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Yields fell and stocks rose following a soft S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI

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Yields fell and stocks rose following a soft S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Wrap Up the Day in the Green

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that yields fell and stocks rose following a soft S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI.

“It’s kind of a reverse of what we’ve seen in the last two and a half weeks,” Essaye said. “And I think this is something we can expect for the short term. As the market is nervous about higher yields, it’s going to welcome soft data, in so much as it thinks it’ll make the Fed less hawkish.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Schwab Network

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American Express (AXP) rises after beating earnings: Tom Essaye Interviewed on Schwab Network

AXP Rises After Earnings: Best Positioned Credit Card Stocks

American Express (AXP) rises after beating earnings. The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye and Morningstar’s Michael Miller discuss this as American Express’ 1Q revenue grew 11% year-over-year. They talk about the road ahead for American Express. They then go over the best positioned credit card stocks. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Also, click here to view the full interview published on April 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How Nervous Are Investors Right Now?

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How Nervous Are Investors Right Now? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update – How Nervous Are Investors Right Now?
  • A Timely Chart: NVDA Falls to Target From Last Thursday’s Report

U.S. equity futures are tracking global markets higher after European economic data came in better than expected and traders optimistically look ahead to big-tech earnings.

The EU’s April PMI Composite Flash rose 1.1 points to 51.4 vs. (E) 50.8 thanks to a solid 52.9 Services sub-index print. The strong data is helping ease worries of stagflation and a weakening consumer which have been simmering so far in 2024.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the PMI Composite Flash (E:51.9) release and New Home Sales (E: 670K) report due out this morning.

There are no Fed speakers today but the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could offer insight into any changes in Fed policy expectations (the risk to stocks is an auction with weak demand that sends the 2-Yr yield to-or-through 5%).

Earnings season also continues to pick up today with UPS ($1.33), GM ($2.06), LMT ($5.80), GE ($0.67), PEP ($1.52), and SHW ($2.25) reporting before the bell while TSLA ($0.49) and V ($2.43) will release results after the close.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

As you see people reducing tech exposure, you’re getting the whole gamut being sold

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As you see people reducing tech exposure, you’re getting the whole gamut being sold: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Why the Dow and Nasdaq Are Going in Different Directions

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that earnings this week in the tech space haven’t been good. Netflix was the latest nail in the coffin ahead of major big tech players next week.

“As you see people reducing tech exposure, you’re getting the whole gamut being sold,” Essaye says. “And we know that’s really what’s happening, because the Dow is up on the day. And the S&P 500, if you were to pull tech out, wouldn’t be doing that bad.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Makes The Pullback Worse?

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What Makes The Pullback Worse? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Makes The Pullback Worse?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Earnings and Growth Data Stabilize Stocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Growth focus early in the week, important inflation report on Friday.

Futures are enjoying a modest rebound following a quiet weekend of news and ahead of an important week of earnings (especially in tech).

There are major tech earnings this week (TSLA, META, GOOG, MSFT) and tech stocks are bouncing this morning ahead of those reports.

There was no notable economic or geo-political news over the weekend.

This is a potentially busy week of economic data and earnings but it starts slowly, as today there’s only one economic report,  Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: 0.05), and that’s unlikely to move markets.

On earnings, the importance of the results increases this week.  Results we’re watching today include:  VZ ($1.12), TFC ($0.78), NUE ($3.62).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Table Chart: Bullish Momentum vs. Fair Value

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Market Multiple Table Chart: Bullish Momentum vs. Fair Value: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart:  Bullish Momentum vs. Fair Value
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly higher as stocks rebound from Wednesday’s late day dip ahead of key economic data.

Economically, the only notable number was Swedish CPI which rose 2.5% vs. (E) 2.8% and that’s reinforcing summer rate cut expectations.

AI enthusiasm got a small boost overnight as Apple supplier Foxconn posted optimistic guidance on strong AI server demand.

Today focus will be on economic data, especially Jobless Claims (E: 218k) and Retail Sales (E: 0.8% m/m).  Continuing claims (contained in the jobless claims report) and retail sales disappointed recently and if we see that again, it’ll add to growth concerns and could hit stocks.

On inflation, we also get PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 1.1% y/y) and given CPI ran a touch hot, it wouldn’t be a surprise if PPI did the same.  But, it’ll likely take a much hotter than expected number to hit markets (because they’ve already priced in the slightly hot CPI report).

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Number Would Make Core PCE Negative for Stocks?

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What Number Would Make Core PCE Negative for Stocks? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Number Would Make Core PCE Negative for Stocks?
  • EIA and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are modestly lower as EU inflation data disappointed overnight while tech earnings underwhelmed.

Economically, French and Spanish CPIs showed on going disinflation but it was slower than expected (mirroring what we’ve seen recently in the U.S.).

On earnings, CRM and SNOW posted underwhelming earnings and that’s modestly weighting on tech shares.

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.4% m/m, 2.8% y/y) as that’s the most important report of the week.  Risk/reward into this number is skewed slightly positive as inflation concerns are already elevated and partially priced in, so it should take a solidly hot number to weigh on markets, while just an “in-line” reading would be welcomed.

Other data notable data today includes Jobless Claims (E: 210K) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.8%) and we have three Fed speakers, Bostic (10:50 a.m.), Goolsbee (11:00 a.m.) and Mester (1:15 p.m. ET) although barring a major surprise from those reports/speakers, they shouldn’t move markets.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard: More Signs of Slowing Growth

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Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard: More Signs of Slowing Growth: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard: Still a Soft Landing But More Signs of Slowing Growth
  • Chart: Consumer Confidence Data Points to Slowing Growth

Futures are lower as traders continue to reposition following last week’s sprint to record highs while focus shifts ahead to tomorrow’s critical inflation data.

Economically, the headline of the Eurozone Economic Sentiment report fell to 95.4 vs. (E) 96.7 which didn’t help risk assets in pre-market trade.

Today, traders will be watching the release of Q4 GDP (E: 3.3%) and International Trade in Goods (E: -$88.1B) ahead of the bell. Any data that is not Goldilocks (or “Platinumlocks”) will likely keep stocks under pressure ahead of tomorrow’s PCE Price Index report.

Later in the day, there are several Fed speakers: Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Collins (12:15 p.m. ET), and Williams (12:45 p.m. ET). Bostic and Williams are on the FOMC, so their comments have the potential to move markets with tomorrow’s inflation data coming into view.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted In Barron’s on February 21, 2024

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Hedging Up Ahead Of The Results: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Lower Ahead of Fed Minutes, Nvidia Earnings

“There are no notable economic reports today, but the January Fed meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and that could move Treasury yields and ultimately impact stocks,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Nvidia, which was the poster child for 2023’s artificial intelligence stock rally, was on track to dip again ahead of the chip maker’s earnings report that’s due after the market closes.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on February 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to Rally

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Nvidia Has Been The ‘Poster Child’ Of AI Enthusiasm

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Nvidia Has Been The ‘Poster Child’ Of AI Enthusiasm: Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg Featured on Yahoo Finance

Tech Up in Late Hours on Nvidia’s Bullish Outlook: Markets Wrap

“Nvidia has been the ‘poster child’ of AI enthusiasm because NVDA makes the type of semiconductor chips that power generative AI and demand for those chips has gone through the roof,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “The AI-driven rally in the ‘Mag Seven’ is largely justified by the fact that they’re making a lot more money than they were previously.”

While Nvidia is the proverbial “picks and shovels” of the “AI gold rush”, other big-tech companies such as Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. have also seen large stock rallies as investors expect these companies to harness the power of generative AI to boost profits, Essaye noted.

“Has the AI mania gone too far and are we looking at a bubble situation?” Essaye said. “Based on what most of us think about typical bubbles, the answer is ‘no’ they are not in a bubble.”

Also, click here to view the full Bloomberg article featured on Yahoo Finance published on February 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.