Posts

Why Didn’t Stocks Fall Yesterday?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Didn’t Stocks Fall Yesterday?

Futures are tracking global shares higher amid hopes that continued U.S.-Iran talks this week will yield a lasting ceasefire and end to the war in the Middle East, critically including a sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell -3.0 to 95.8 vs. (E) 97.5 amid a spike in the Uncertainty Index.

Today, focus will remain on any news or developments regarding plans for the U.S. and Iran to resume ceasefire negotiations with rumors that President Trump may be in attendance and directly involved in the talks.

Additionally, we will get another important inflation report in the form of the March Producer Price Index release ahead of the bell (E: 1.2% m/m, 4.7% y/y) and there is a  52-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on bond traders’ Fed policy expectations.

There are also two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Goolsbee (12:15 p.m. ET) and Barr (12:45 p.m. ET) but they are unlikely to move markets.

Finally, Q1 earnings season continues to get underway with multiple big banks and large cap U.S. companies reporting quarterly results today including JPM ($5.46), BLK ($11.96), C ($2.64), WFC ($1.57), JNJ ($2.67), and ACI ($0.39).

Investors will be looking for favorable geopolitical news, “cool” inflation data, and strong earnings today in order for the robust April rally to continue.

 

It’s Not Too Late to Send Clients a Quarterly Letter!

Our Q1 ’26 Quarterly Letter was delivered to subscribers last week, complete with compliance backup and citations.

We continue to get feedback about how it is saving advisors time and helping them communicate with clients in this volatile environment!

You can view our Q4 ’25 Quarterly Letter here. To learn more about the product (including price), please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

 

An Important Week for Two Pillars of the Rally

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Important Week for Two Pillars of the Rally
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Fed Policy and AI News Fuel Push Markets to New Highs?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Labor Market Updates (Is It Stable?)

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet weekend of news and as investors look forward to important Fed and AI events later this week.

Investor focus, as we start the week, is on Wednesday’s Fed decision, ORCL/AVGO earnings and a Chat GPT update.

Economically, foreign data was better than expected as Chinese exports beat estimates (rising 5.9% vs. (E) 4.0%) as did German Industrial Production (1.8% vs. (E) 0.1%).

This week will be a busy one but today should be relatively quiet in the markets as there are no notable economic reports and just one earnings report after the close, TOL ($4.87).

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes on April 3rd, 2023

/in , , /by

Surprise Oil Production Cuts Risk ‘Exacerbating’ Inflation Pressures And Harsher Fed Policy, Experts Warn

The surprise announcement also suggests OPEC+ may be getting more cautious about its outlook for global oil demand given the elevated threat of a potentially deep recession looming, says Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch on October 17th, 2022

/in , /by

Oil futures settle slightly lower, extending last week’s sharp loss

“The backdrop of sticky high inflation resulting in increasingly more hawkish Fed policy expectations for the foreseeable future and the subsequent rise in recession fears will likely keep a lid on WTI in the low to mid $90s,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks on September 2nd, 2022

/in , , /by

Higher-than-expected Jobs Report Not Enough To Push Stocks, Cryptos Green

The question for markets here is, at what point do investors begin to cheer the resilience of economic growth this year in the face of historically aggressive Fed policy tightening that is now beginning to show signs of being effective in capping and likely reducing inflation pressures? Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote in a note Friday. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Kiplinger on February 9th, 2022

/in , , /by

Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Recovery Continues as Comms, Tech Rebound

Bottom line, inflation remains the single biggest potential influence over Fed policy, and Fed policy will determine whether stocks continue to rally, or decline…said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

A New Risk For Bond Portfolios?

/in /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Powell’s Senate Testimony Takeaways (Not a Dovish Catalyst Near Term)
  • Did the Fed Quietly Make A Long Term Policy Change? (It Means Higher Inflation Could Be Coming)

Futures are marginally lower following the escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan.  Outside of geo-politics, it was a quiet night.

Pakistan reportedly shot down two Indian fighter jets and carried out air strikes in Kashmir in the biggest uptick in tensions between the two nuclear nations in decades.

Economic data was spare as Euro Zone money supply slightly missed estimates (3.9% vs. (E) 4.0%).

Today the media headlines will focus on the Cohen testimony and the Trump/Kim summit in Vietnam, but neither event will impact markets.

So, we’ll remain focused on Powell’s House Financial Services Committee Testimony (10:00 a.m. ET) to see if there are any more clues about balance sheet reduction, and we’ll also watch Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%) for any signs of stabilization in housing.