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Jobs Report Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • A Historic Quarter for the Energy Markets

Stock futures are trading modestly lower this morning after the S&P 500 registered its best quarterly gain in over 20 years in Q2 while economic data was mostly better than expected overnight.

Economically, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI firmed to 51.2 in June from 50.7 in May while the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.4 from 39.4 in May pointing to a continued rebound in economic activity last month.

Today, we will get our first look at June jobs data with the ADP Employment Report (E: 3.500M) due out ahead of the bell while the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 49.0) and Construction Spending (E: 0.8%) will both be released shortly after the open.

Later in the day, the only real catalyst to watch for is the release of the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes at  2:30 p.m. ET as traders will be looking for any additional insight into the Fed’s future stimulus plans or view of the state of the economy.

Finding Value With a Positive Catalyst (Not Energy or Financials)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Stocks Care About Coronavirus Stats on Wednesday?
  • Where to Find Value with a Positive Catalyst In This Market (Not Energy or Financials)
  • Oil Update and EIA Analysis

Futures are modestly lower but well off overnight lows as coronavirus cases continued to surge in the U.S.

New daily cases in the U.S. rose above 36k and are right back at the peak of new daily cases set in late April.

Meanwhile, corporations continue to respond, as DIS delayed the opening of its California park (and a delay in Florida is becoming more likely).

Today there are two economic reports, Durable Goods (E: 8.5%) and Final Q1 GDP (E: -5.0%) but neither should move markets as they are “old” data from May and Q1.  There are also several Fed speakers, including Kaplan (9:30 a.m. ET), Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET) and Mester (12:00 p.m. ET), but again none of them should move markets, either.

So, as has been the case, trends in coronavirus, and specifically the response from companies (do they delay reopening plans?) will drive markets.  Overnight, S&P 500 futures dropped to support at 3,000, so that’ll be an important level to watch today, and if needs to hold, otherwise this selloff could gain momentum.

Seizing Long Term Opportunities in Energy

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Seizing Long Term Opportunities in Energy

Futures are higher this morning while international equity markets are mixed as strong tech earnings offset soft economic data ahead of the FOMC Announcement today.

GOOGL is up 8% in pre-market trade after reporting strong Q1 results after the close yesterday while the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index fell more than expected, down to 67.0 vs. (E) 75.0 as the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has weighed heavily on business activity.

Today, there are two economic reports to watch: GDP (E: -3.8%) and Pending Home Sales Index (E: -5.4%) but the main focus during the primary session will be on the FOMC Meeting Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) followed up by Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET).

Earnings season also remains in full swing with: BA (-$2.04), MA ($1.72), HUM ($4.84), NOC ($5.42), YUM $0.64), SHW ($4.01), and VLO (-$0.19) all reporting ahead of the bell while MSFT ($1.27), FB ($1.72), QCOM ($0.80), and TSLA (-$0.53) release their Q1 results after the close.

The main thing investors are looking for today is reassurance from the Fed, specifically that they remain committed to doing “whatever it takes” to support the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic and are focused on restoring the economy to its previous state as quickly as possible.

Sevens Report Co-editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on December 17, 2019

The “solid economic data in the U.S. and abroad” paired with phase one/phase two trade deal optimism helped fuel the rally from a fundamental standpoint. From a technical standpoint, recently strong upside momentum is creating a ‘chase’ higher effect, further lifting…” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Oil Rig

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Interviewed with TD Ameritrade Network on November 21, 2019

Sevens Report co-editor Tyler Richey was interviewed by Ben Lichtenstein from TD Ameritrade Network, discussing oil, energy trade war, commodities and more…Click here to watch the full interview.

TD Ameritrade Interview

Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on September 11, 2019

“The two most beat-up sectors in the August pullback (energy and financials) both rebounded hard yesterday and…” wrote Tom Essay, president of the Sevens Report, in a Tuesday note. Click here to read the full article.

Oil Rig

Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on August 13, 2019

“Looking ahead though, the outlook for oil remains neutral at best right now as global growth concerns remain the single biggest…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Oil Tanks

Tyler Richey co-editor of Sevens Report Research Quoted in MarketWatch on July 1, 2019

“The trade truce is a positive and the policy extension by OPEC+ keeps the supply side argument in favor of the bulls, but there remain too many unknowns about…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Building

Tyler Richey Appeared on TD Ameritrade Network on May 30, 2019

Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report sat down with Ben Lichtenstein from TD Ameritrade Network to talk about oil, corn futures, energy market and more…Click here to watch the full interview.

TD Ameritrade interview clip

Tom Essaye Quoted in Financial Times on May 1, 2019

Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, said a modest but noticeable 539,000-barrel draw from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — just the second time the US has tapped its SPR this year…Click here to read the full article.