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Market Multiple Table: All About Growth

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Market Multiple Table: All About Growth: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – All About Growth
  • Chart – Semiconductor Stocks Bounce, But Long Term Technicals Deteriorate

Stock futures are tracking global equity markets higher as traders shrug off an earnings miss from AI-proxy SMCI (stock down 14% pre-market) and instead focus on a pullback in the yen and sharp drop in the VIX.

Economically, German Industrial Production rose 1.4% vs. (E) 1.0%, further easing global recession worries.

Today, there is one second-tiered economic report due to be released in the afternoon: Consumer Credit (E: $10.0B) but the data is unlikely to move markets.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Auction results that are strong could bolster recession worries while a weak auction could rekindle “higher for longer” policy rate worries.

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down with only a few notable reports today including: DIS ($1.20), CVS ($1.74), LYFT ($0.19).

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Futures are plunging globally on snowballing concerns about economic growth

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Futures are plunging globally on snowballing concerns about economic growth: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

U.S. Stock Futures Plunging in Perfect Storm for Market Selloff

“Futures are plunging globally on snowballing concerns about economic growth following Friday’s soft jobs report,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report research. “Global growth concerns are the main reason behind the stock weakness but technical factors are majorly at play.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on August 5th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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We started the landing a couple months ago

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We started the landing a couple months ago: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Market Is Finally Paying Attention to Slowing Growth. That Doesn’t Mean We’re Headed for a Recession.

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye argues the latest data doesn’t rule out a soft landing, though some market participants had until recently ruled out a hard landing.

“We started the landing a couple months ago,” Essaye says. “It’s no different than when you’re on an actual plane. Sometimes the plane descends more quickly than other times, but that doesn’t mean that you’re crashing.”

Essaye argues summer jobs numbers are generally volatile, so he doesn’t expect the Fed to start panicking. He also notes other economic metrics like retail sales and durable goods, while slowing, are not showing extreme weakness. On the flip side, he thinks a market that had been oblivious to slowing growth could show signs of weakness in the coming weeks.

“The data was not that bad,” Essaye says. “The fact that the S&P 500 is down two and a half percent is more a function of the market’s complacency toward this risk, rather than it is the risk actually becoming substantially greater.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on August 2nd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Helped rekindle a bid in the AI-trade

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Helped rekindle a bid in the AI-trade: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Fed Rate Cut Hopes Aren’t Enough. What’s Moving the Stock Market Now.

“Better-than-expected corporate earnings from domestic chip giant AMD [Advanced Micro Devices] helped rekindle a bid in the AI-trade,” writes Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. 

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on August 1st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Why Stocks Dropped (What We’ve Been Worrying About)

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Why Stocks Dropped (What We’ve Been Worrying About): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped (What We’ve Been Worrying About)
  • Jobs Day (Updated Preview)

Futures are sharply lower and are extending Thursday’s losses following more disappointing tech earnings and as worries about economic growth grow.

Tech earnings disappointed last night as AMZN (down 8%), MCHP (down 5%) and INTC (down 20%, not a typo) all posted disappointing earnings or guidance.

Geo-politically, concerns are rising about a direct Israel/Iran conflict and that’s boosting oil and gold prices.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 180K Job Adds, 4.1% Unemployment Rate and 3.7% y/y Wage Growth.  Given Thursday’s poor economic data and the pop in growth concerns, a slightly better than expected number would be the best-case scenario for stocks and help support the “rest” of the market (tech will be under pressure today regardless because of earnings).  A number substantially below expectations (or a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% or higher) will increase growth concerns and further weigh on stocks.

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A Potentially Pivotal Week for the 2024 Bull Market

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A Potentially Pivotal Week for the 2024 Bull Market: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Potentially Pivotal Week for the 2024 Bull Market
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Important Updates on Growth, Rate Cuts and AI Enthusiasm
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report Friday, Fed Wednesday.

Futures are solidly higher on momentum from Friday’s rally and following a mostly quiet weekend of news, as investors look ahead to an important week for economic growth, rate cut expectations and mega cap tech earnings.

Geopolitically, tensions increased between Israel and Hezbollah following an attack in the Golan Heights and subsequent Israeli retaliation, but for now it’s not moving oil markets.

This week will give us a lot of color on the state of economic growth and a check on market rate cut expectations, but the important events don’t start until tomorrow (MSFT & AMD earnings) as there are no notable economic reports today.

Looking deeper at earnings, about 40% of the S&P 500 reports this week, including several major mega-cap tech stocks, but those important reports don’t start until tomorrow.  Today, we’ll be watching: MCD (E: $3.08), ON (E: $0.92) and SFM (E: $0.77).

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Investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth

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Investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Market Had Another Great Week—but Trouble Still Lurks

In fact, investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth, wrote Sevens Report President Tom Essaye on Friday.

“To be clear, I’m not saying a slowdown is upon us and I’m not saying that the economic expansion is ending. Growth is still solid. What I am saying is that the market calculus…may be changing a bit at the margin,” Essaye wrote.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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The data is starting to show a potential soft landing

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The data is starting to show a potential soft landing: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Only Two S&P 500 Sectors Are Rising

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the data is starting to show a potential soft landing, though where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.

“A soft landing was always a slowing of growth that sort of didn’t get too bad,” Essaye says. “So it appears we are kind of arriving at that point. Now, the issue is that every hard landing started with a soft landing. You don’t just jump from growth to contraction.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 5th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Investors still view ‘bad data as good for stocks’

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Investors still view ‘bad data as good for stocks’: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Nvidia Earnings Spark a Rally in Tech Stocks

“For now, investors still view ‘bad data as good for stocks’ as it makes rate cuts more likely so a small miss vs. expectations should extend the early rally,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 23rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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A high-frequency proxy for consumer spending

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A high-frequency proxy for consumer spending: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Recession-wary investors are watching gasoline demand for clues to consumer health

“Gasoline demand is being closely watched as a high-frequency proxy for consumer spending,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“Keeping an eye on the weekly gasoline supplied figure as a proxy for consumer demand for gasoline will be critical, especially relative to its four-week moving average to gauge the underlying trend in fuel demand, and compared with prior year’s levels for the corresponding reporting week,” Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on May 9th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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