Overall, “an improving outlook for the health of the U.S. economy in the wake of the January jobs report, and ongoing optimism about the positive demand impact of China’s rapid reopening process are offering support to global oil markets right now,” said the Sevens Report’s Richey. Click here to read the full article.
Now, Tom says, that ‘bear market rally’ is complete—having fooled enough people into thinking the bear market was over—and predicts more volatility and turbulence ahead with the big moves in tech to lead the major US indices lower. Click here to listen to the full interview.
“Global bond yields moved higher after Nikkei reported Kazuo Ueda will become the next BOJ governor, and not the ultra-dove Masayoshi Amamiya (who was expected),” wrote Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research and Andrew McCreath, founder at Forge First Asset Management, join BNN Bloomberg to discuss the latest large-cap earnings reports. Essaye says that Uber’s strength this season is a signal that life is getting back to normal and discusses how diversification will be imperative for companies to succeed amid the growth slowdown. Click here to watch the full interview.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly weaker following a rally in oil prices and a continued rise in bond yields overnight.
Oil rallied 2% after Russia announced it was voluntarily reducing output by 500k bpd while OPEC+ did not signal any intention to increase output to offset the reduction.
Global bond yields moved higher after Nikkei reported Kazuo Ueda will become the next BOJ governor, and not the ultra-dove Masayoshi Amamiya (who was expected).
Today focus will remain on the data and specifically University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 65.0) and the inflation expectations in the report (any further decline will be positive for stocks). We also get two Fed speakers: Waller (12:30 p.m. ET) and Harker (4:00 p.m. ET) and markets will want to see if they echo the hawkish tone from regional Fed presidents this week.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower this morning as investors continue to digest Powell’s commentary from yesterday which was largely viewed as another missed opportunity to push back on recent dovish money flows across markets.
Looking into today’s session there are no notable economic reports but a slew of Fed speakers that could move markets. In chronological order, we will hear from: Williams (9:20 a.m. ET), Cook (9:30 a.m. ET), Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET), Kashkari (12:30 p.m. ET), and finally Waller (1:45 p.m. ET).
Additionally, the Treasury will hold a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and seeing as yesterday’s dismal 3-Yr auction sent the S&P 500 to session lows, the outcome could very well move markets today.
Finally, Q4 earnings season continues today with a few notable companies releasing results: UBER (-$0.21), CVS ($1.92), DIS ($0.80).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower following a disappointing night of tech earnings and more hot inflation data.
AAPL, AMZN, and GOOGL all reported earnings overnight and the results underwhelmed. Each stock is down between 2% and 5% pre-market.
Economically, EU PPI rose 1.1% vs. (E) -0.7% and became the third inflation number this week to hint at a rebound.
Focus today will be on the Employment Situation Report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds 185K, UE Rate 3.6%, Wages 0.3% m/m, 4.5% y/y). Financial media focus will be on the headline job adds number but thanks to Powell’s less hawkish speech it’ll take a big number (300k or more) to be “Too Hot.” Instead, focus on wages as they are directly related to services inflation, which remains sticky. If wages are strong, that’ll be a negative. The other notable economic report today is the ISM Services Index (E: 49.6) and markets will want to see stability in the data (no not worse than expectations).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower as markets digest Thursday’s rally following a mostly disappointing night of earnings.
Intel (INTC) posted very disappointing results and the stock dropped –9% overnight while other earnings reports were mostly mixed.
Economic data was sparse as Euro Zone Money supply was the only notable indicator and it rose 4.7% vs. (E) 4.8%.
Today focus will turn to inflation via the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3%, 4.4%) and five-year inflation expectations in U-Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 64.6). The lower those inflation numbers, the better, and if we get soft inflation data that likely will help extend this week’s rally as it’ll increase expectations for a Fed pause in the next month or two. We also get Pending Home Sales (E: -1.0%) but that shouldn’t move markets.
On the earnings front, important reports today include: CVX ($4.16), AXP ($2.18), and CL ($0.76).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are lower and bond yields are climbing on the back of strong economic data and hawkish ECB chatter.
Chinese economic data was strong overnight while the German ZEW Survey surprised to the upside and U.K. wage growth rose to a record 6.4% vs. (E) 6.1%.
Meanwhile, the ECB’s Chief Economist, Philip Lane, made hawkish comments about rates rising into restrictive territory overnight which is weighing on recently dovish-leaning investor sentiment.
Today, focus will be on earnings early with: GS ($5.25), MS ($1.25), CFG ($1.30) all reporting ahead of the bell while UAL ($2.07) will release results after the close.
Economically, there is one important report this morning: Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -7.5) and there is one Fed speaker to watch this afternoon: Williams (3:00 p.m. ET).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher following better-than-expected earnings overnight.
Both Nike (NKE up 12% after hours) and FedEx (FDX up 4% after hours) posted better-than-expected earnings overnight and those results are helping to ease rising anxiety about 2023 earnings.
The only notable economic report was German Gfk Consumer Climate and it was in line (–37.8 vs. (E) -37.5).
Today the calendar stays quiet (it picks up tomorrow) but the focus will be on Consumer Confidence (E: 101.0) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.2M) and the key for data will remain moderation (but not a collapse that implies looming stagflation).