The natural-gas market is reaching a historically pivotal phase of the year, with the price swings typically occurring in the summer and winter months, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher mostly on momentum from Wednesday’s rally and despite more disappointing earnings, this time from Cisco (CSCO).
CSCO orders underwhelmed and that’s weighing on the stock (down 4% after hours) and limiting gains in futures.
There was no new news on the debt ceiling but optimism remains high and a deal is expected before the “X” date.
Focus today will be on economic data, because beyond any short-term debt ceiling drama (or resolution) the bigger issue for this market remains hard vs. soft landing. Key reports today include (in order of importance): Jobless Claims (E: 255K), Philly Fed (E: -20.0) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.295M). As has been the case, stability remains the key for stocks to extend the rally.
We also have two Fed speakers, Jefferson (9:05 a.m. ET) and Logan (10:00 a.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as traders digest disappointing economic data from overseas and look ahead to today’s debt ceiling negotiations.
Economically, Chinese Fixed Asset Investment slowed in April while Industrial Production came in at just 5.6% vs. (E) 10.7% and Retail Sales rose to 18.4% vs. (E) 22.0%. The underwhelming data is continuing to pour some cold water on hopes that a robust recovery in China will help support broader growth in the global economy this year.
Looking into today’s session there are several economic releases to watch in the U.S. including (in order of importance): Retail Sales (E: 0.7%), Industrial Production (E: 0.0%), and the Housing Market Index (E: 45). Specifically, if Retail Sales is disappointing, that could rekindle hard-landing fears and pressure stocks.
Several Fed officials are also expected to speak today: Mester (8:15 a.m. ET), Bostic (8:55 a.m. ET), Williams (12:15 p.m. ET), and Logan (3:15 p.m. ET). A more cautious tone regarding policy plans would be welcomed while any decidedly hawkish commentary is likely to pressure markets.
Finally, the main focus today will be the debt ceiling talks between the Biden Administration and House Republicans as we are fast approaching the “X date” and prospects of a deal being reached remain very uncertain. Any reported progress on the topic will be well-received today and likely result in a modest relief rally but if concerns about the debt ceiling increase, expect equities to come under pressure.
Sevens Report Technicals – Discounted Subscription Offer for Sevens Report Subscribers Ends Today!
Response to our announcement of Sevens Report Technicals has been tremendous, and we have been thrilled with the feedback we have received on the first few issues.
Sevens Report Technicals is similar in look and feel to the special technical report we delivered to subscribers in late April which can be viewed here.
This week’s edition was packed with value-add analysis including a bullish shift in the outlook for the Dollar Index (not good for stocks) and a deep dive into some key measures of market breadth, which remain historically weak right now.
During this launch phase we have offered an additional month free on any quarterly ($75 value) or annual ($150 value) subscription.
With a one-month “grace period” during which you can receive a full refund for any reason, you take no risk trying Sevens Report Technicals to see if it’s a complement to your business or investment process.
To start your risk-free trial subscription, please send an email to info@sevensreport.com.
To learn more about Sevens Report Technicals, click this link.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher following reports of progress on the debt ceiling negotiations over the weekend.
Another debt ceiling meeting is scheduled for Tuesday at the White House and major officials (including Biden and Yellen) stated progress was made in negotiations over the weekend, although a deal still isn’t likely this week.
Economically, Euro Zone IP slightly missed estimates.
Today there’s only one notable economic report, the May Empire Manufacturing Index (E: -3.70), and markets will want to see stability in the data to further hint towards a soft landing.
Looking at the Fed, there are numerous speakers today including Bostic (8:45 a.m. ET), Kashkari (9:15 a.m. ET), Barkin (12:30 p.m. ET) and Cook (5:00 p.m. ET) and while their comments may have a hawkish tone, the market firmly believes the Fed has paused on rate hikes and it’ll take Powell disavowing that notion for investors to reconsider.
Finally, debt ceiling headlines will likely continue, and don’t be shocked if there’s some pushback on the “progress” narrative from the weekend as the political gamesmanship kicks into high gear, with just over two weeks till the “X” date.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher following some potentially small progress on debt ceiling negotiations.
The debt ceiling meeting today was postponed to early next week as staffers needed more time to work on potential areas of compromise, and that’s being taken as a mild sign of progress.
Economically, UK manufacturing was stronger than expected (0.7% vs. (E) -0.1%) but that’s not moving markets.
Today focus will be on the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Survey, and specifically the five-year inflation expectations. The farther they fall from 3.0%, the better for markets as it reinforces inflation is not yet a longer-term problem. There are also three Fed speakers today: Daly (2:20 p.m. ET), Bullard & Jefferson (7:45 p.m. ET), but even if they’re hawkish they shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum from Wednesday’s rally and following a quiet night of news.
China’s CPI rose 0.1% vs. (E) 0.3% and that’s combining with recently underwhelming Chinese economic data to raise doubts about the economic recovery.
There was no notable news on the debt ceiling, although another round of high level meetings will occur tomorrow.
Today focus will first be on the Bank of England Rate Decision (E: 25 bps hike) and then on economic data, specifically Jobless Claims (E: 245K) and PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y). Stocks have benefitted from mostly “goldilocks” data over the past week, and if we get more of the same via in-line claims and PPI, stocks should be able to extend the rally. Finally, there’s one Fed speaker, Waller (10:15 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.
Equities could finally break out of that range and move higher if, data points more convincingly towards a soft landing, there are no more regional bank failures, core inflation drops faster than expected, the Fed confirms the pause and a debt ceiling deal is reached, said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are down modestly this morning, tracking global shares lower after soft earnings while focus turns to today’s CPI data.
ABNB shares are down 14% in premarket trade after the company offered disappointing revenue guidance after the close yesterday and that is weighing modestly on equities this morning.
Economically, German CPI was unchanged at 7.2% y/y in April, meeting analysts’ estimates, but importantly, the headline remains very elevated and much beyond policy makers’ 2.0% target which will support further tightening in the months ahead.
Looking into today’s session, U.S. inflation data will be in focus with CPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 5.0% y/y) due at 8:30 a.m. ET, but the more important figure to watch is Core CPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 5.5% y/y) as a print above 5.5% will raise concerns that price pressures are sticky and not declining which will warrant a continued, aggressive stance by the Fed.
There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move markets, especially in the wake of the CPI data as investors look for insight as to how the “smart market” is digesting the latest look at inflation.
Finally, earnings season is winding down but there are a few notably companies reporting today: TM ($2.83) before the open, and DIS ($0.89) after the close.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are lower this morning after soft economic data overseas and growing angst about the debt ceiling.
Chinese merchandise trade data for April revealed a -7.9% drop in imports vs. (E) -0.2% which has poured some cold water on hopes for a strong recovery in the world’s second largest economy.
In the U.S., the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 89.0 vs. (E) 89.7 for the month of April but the release is not materially moving markets this morning. There are no additional economic reports today.
There are two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Jefferson (8:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (12:05 p.m. ET) as well as a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, all of which have the potential to impact markets in intraday trade.
With increasing focus on the debt ceiling, investors will be keenly focused on today’s meeting between President Biden and Congressional leadership as hopes for a delay to September are building and any disappointment of those hopes could result in volatility across asset classes.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news as markets look ahead to Wednesday’s CPI.
News was slightly positive on the debt ceiling over the weekend, as reports indicate the White House will try to negotiate a short term debt ceiling extension (to the end of September). However, it remains uncertain if even this short-term deal can get done before the “X” date.
Economically, German Industrial Production missed estimates (-3.4% vs. (E) -1.5%) but that’s not moving markets.
Today there are no notable economic reports but there is a potentially important release at 2:00 p.m. via the Bank Senior Loan Office Survey. Markets (and the Fed) are nervous the regional bank stress will curtail lending and put a bigger headwind on the economy. If the loan officer survey reflects that reality (a drop in bank lending) it could cause volatility as that would increase the chances of a potential hard landing.
Sevens Report Technicals – First Issue Being Delivered To Trial Period Subscribers This Morning!
We have been thrilled with the response to our new research offering: Sevens Report Technicals and we are very excited to deliver the first official issue later this morning. Sevens Report Technicals will be similar in appearance to the special technical report we sent out two weeks ago, which you can view here.
This new report will offer a “deep dive” into the technical dynamics of all of the asset classes we cover in the daily Sevens Report including:
During this launch phase we continue to offer an additional month free on any quarterly ($75 discount) or annual ($150 discount) subscription. With a one month “Grace Period” during which you can receive a full refund for any reason, you take no risk trying Sevens Report Technicals. We are confident that you will find the research a perfect complement to your business or investment process.
To start your risk-free trial subscription, please send an email to info@sevensreport.com. To learn more about Sevens Report Technicals, click this link.