We must acknowledge the challenges ahead, and be ready with a plan to insulate ourselves from volatility and protect portfolios…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
The market has, to a degree, called the Fed’s bluff on rate hike plans as rate hike expectations were dialed back in the immediate wake of the dot plot release and economic projections, but the Fed is indeed tightening policy and regardless of the pace of the trend, yields are going higher in the months and quarters ahead, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures recovered from overnight losses as investors digest President Biden’s State of the Union speech, and a slight de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Geopolitically, President Biden announced that the U.S. would close its airspace to Russian planes during the open of his State of the Union address, however overnight, Russia expressed willingness to resume talks with Ukrainian leadership today and that is raising hopes for a ceasefire deal, fueling moderate risk-on money flows.
Economically, the Eurozone HICP Flash was hot with the headline jumping to 5.8% vs. (E) 5.3% which is adding to angst about stagflation.
Today, there are a few data points to watch including: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 14.6M) and the first look at official February jobs data in the form of the ADP Employment Report (E: 320K).
Additionally, there are two Fed speakers around the time of the open: Evans (9:00 a.m. ET) and Bullard (9:30 a.m. ET) before Fed Chair Powell will begin his semi-annual Congressional testimony at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Bottom line, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue to dominate the headlines and markets today, and any de-escalation could trigger a further relief rally. However, investors will be watching Powell closely for any signs of a change in policy which could also impact markets.
The most important factors remain Fed tightening and economic growth…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are sharply lower as markets react to additional sanctions against Russia, including removing select Russian banks from the SWIFT system. The additional sanctions and historic isolation of Russia by the global community are increasing economic uncertainty.
Positively, Ukraine and Russia are having peace talks today, and hopefully, that leads to a ceasefire sooner than later.
There were no notable economic reports overnight and no material economic reports today, so Russia/Ukraine headlines will drive trading, and any reports of a cease-fire will be a positive for markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are down close to 3% as Russia launched an attack on Ukraine beyond the Donbas region.
Early Thursday morning Russia launched missiles at numerous targets in Ukraine and landed troops throughout the country, dramatically escalating the conflict.
Commodity prices shot higher, including oil, which is up more than 7%
Today focus will obviously be on the Russian attack and how far it goes, along with the severity of the international sanctions against Russia. Anything that implies a further escalation will weigh further on markets and send commodity prices even higher.
Outside of Russia/Ukraine, there are numerous economic reports and Fed speakers: Revised Q4 GDP (E: 7.0%), Jobless Claims (E: 230K). Fed Speak: Barkin (9:00 a.m., 12:00 p.m. ET), Bostic (11:10 a.m. ET), Mester (12:00 p.m. ET), Waller (8:00 p.m. ET).
Traders continue to monitor the situation in Ukraine and look ahead to the Fed minutes release…Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye said in a note Wednesday morning. Click here to read the full article.
The reasons stocks are down on that news is that people fear that is the start of a full-on invasion of Ukraine. And, if that happens, then we can expect a serious test of the January lows… Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye told Yahoo Finance. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are down slightly this morning but well off the overnight lows as traders digest the latest geopolitical developments between Russia and Ukraine.
Russian President Putin recognized the independence of two “breakaway” regions in eastern Ukraine yesterday, but the risk of a full scale invasion of Ukraine still remains low.
Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released including: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.1%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.0%), PMI Composite Flash (E: 51.9), and Consumer Confidence (E: 110.0). There is also one Fed speaker on the schedule: Bostic (3:30 p.m. ET).
Finally, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and with the underlying market focus still on future Fed policy, a soft outcome (hawkish) could add to the current geopolitically fueled market volatility.
Regarding Ukraine, investors will await the announcement of new sanctions from the west against Russia, and depending on how severe they are, it could add to the selling pressure on stocks today. Additionally, as of now, Blinken and Lavrov are still scheduled to meet this week but if that meeting is canceled that will suggest a more severe conflict is imminent, resulting in more risk-off money flows.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly weaker as negative headlines on Russia/Ukraine weighed on sentiment.
Russia accused Ukraine of attacking Russian-back separatists in the Dontesk region of Ukraine, and analysts fear this could be the pretext for a larger military conflict if Russia moves to annex Dontesk, (this would be a replay of what happened with Crimea in 2014).
Russia/Ukraine headlines are driving short term trading and that will remain the case today, with any headlines implying diplomacy causing a rally, and any headlines implying conflict causing a sell off.
Beyond geopolitics, however, we get several pieces of economic data, including Jobless Claims (E: 224K), Housing Starts (E: 1.708M) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 19.7) and as has been the case the market will be looking for stability in the data.
Finally, we also get two Fed speakers, Bullard (again) at 11:00 a.m. ET and Mester at 5:00 p.m. ET.
