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“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye

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“Where’s the Trump Put?”: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Up in Late Hours on Hints of Tariff Relief: Markets Wrap

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “At what level of stock market ‘pain’ would Trump and the administration reverse course? Obviously, we don’t know the exact number, but if we look back at Trade War 1.0, history implies the ‘Trump Put’ would be elected around a 10% decline in the S&P 500.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on March 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How Real Are Stagflation Risks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Real Are Stagflation Risks?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Are Tariffs Delayed Again?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Will the “Big Three” Monthly Economic Report Confirm Slowdown Fears?

Futures are modestly higher following solid Chinese economic data and as investors await more details of the looming tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Economically, the Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 vs. (E) 49.9, implying that stimulus is starting to flow through that economy.

On tariffs, the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada start tomorrow, although markets still expect they will be delayed.

Today focus will be first on trade/tariff headlines and any delay in the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will be an obvious positive and reinforce the market’s belief that tariffs are just a negotiating tool.

Economically, the first of the “Big Three” monthly economic reports comes today via the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 50.6) and the stronger that number, the better.

A Caveat to Recent Negative Sentiment Reports

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Caveat to Recent Negative Sentiment Reports

Futures are enjoying a moderate bounce on solid NVDA earnings and following an otherwise quiet night of news.

NVDA earnings and guidance beat estimates and the stock is slightly higher pre-market and holding yesterday’s gains (NVDA rallied 4% into the report yesterday). The results are helping to calm DeepSeek related AI fears.

Given investor’s sudden anxiety towards economic growth, the economic data over the next two days will be important.

Today, the key reports are, in order of importance: Durable Goods (E: 1.9%), Jobless Claims (E: 224K), Revised Q4 GDP (2.3%) and Pending Home Sales (E: -1.2%).  Mostly in-line numbers, especially from Durable Goods, will help push back against the “growth scare” narrative while weak readings will only increase it (and likely pressure stocks).

We also have numerous Fed speakers today including: Barkin (7:30 a.m. ET), Schmid (9:15 a.m. ET), Barr (10:00 a.m. ET), Bowman (11:45 a.m. ET), Hammack (1:15 p.m. ET) and Harker (3:15 p.m. ET).  None of them are Fed leadership so their comments shouldn’t move markets materially, but if they talk about possibly having to hike rates due to high inflation, that will be a negative.

Why Stocks Dropped Last Week (New Reason)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped Last Week (New Reason)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  A Big Week for Tech & Inflation (NVDA Earnings Wed, Core PCE Price Index Friday)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Does Data This Week Increase Growth Concerns?

Futures are enjoying a solid bounce following a mostly quiet weekend of news and ahead of a catalyst filled week.

Economically, data from Europe was solid as German Ifo Business Expectations were slightly better than expected (85.4 vs. (E) 85.0) while Euro Zone Core HICP (their CPI) met expectations (2.7% y/y).

Politically, German elections went largely as expected with center-right parties CDU/CSU winning while the far-right AfD party slightly underperformed vs. expectations.

Today there are no notable economic reports so barring any surprise policy headlines on tariffs or trade, it should be a relatively quiet start to the week (although it will get busier as the week progresses).

Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market

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Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market: Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch

Oil recoups some of its recent losses as U.S. imposes fresh sanctions on Iran

Fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran announced Monday “invited a modest bid to the market” and the news helped U.S. benchmark prices defend the psychological $70 level, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch on Monday.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on February 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

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Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

Futures are little changed following slightly disappointing economic data overnight.

EU and UK flash PMIs underwhelmed as the EU Services PMI declined to 50.7 vs. (51.5) while the UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4 vs. (E) 48.5, underscoring the economic headwinds facing the EU and UK.

Today focus will stay on economic data and the two key reports are the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.3) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0).  Markets will want to see in-line to slightly weak readings but most importantly, no big jumps in the price indices like we saw in Empire and Philly earlier this week.

Other notable events today include Existing Home Sales (E: 4.16 million) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 68.0) as well as two Fed speakers:  Jefferson (11:30 a.m. ET) and Daly (11:30 a.m. ET).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest fresh tariff threats from President Trump and more “hot” inflation data out of Europe, both of which are driving global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s House Price Index fell -5.0% in January rekindling concerns about the nation’s housing sector while UK CPI was 3.0% vs. (E) 2.8%, up from 2.5% in December, stoking inflation fears and adding upward pressure to bond yields.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.397M) before the January FOMC Meeting Minutes will come into focus in the afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET).

There is also one Fed speaker but not until after the close: Jefferson (5:00 p.m. ET) while we will get a few noteworthy (but not likely market-moving) earnings releases from ETSY ($0.95), CVNA ($0.32), and TOST ($0.06).

Lowering Energy Prices To “Combat Sticky High Inflation”

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Lowering energy prices to combat sticky high inflation: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices end lower as U.S. crude supplies climb for a third week in a row

A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, or end of the war, could be bearish for oil if Trump, who is adamant about lowering energy prices to “combat sticky high inflation” pushes for an immediate removal of all sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Also, geopolitical stability may “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.”

The market’s reaction to the CPI data underscored that “higher-for-longer Fed policy is becoming increasingly likely in 2025,” Richey said. “That ultimately raises the risk that restrictive rates choke off growth and tip the economy over a fragile edge into a recession, a historically demand-crippling phase of the economic cycle for oil and refined products.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation

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Tom Essaye Interview With Financial Sense

This Week: Sticky Inflation and More Tariffs – Tom Essaye on Market Response

Financial expert Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation, the potential impact of new tariffs, and why the Fed may be forced to reconsider rate cuts. With the S&P 500 at record highs, Essaye warns of market vulnerability and highlights where investors should be looking now. Don’t miss this deep dive into inflation, interest rates, and market strategy!

Also, click here to view the full interview with Financial Sense published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest fresh tariff threats from President Trump and more “hot” inflation data out of Europe, both of which are driving global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s House Price Index fell -5.0% in January rekindling concerns about the nation’s housing sector while UK CPI was 3.0% vs. (E) 2.8%, up from 2.5% in December, stoking inflation fears and adding upward pressure to bond yields.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.397M) before the January FOMC Meeting Minutes will come into focus in the afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET).

There is also one Fed speaker but not until after the close: Jefferson (5:00 p.m. ET) while we will get a few noteworthy (but not likely market-moving) earnings releases from ETSY ($0.95), CVNA ($0.32), and TOST ($0.06).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.