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Three Keys to a Bottom (Updated)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Keys to a Bottom (Updated)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Focus Turns to Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Flash PMI on Friday is the Big Report to Watch

Futures are moderately higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rally and following a generally quiet weekend.

Investors continue to hope for a near-term peak in inflation and Friday’s drop in University of Michigan inflation expectations (2.8% vs. (E) 3.0%) and multi-month lows in the Empire Manufacturing price indices fueled that hope and resulted in the rally on Friday and in futures this morning.

Today’s focus will shift to earnings, and they will dominate market action early this week as there are no Fed speakers and no market-moving economic reports till later this week.  If earnings are better than feared, they can help extend this rally in the near term while disappointing results will cause more volatility.  Some reports we’re watching today include BAC ($ 0.77), GS ($6.99), SCHW ($0.91), IBM ($ 2.29).

Why Is the Market Suddenly Resilient?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Is the Market Suddenly Resilient?

Futures are slightly higher on momentum from yesterday’s recovery and despite mixed Chinese economic data.

Chinese Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment both slightly missed estimates while Retail Sales beat expectations, but importantly the data didn’t show the Chinese economy had lost significant momentum.

Today there are numerous economic reports and some of them potentially will move markets.  The most important report today is 5-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.1% previous) and if they drop to 3.0% or lower that will be a good sign on inflation.  Retail Sales (E: 0.9%) and Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -1.3) are the next most important reports today and again markets will want to see moderation – a slowing of activity but not a collapse.  Finally, we also get Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 50.0).

We also have one Fed speaker today, Bostic (8:45 a.m. ET), and we’d expect him to follow yesterday’s script and push back on the inevitability of a 100 basis point hike (although acknowledge that anything’s possible depending on the data).

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

Stock futures are trading with cautious gains this morning as inflation data overseas met expectations as traders look ahead to today’s all-important CPI report in the U.S.

Economically, German and French CPI headlines both met estimates in June, holding steady from May levels which is offering hope that global inflation pressures have peaked while several growth metrics in the EU topped estimates.

Today, the focus will almost entirely be on the June CPI report with the headline expected to rise 1.1% m/m and 8.8% y/y from 8.6% in May while core CPI is expected to moderate with a rise of 0.5% m/m and 5.8% y/y from 6.0% previously.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but the Treasury will hold a 30-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move markets in the afternoon.

Bottom line, markets are at a tipping point here and today’s CPI report could cause a breakout if the data suggests we are beyond peak inflation and peak Fed hawkishness, while conversely, we could see sharp declines if the data comes in hot again

CPI Preview (Good, Bad & Ugly)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • CPI Preview (Good, Bad & Ugly)

Futures are modestly lower following more disappointing economic data from Europe and as the dollar again surged to fresh multi-decade highs.

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index collapsed, falling to –53.8 vs. (E) -38.0, adding to quickly rising recession worries in the EU.

The bad ZEW reading further weighed on the euro and boosted the dollar, which rose to another 20+ year high.

Today there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Barkin at 12:30 p.m. ET.  So, like Monday, we’d expect positioning ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report and any potential COVID headlines from China to move markets (and if there’s a path of least resistance today, it’s lower into the CPI print).

State of Inflation: Hints of a Peak?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • State of Inflation:  Hints of a Peak?

Futures are sharply lower following another profit warning from a national retailer and mixed economic data.

Restoration Hardware (RH) cut guidance just a few weeks after reporting earnings, citing a sudden deterioration in demand and increasing worries about corporate earnings.

Economic data was mixed as the Chinese manufacturing PMI rose back above 50, while German unemployment rose more than expected (5.3% vs. (E) 5.0%.

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.4% m/m, 4.8% y/y) and if we get a materially hot number above the 4.8% yoy expectation, we can expect more selling pressure while a drop towards the mid 4% range would be a welcomed surprise (and likely cut the early morning losses).  Today we also get weekly Jobless Claims (E: 226K), although that number shouldn’t move markets.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch on June 27th, 2022

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Oil prices end higher for a second session as better-than-expected U.S. economic data ease demand worries

Economic data last week was pretty dismal and weighed on energy products and commodities broadly, but Monday’s numbers came in better than expected — providing support for oil…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Courthouse News Service on June 3, 2022

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Markets dip slightly on conflicting jobs report data

Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report noted that “very strong data would incur more Fed hawkishness while really soft data would spike stagflation concerns — and ‘moderating’ was just what we got from the ADP jobs report.” Click here to read the full article.

Value vs. Growth Technical Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Value vs. Growth Technical Outlook

Futures are moderately higher following a surprise rate cut by Chinese authorities.

Officials in China announced a larger than expected rate cut to the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (15 bps vs. (E) 5 bps) in a move that potentially signals greater ongoing support for the economy (if China can reopen and authorities substantially support the economy that would remove a big headwind on stocks).

Economic data was mixed overnight as German PPI remained hot (2.8% vs. (E) 1.2% m/m) while UK Retail Sales modestly beat estimates (rising 1.4% vs. (E) 0.2%) but neither number is altering the rate hike outlooks for the ECB or BOE (both are expected to continue to hike rates over the summer).

Today there are no notable economic reports and no Fed speakers scheduled so look for momentum and shorter-term technicals to drive trading.

Earnings Season Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings Season Preview
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news and ahead of the long weekend.

There were no notable economic reports overnight. Geopolitically, the Russia/Ukraine war raged on as fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine (as has been expected).

Earnings overnight were net positive as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) provided solid guidance and that’s helping to relieve some ongoing semiconductor supply anxiety.

Today will be a busy day, with the first potentially big event being the ECB Decision at 7:45 a.m. ET.  No change is expected to rates or QE, but if Lagarde is hawkish in her commentary it could hit stocks.

Economically, we’ll have multiple reports today including, in order of importance, Retails Sales (E: 0.6%), Consumer Sentiment (E: 58.8), and Jobless Claims (E: 175K).  As has been the case, markets will want to see continued stability in the data.

Finally, we have two Fed speakers, Mester (2:30 p.m. ET) and Harker (6:00 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

What’s Driving Stocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Driving Stocks
  • Natural Gas Update (New Highs Ahead?)

Futures are slightly higher following a generally quiet night of news as oil declined modestly and there was no further escalation in the Russia/Ukraine war.

Economic data disappointed overnight as UK Retail Sales missed estimates (-.3% vs. (E) 0.7%), while German IFO Business Expectations plunged to 85.1 vs. (E) 92.4, reflecting uncertainty related to the Russia/Ukraine war.

Today’s focus will be on the Consumer Sentiment Report (E: 59.7) and specifically the Inflation Expectations index, and if five-year inflation expectations move meaningfully above 3%, that will put a headwind on stocks.   Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%) is the other notable report today, but it shouldn’t move markets.

From the Fed we have multiple speakers, including Williams (10:00 a.m. ET), Daly (11:00 a.m. ET), Barkin (11:30 a.m. ET) and Waller (12:00 p.m. ET) but as long as they stick to the current “script” of being open to a 50 bps hike at the May meeting (but not calling for even more) then they shouldn’t move markets.