given the disappointing economic data out of Europe, however a sense of “Fed paralysis” should keep the losses somewhat limited.

Fed Meeting Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

S&P futures are up 1% this morning, tracking European shares higher as economies around the globe begin to reopen while investor focus shifts ahead to the slew of earnings releases in the coming days as well as multiple central bank meetings this week.

Coronavirus headlines were mostly positive overnight as there were reports of expanded testing capabilities in the U.S., the growth rate of new cases continues to slow in the U.S., and states across the country are beginning the process of lifting COVID-19 containment policies.

The FOMC meeting begins today (concluding tomorrow) while there are a few notable economic reports to watch this morning: International Trade in Goods (E: -%51.5B), S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.4%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 95.0).

Investors will be increasingly focused on earnings this week as we approach the peak of the Q1 reporting season.

There are several major corporations, from manufacturing to tech sectors, releasing results today including: MMM ($2.02), PEP ($ 1.02), PFE ($0.71), UPS ($1.23), CAT ($1.77), MRK ($1.39), LUV (-$0.48), BP ($0.28),  AMD ($0.18), GOOGL ($10.97), F (-$0.10), CHRW ($0.71).

Fed Preview and Key Levels to Watch in Yields

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Did Dr. Copper Just Offer an All-Clear Signal?
  • Key Levels that Will Tell Us, in Real-Time, Whether Events this Week Are Positive or Negative for Stocks

Global markets are trading with a notable risk-off tone this morning as investors position into several key events later this week including the Fed and ECB announcements and next Sunday’s deadline for more U.S. tariffs on China.

Economic data overnight was positive as the Current Conditions and Business Expectations components of the German ZEW Survey were better than feared while the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was 104.7 vs. (E) 102.9.

Looking into today’s session, thing should be quiet with the December Fed meeting getting underway however there is one economic report to watch: Productivity and Costs (E: -0.2%, 3.5%) and there is a 10 Year T-Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET this afternoon. If the auction triggers a significant reaction in yields, that will affect stocks.

There have not been any notable developments on the trade war this week and “no news is bad news” right now given the looming Dec. 15th deadline for the U.S. to add more tariffs to Chinese imports. As a result, the market will continue to look for any clues regarding progress towards a “phase one deal” that will avoid additional tariffs and potentially roll back existing ones.

Fed Meeting Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

Stock futures are slightly lower and bonds are rising modestly as investors digest yesterday’s new all-time highs in the S&P, eye Brexit developments, and position ahead of the week’s long list of catalysts.

British PM Boris Johnson is making a new push for a general election in early December, increasing the odds of a no-deal Brexit which is weighing on stocks this morning.

There are a few economic reports to watch this morning including S&P Case-Shiller HPI (-0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 128.6), and Pending Home Sales (E: -0.2%) but the market’s reaction is expected to be limited as the FOMC meeting begins which will likely lead to a degree of “trader paralysis” today.

Meanwhile, earnings season remains in full swing and there are several notable reports due today which could influence sector trading:  MA ($2.01), MRK ($1.25), PFE ($0.63), GM ($1.31), AMD ($0.18), and AMGN ($3.51).

Fed Meeting Preview and Saudi Oil Update

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Two Sectors that Will Benefit from the Saudi Oil Attacks
  • What the Attacks on Saudi Oil Infrastructure Mean for Oil

Futures are suffering mild losses this morning while international markets were little changed overnight as oil prices are stabilizing, economic data was mixed, and investor focus is shifting to the Fed.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey showed the Current Conditions index fell to –19.9 vs. (E) -15.0 but the Business Expectations figure was encouragingly –22.5 vs. (E) -38.0, easing concerns about the future outlook for the EU economy.

The PBOC left rates unchanged overnight, disappointing some investors looking for a cut after a recent string of soft economic data which weighed on Asian markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) and the Housing Market Index (E: 66) but a sense of “Fed paralysis” is already falling over the markets as focus turns to tomorrow’s announcement and press conference.

Lastly, after oil’s huge moves yesterday, the energy complex will continue to get attention and with the geopolitical situation still very fluid, oil prices and U.S.-Iran tensions could affect trading in stocks today.

Will the Fed Cut Rates?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

U.S. futures and most international equity markets were mildly lower overnight after corporate results from GOOGL missed estimates while economic data was mixed.

China’s PMI Manufacturing Index fell to 50.2 from 50.8 in April (but importantly remained above 50, in expansion territory) while the Eurozone Q1 GDP Flash was 1.2% vs. (E) 1.1% year-over-year which helped ease recently rising concerns about weakness in EU growth metrics.

Looking into today’s session, the calendar remains busy however with the FOMC Meeting getting underway, it would take a material surprise in economic data or multiple earnings shocks to really move the market ahead of tomorrow’s Announcement and Powell’s press conference.

Economically, there are four releases to watch this morning: Employment Cost Index (E: 0.7%), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.3%), Consumer Confidence (E: 127.0) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.7%).

On the earnings front, there are several notable companies releasing reports today including: GE ($0.09), MA ($1.67), BP ($0.68%), GM ($1.09), PFE ($0.76), and STX ($0.72) before the open and AAPL ($2.37) and AMD ($0.05) after the market close.