Markets should be poised for a higher open, as they want to see claims begin to rise over the coming weeks, otherwise it’ll imply the labor market remains much, much too tight, Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said. Click here to read the full article.
Overall, “an improving outlook for the health of the U.S. economy in the wake of the January jobs report, and ongoing optimism about the positive demand impact of China’s rapid reopening process are offering support to global oil markets right now,” said the Sevens Report’s Richey. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research and Andrew McCreath, founder at Forge First Asset Management, join BNN Bloomberg to discuss the latest large-cap earnings reports. Essaye says that Uber’s strength this season is a signal that life is getting back to normal and discusses how diversification will be imperative for companies to succeed amid the growth slowdown. Click here to watch the full interview.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are enjoying a moderate bounce overnight thanks to slightly better than expected inflation data and earnings.
German CPI rose less than expected (8.7% vs. (E) 9.1%) and that’s helping to slightly calm fears of a bounce back in inflation.
Earnings overnight were also solid as DIS beat estimates and it’s fair to say this earnings season has been not as bad as feared.
Focus will remain on economic data and the only notable report today is Jobless Claims (E: 190K). Holiday effects should be working their way out of these numbers so investors will want to see claims begin to rise over the coming weeks, otherwise it’ll imply the labor market remains much, much too tight (and that means more potential future rate hikes).
Earnings season is winding down but some notable reports today include: PM ($1.29), PYPL ($1.20), LYFT ($0.13).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower this morning as investors continue to digest Powell’s commentary from yesterday which was largely viewed as another missed opportunity to push back on recent dovish money flows across markets.
Looking into today’s session there are no notable economic reports but a slew of Fed speakers that could move markets. In chronological order, we will hear from: Williams (9:20 a.m. ET), Cook (9:30 a.m. ET), Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET), Kashkari (12:30 p.m. ET), and finally Waller (1:45 p.m. ET).
Additionally, the Treasury will hold a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and seeing as yesterday’s dismal 3-Yr auction sent the S&P 500 to session lows, the outcome could very well move markets today.
Finally, Q4 earnings season continues today with a few notable companies releasing results: UBER (-$0.21), CVS ($1.92), DIS ($0.80).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower following a disappointing night of tech earnings and more hot inflation data.
AAPL, AMZN, and GOOGL all reported earnings overnight and the results underwhelmed. Each stock is down between 2% and 5% pre-market.
Economically, EU PPI rose 1.1% vs. (E) -0.7% and became the third inflation number this week to hint at a rebound.
Focus today will be on the Employment Situation Report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds 185K, UE Rate 3.6%, Wages 0.3% m/m, 4.5% y/y). Financial media focus will be on the headline job adds number but thanks to Powell’s less hawkish speech it’ll take a big number (300k or more) to be “Too Hot.” Instead, focus on wages as they are directly related to services inflation, which remains sticky. If wages are strong, that’ll be a negative. The other notable economic report today is the ISM Services Index (E: 49.6) and markets will want to see stability in the data (no not worse than expectations).
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are tracking European markets lower this morning amid a hawkish reaction to strong economic data and disappointing earnings from UBS and Samsung.
Economic data in Europe showed a reversal back higher in French inflation and better than-feared growth in the EU which is resulting in more hawkish money flows ahead of the several key central bank decisions this week and that is ultimately weighing on risk assets this morning.
Looking into today’s session, there are a few economic reports to watch in the U.S. (in order of importance): Q4 Employment Cost Index (E: 1.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 109.0), Chicago PMI (E: 45.1), and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: -0.5%).
With the FOMC Meeting getting underway, the macro focus will be on rate markets and expectations for the terminal rate as tomorrow’s 25 basis point hike is priced in with nearly 100% confidence. If market-based terminal rate expectations rise today, expect further pressure on risk assets and lower equity prices broadly.
Meanwhile, earnings season continues in full force today with notable releases coming from: UPS ($3.58), GM ($1.65), XOM ($3.32), MCD ($2.45), CAT ($3.95), and AMD ($0.67).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower following a hotter-than-expected Spanish CPI report and as markets look ahead to a week filled with potential market-moving events.
Spanish CPI rose 5.8% vs. (E) 4.8% y/y and that is challenging the idea that disinflation is accelerating, and stocks are dropping as a result.
Investors are also booking profits ahead of a key week of catalysts including Fed/ECB/BOE rate meetings, critical earnings reports (this is the most important week of earnings), and the monthly jobs report on Friday.
This week is very, very busy from an economic standpoint between the Fed on Wednesday, jobs report on Friday, ISM PMIs and key inflation readings. But, all the important reports start tomorrow so today’s focus will be on the earnings, and some notable reports today include NXPI ($3.60) and WHR ($3.43) which will give us insight into semi-conductor production (any more shortages?) and consumer demand.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower as markets digest Thursday’s rally following a mostly disappointing night of earnings.
Intel (INTC) posted very disappointing results and the stock dropped –9% overnight while other earnings reports were mostly mixed.
Economic data was sparse as Euro Zone Money supply was the only notable indicator and it rose 4.7% vs. (E) 4.8%.
Today focus will turn to inflation via the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3%, 4.4%) and five-year inflation expectations in U-Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 64.6). The lower those inflation numbers, the better, and if we get soft inflation data that likely will help extend this week’s rally as it’ll increase expectations for a Fed pause in the next month or two. We also get Pending Home Sales (E: -1.0%) but that shouldn’t move markets.
On the earnings front, important reports today include: CVX ($4.16), AXP ($2.18), and CL ($0.76).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher thanks mostly to momentum from Wednesday’s rebound and as earnings overnight were no worse than feared.
On earnings, TSLA rallied 6% after hours as Elon Musk teased more deliveries on the call in ‘23 than actual guidance, while IBM results were slightly disappointing.
Today focus will be on economic data and the key reports today are: Durable Goods (E: 2.8%), Jobless Claims (E: 202K), Q4 ’22 GDP (E: 2.7%), and New Home Sales (E: 614K). As has been the case through the end of ’22 and early ’23, moderation in the data, not an outright collapse, is what stocks and bonds need to extend yesterday’s rally.
On earnings, the key report today comes after the close with INTC ($0.20), while other notable reports include: V $($2.01), MA ($2.56), AAL ($1.14), JBLU ($0.19), and VLO ($7.45).
