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Jobs Report Preview

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Jobs Report Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are modestly higher ahead of the jobs report thanks to good AAPL earnings and solid economic data.

AAPL posted better than expected earnings and boosted its buyback.  The stock is rallying 6% pre-open and that’s helping to push futures higher.

Economically, the UK Services PMI was better than expected (55.0 vs. (E) 54.9) implying solid growth.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are: 243K Job Adds, 3.8% Unemployment Rate and 0.3% m/m and 4.0% y/y Wage Growth.  To help extend this late week bounce, markets will need to see the jobs number modestly below expectations (preferably on all three metrics) to imply solid growth but still increase the likelihood of a September rate cut.  If the jobs report prints “Too Hot” across all three metrics, don’t be shocked if Thursday’s rally is given back and then some.

Outside of the jobs report, there are two Fed speakers today:  Williams & Goolsbee (7:45 a.m. ET).  Williams will be the more important of the two as he’s part of Fed leadership and if he brings up rate hikes again, look for an uptick in volatility.

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Was the Fed Decision Positive? (No, Not Really)

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Was the Fed Decision Positive? (No, Not Really): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was the Fed Decision Positive? (No, Not Really)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are solidly higher following a mostly quiet night of news as markets further digested Fed Chair Powell pushing back on the idea of future rate hikes.

Economic data showed more buoyant inflation globally as Swiss CPI rose 1.4% vs. (E) 1.2% while the Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI met estimates.

Today the focus will remain on economic data as we get two notable economic reports, Jobless Claims (E: 211K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 3.3%). If both are “hot” (and especially if Unit Labor Costs are high) then expect higher yields and more pressure on stocks ahead of tomorrow’s Jobs Report.

Earnings season is winding down but there’s an important report via AAPL (E: $1.51) after the close, while I’ll also be watching SQ ($0.72), COIN (E: $1.20) and BKNG ($14.03) for any insight into the state of the U.S. consumer.

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A Flash of Fear: FOMC Technical Preview

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A Flash of Fear: FOMC Technical Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Technical Preview – A Flash of Fear in the Market (Shareable PDF By Request)
  • More Hot Inflation Data: Employment Cost Index and Case Shiller/FHFA Home Price Indices
  • Chart: Stagflation Concerns Bring Focus Back to the Yield Curve

Futures are lower as stagflation fears continue to weigh on risk assets while earnings were mixed overnight with AMZN reporting strong quarterly cloud sales (the stock is up 2%+) while AMD’s AI-chip demand forecast disappointed (the stock is down 6%+).

Economically, the U.K.’s April Manufacturing PMI was better than feared, rising to 49.1 vs. (E) 48.7 which is helping the FTSE buck the heavy trend across global equity markets this morning.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on economic data early with the ADP Private Payrolls (E: 175K), ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 50.0), Construction Spending (E: 0.3%), and JOLTS (E: 8.7 million) all due to be released by 10 a.m. ET.

Additionally, the Treasury Refunding Announcement (8:30 a.m. ET) for which estimates sparked some volatility earlier in the week, could move bond markets and subsequently impact equities in the pre-market.

In the afternoon, focus will turn to the Fed with the FOMC Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Earnings season takes a breather today before AAPL and other tech companies report tomorrow but there are still a few notables to monitor today including: MA ($3.22), CVS ($1.69), QCOM ($2.31).

Bottom line, there are a lot of potential catalysts for markets today but the key to stocks stabilizing will be economic data that contradicts recent signs of stagflation emerging in the economy and a benign Fed day with an as-expected to dovish announcement and no surprises from Chair Powell. Otherwise, we could easily see a test or breakdown through the April lows in the S&P 500 today.

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Why Stocks Have Really Pulled Back

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Why Stocks Have Really Pulled Back: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Have Really Pulled Back
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will the Fed and Growth Data Make the Pullback Worse This Week?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  A Very Busy Week (Fed Wednesday, Jobs Report Friday)

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news as markets digest last week’s gains ahead of a busy and important week of catalysts.

Economically, Spanish Core HICP (their CPI) rose 2.9% vs. (E) 3.3% y/y, offering a positive note on inflation.

Geo-politically, Secretary of State Blinken is in the Mid-East to push for another Gaza ceasefire and oil is down slightly in response.

Looking forward, this is a very busy and important week filled with numerous potential catalysts including Wednesday’s Fed decision and Friday’s jobs report, but the week starts slowly from a data standpoint as there are no notable reports today.

On earnings, we get some important updates from semiconductor companies today and reports we’re watching include: ON ($1.04), NXPI ($3.16), SOFI ($0.01).

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Did Powell Really Get More Hawkish on Tuesday?

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Did Powell Really Get More Hawkish on Tuesday? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did Powell Really Get More Hawkish on Tuesday?
  • EIA Update and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are slightly higher on better-than-expected earnings and following a generally quiet night of news.

Taiwan Semi-Conductor (TSMC) posted solid earnings and that’s helping to offset yesterday’s disappointing ASML report and giving tech stocks (and global stocks) a mild boost.

Looking forward, today is a busy day of data, Fed speak and earnings.

Starting with the economic data, the market needs Goldilocks reports to help stocks and bonds stabilize, which means readings at or below expectations, especially on the price indices in the Philly Fed survey.  Key reports today include:  Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Philly Fed (E: 0.0) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.18 M).

Turning to the Fed, there are three speakers today:  Bowman (9:05 a.m. ET), Williams (9:15 a.m. ET) and Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET).  Williams is the most important of the three, but if the commentary reinforces there are no near-term rate cuts coming, that will be an incremental headwind on stocks and bonds.

Finally, on the earnings front, the calendar continues to heat up and key reports today include:  TSMC ($1.29), NFLX ($4.51), PPG ($1.86), WAL ($1.70).

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A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart

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A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart
  • Dip-Buying Becomes Riskier in Late-Cycle Environments
  • Housings Starts Plunge in March – Chart

Futures are higher this morning as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense but stable, inflation data was largely as-expected, and good consumer-focused earnings are helping offset soft sales from chip-maker ASML.

Economically, EU Core CPI met estimates at 2.9% while the U.K.’s Core CPI figure was “warm” at 4.2% vs. (E) 4.1% but neither report is materially impacting the general “higher for longer” central bank policy stance in place right now.

There are no notable economic reports today and just two late-day Fed speakers: Mester (5:30 p.m. ET), Bowman (7:15 p.m. ET).

That will leave trader focus on the Treasury’s 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET as weak demand would add upward pressure on yields and pressure stocks.

Additionally, earnings season continues with TRV ($4.75), CFG ($0.75), CSX ($0.45), and DFS ($2.98) reporting today, however, none of those names should have a significant impact on the broader market unless there is a glaring disappointment or upside surprise.

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CPI Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly

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CPI Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • CPI Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly
  • Where to Find Rate Cut Probabilities

Stock futures are modestly higher this morning as the bond market steadies ahead of tomorrow’s key inflation data while financial newswires were mostly quiet overnight.

Overseas, Taiwan’s headline CPI fell sharply from 3.1% to 2.1% vs (E) 2.5% in March. Domestically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 88.5 vs. (E) 89.9.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak which is setting up a fairly quiet morning in the markets.

The one potential catalysts on the calendar today is the 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Equity markets are watching yields closely here, so if today’s auction is weak and yields move higher this afternoon that will weigh on stocks and other risk assets. However, moves should be limited as traders position into tomorrow’s inflation data.

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The Most Important Short-Term Market Indicator

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The Most Important Short-Term Market Indicator: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Most Important Short-Term Market Indicator
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will CPI Decline Further?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Inflation in Focus This Week (And It Needs to Keep Falling)

Futures are flat following a mostly quiet weekend as markets digest Friday’s rally and look ahead to Wednesday’s CPI.

Geo-political tensions eased slightly and that’s weighing modestly on oil prices as Iran said it would not retaliate again Israel if a cease-fire in Gaza is reached.

Economically, German Industrial Production solidly beat estimates (2.1% vs. (E) 0.3%).

Today will be a mostly quiet day as there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Kashkari (7:00 p.m. ET), but he speaks after the close.  So, digestion of Friday’s rebound and positioning ahead of Wednesday’s CPI will likely drive trading today.

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Updated Risk/Reward Outlook

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Updated Risk/Reward Outlook: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Risk/Reward Outlook

Futures are modestly lower following a quiet weekend of news as investors digest last week’s Fed decision, AI news and economic data.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated over the weekend he only expected one rate cut in 2024, pushing back slightly on the 2024 dot (which showed three cuts).

Oil rose above $81/bbl on rising geo-political tensions as Russia attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Today there are two notable economic reports, Chicago Fed (E: -0.50) and New Home Sales (E: 675k) but they’d have to be big surprises (positively or negatively) to move markets.  There are also two Fed speakers, Bostic (8:25 a.m.) and Cook (10:30 a.m.) and if they both push back on the idea of three cuts in 2024 that would slightly weigh on stocks.

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The Fed’s “Dovish Upgrade” Dilemma

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The Fed’s “Dovish Upgrade” Dilemma : Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Fed’s “Dovish Upgrade” Dilemma
  • Economic Data Takeaways – Goldilocks Narrative at Risk
  • Chart – Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Surge

Futures are tentatively higher this morning as mostly favorable economic data overnight is helping offset a sharp drop in the yuan and subsequent volatility in Chinese markets.

Economically, Japanese Core CPI cooled down to 3.2% y/y vs. (E) 3.3% while the German Ifo Survey came in stronger than expected at 87.8 vs. (E) 86.0. U.K Retail Sales, meanwhile, were flat vs. (E) -0.5% in February after a 3.6% rise in January.

There are no notable economic reports today, but Fed Chair Powell will provide opening remarks and participate in the “Fed Listens” event that begins at 9:00 a.m. ET covering the economy’s transition to the post-pandemic environment. The Fed’s Jefferson and Bowman will also partake in the live discussion.

Bottom line, focus will return to the Fed today, and anything officials say that challenges the idea of three rate cuts in 2024, amid a stronger economy will likely spur some profit taking after this week’s robust post-Fed decision rally.

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