Posts

Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate

/in , /by

Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate (What Happens If Biden’s Replaced?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Economic Data Keep Growth Concerns At Bay?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report Friday, ISM PMIs Today and Wednesday.

Futures are slightly higher ahead of a busy and holiday-shortened week of data, as French election results weren’t as bad as feared while global economic data was mixed.

National Rally slightly underperformed in the first round of voting in the French election and the other major parties have agreed to form a coalition to prevent it from becoming an outright majority, reducing French political risks.

Economically, EU and UK May Manufacturing PMIs were mixed but importantly didn’t raise any growth concerns.

This is a busy and important week for economic data as the reports will either increase growth concerns or push back on them.  Today the key report is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.1) and the stronger this number, the better for markets.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Today!

Our Q2 ’24 Quarterly Letter will be released today.

We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis.

You can view our Q1 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Oil has recovered from its early June pullback to test seven-week highs

/in , /by

Oil has recovered from its early June pullback to test seven-week highs: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices settle at highest since April on brighter demand prospects

Oil has recovered from its early June pullback to test seven-week highs on “price-supportive rhetoric” from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

The initial “knee-jerk selloff” reaction to the June 2 decision by OPEC+ to phase out voluntary oil-production cuts after the third quarter was “largely reversed and seen as overdone,” Richey told MarketWatch. OPEC+ leadership “confirmed that they will remain flexible and only reduce their voluntary output cuts if market conditions warranted, and clarified increasing production is not necessarily a base-case expectation right now,” he said.

“Evidence of strong domestic demand at the start of the U.S. summer driving season, rising geopolitical tensions overseas and renewed hopes for a perfectly executed [economic] soft landing” by the Federal Reserve have also contributed to oil’s price rebound, Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on June 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone

/in , /by

Investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Are stock-market investors losing faith in ‘immaculate disinflation’?

That’s a sign that investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Monday note.

While the S&P 500 rallied 1.58% last week, the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.25%, the Dow industrials lost 0.54% and RSP (S&P 500 equal weight) declined 0.53%. “The reason the ‘rest’ of the market declined last week was that while disinflation is occurring, it may not be ‘immaculate’ and that’s a potential negative for stocks.,” he wrote.

“Here’s the point: If inflation falls because growth is slowing, that’s not an automatic positive for stocks anymore and we saw that this past week as sectors and stocks that weren’t attached to AI declined, despite the drop in CPI and rising Fed cut expectations,” he wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 17th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Chart: Multiple Expansion Lifts Scenario Targets

/in , /by

Market Multiple Chart: Multiple Expansion Lifts Scenario Targets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart:  Multiple Expansion Lifts Scenario Targets

Futures are solidly higher thanks to a surprise rate cut from the SNB and despite worsening geo-political tensions.

The Swiss National Bank surprisingly cut rates 25 bps, citing easing inflation pressures, as the global rate cut cycle gets underway.

Geo-politically, the leader of Hezbollah threatened Israel with war, underscoring rising tensions between Israel and Lebanon.

Today will be a moderately busy day of data and news.  First, there is a Bank of England Rate Decision and while no change in rates is expected, the BOE may signal it’s ready to cut rates in the next meeting or two.

Economically, there are two important reports today: Jobless Claims (E: 235K) and Philly Fed (E: 5.2).  Given the recent data showing a loss of momentum in economic growth, investors will want to see better than expected readings (while soft readings will strengthen the narrative for slowing growth).

Finally, the parade of Fed speakers continues this week with Kashkari (8:45 a.m. ET) and Barkin (4:00 p.m. ET) but unless one of them openly discuss rate hikes, they shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview (All About the Dots)

/in , /by

FOMC Preview (All About the Dots): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview (All About the Dots)

Futures are slightly higher following more solid tech earnings and despite some stagflationary economic data.

ORCL earnings beat estimates and the stock is up 9% pre-market, helping to support stock futures.

Economically, Chinese inflation ran slightly hot while UK Industrial Production badly missed estimates.

Today brings the two key events of the week via CPI and the Fed Decision.  For CPI, estimates are:  E: 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y, Core CPI (0.3% m/m, 3.5% y/y).  The key here is that core CPI is flat or declines from last month.  If we see a bounce back above 3.6% that will likely be a material surprise negative.

For the Fed, there is no change expected to rates and focus at 2:00 will be on the dots (and how much they changed since March).  Anything from the Fed (dots or Powell commentary) that makes a September rate cut more likely will help stocks, while anything that makes it less likely will be a headwind.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Prices had sold off with risk assets in the immediate wake of the U.S. jobs data

/in , /by

Prices had sold off with risk assets: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil prices fall for a third week in a row

Prices had sold off with risk assets in the immediate wake of the U.S. jobs data for May as they were “perceived as ‘hot’ and hawkish for Fed policy” and “ultimately negative for growth and consumer demand,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. “But futures have since recovered as the details of the report were not nearly as strong as the headline would suggest.”

“In the near term, an uncertain and potentially fluid OPEC+ backdrop, simmering geopolitical tensions and perceived resilience could support oil prices and even see a retest of $80 [a] barrel” by WTI crude, he said. “But looking at the longer-term setup for oil, it is less than encouraging with all the telltale signs of a looming recession falling into place at a time when OPEC+ is likely maxed out with regard to their willingness to curb production any further than they already have.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 7th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The lack of certainty about future production

/in , /by

The lack of certainty about future production: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices fall for a third consecutive week

“The lack of certainty about future production targets, as soon as this fall, by major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia prompted a ‘sell-now-ask-questions-later’ reaction” earlier this week, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on June 7th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What’s in Today’s Report: When Does Bad Economic Data Become Bad for Stocks?

/in , /by

Jobs Day Technical Preview & Wildcards to Watch: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • When Does Bad Economic Data Become Bad for Stocks?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  An Important Week:  Fed Decision (Including the Dots), CPI and AI Updates.
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Do We See Real Movement in Rate Cut Expectations?

Futures are modestly lower as global bond yields rise following surprise political news over the weekend.

Far right political parties outperformed expectations in EU elections while French President Macron called for surprise snap elections.  The results are pushing French and German bond yields higher, which are pulling Treasury yields up in sympathy and weighing slightly on futures.

Outside of the political results, it was a mostly quiet weekend of news as investors look ahead to an important week of AI catalysts, the FOMC decision and the latest CPI report.

This is a busy and important week for markets as it will either confirm current (positive) expectations on Fed rate cuts and inflation or challenge them and increase volatility.  That said, the week starts quietly as there are no notable economic reports today and the key event is likely to be AAPL’s Worldwide Developer Conference keynote announcement, which is focused on AI.  If it’s underwhelming, tech could lag and slightly weigh on markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The data is starting to show a potential soft landing

/in , /by

The data is starting to show a potential soft landing: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Only Two S&P 500 Sectors Are Rising

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the data is starting to show a potential soft landing, though where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.

“A soft landing was always a slowing of growth that sort of didn’t get too bad,” Essaye says. “So it appears we are kind of arriving at that point. Now, the issue is that every hard landing started with a soft landing. You don’t just jump from growth to contraction.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 5th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

My biggest concern for this market remains that we get an unexpected economic slowdown

/in , /by

My biggest concern for this market remains that we get an unexpected economic slowdown: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Stock Market Needs a Strong Economy to Keep Rising. The Data Are Getting Worse.

“My biggest concern for this market remains that we get an unexpected economic slowdown because that’s one of the few events that can legitimately cause a material correction in stocks,” writes Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, noting that his worry ticked up last week due to corporate earnings.

However, Essaye warns, it doesn’t always work so neatly. “Twice in my career I have seen investors cheer a slowdown, and both times the Fed was not able to cut rates at the right time to prevent the slowing from becoming a broader economic contraction,” he wrote. “That doesn’t mean they can’t do it this time, but catching a falling knife doesn’t work in real life, it doesn’t work in stock trading, and I’ve never seen it work in monetary policy.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 4th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.