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What is Causing This Pullback?

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What is Causing This Pullback?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What is Causing This Pullback?
  • Yield Curve Update:  10’s-2’s Just Hit a Two-Year High
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly lower as more mixed earnings are preventing a bounce in stocks.

Tech earnings were “ok” overnight (IBM and NOW posted good results) but other sectors’ results were weak, especially in the auto sector (Ford (F) is down 13% pre-market) and that’s weighing on futures.

Focus will remain on economic data and earnings today and the calendar is busy on both fronts.  Economically, the key reports today, in order of importance, are:  Jobless Claims (E: 235K), Final Q2 GDP (E: 2.1%), and Durable Goods (E: 0.3%).  Goldilocks economic data (so in-line with expectations across the board with no hints of inflation) would be a positive for stocks and help to slow this pullback.   But, if data is very soft or very strong, expect more downward pressure.

On the earnings front, results this season are, so far, very mixed and disappointing earnings are weighing on stocks.  Important results today include: AAL (E: $1.04), ABBV (E: $2.56), VLO (E: $2.61), LHX (E: $3.18) and BKR (E: $0.49).

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Dow Theory: Transports Sputter, Industrials Power On

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Dow Theory: Transports Sputter, Industrials Power On: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Dow Theory: Transports Sputter, Industrials Power On
  • Visual – Existing Home Sales Fall, Home Prices & Inventories Rise

Futures are lower thanks to soft earnings from Mag-7 members TSLA (down 7% premarket) and GOOGL (down 3% premarket) as well as soft economic data in Europe.

The Eurozone’s July Composite Flash PMI fell to 50.1 vs. (E) 51.0 with both the manufacturing and services components missing estimates (German data was notably weak).

Looking into today’s session, the U.S. Flash Composite PMI (E: 51.6) will be the market’s primary focus early in the day but New Home Sales (E: 644K) data is also due to be released shortly after the bell.

From there focus will likely revert to how the Mag-7 trades in the wake of yesterday’s weak tech earnings and follow through selling (like we are seeing in the pre-market) will be a drag on the major indexes.

There is also a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact markets (yesterday’s strong 2-Yr auction pushed yields lower).

Finally, there are a few notable earnings reports due after the close including: F (E: $0.64), CMG (E: $0.31), and IBM (E: $2.16) and the Fed’s Bowman is scheduled to speak at 4:05 p.m. ET.

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The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically)

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The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically)
  • How the Post CPI “Rest of the Market” Rally Is Accelerating

Futures are moderately lower thanks to significant weakness in tech stocks.

Semi-conductor chip stocks are lower this morning on a trifecta of negative news including soft ASML guidance, reports of tighter chip restrictions with China and bellicose rhetoric from Trump on Taiwan in a recent interview.

Focus will remain on economic data today and the most important report is Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) while we also get Housing Starts (1.305M).  As Tuesday showed, markets still want Goldilocks economic reports, meaning they aren’t too strong but don’t point to economic weakness, either.  We also have two Fed speakers, Barkin (9:00 a.m. ET) and Waller (9:35 a.m. ET), but unless one of them floats the possibility of a third rate cut in 2024, they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to roll on and some notable reports today include: ASML ($3.87), JNJ ($2.82), and UAL ($3.97).

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The performance gap between tech and the rest of the market

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The performance gap between tech and the rest of the market: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Why A Magnificent 7 Breather Could Be A Good Thing For The Stock Market

“The performance gap between tech and the rest of the market is so wide that it’s reasonable to expect continued closing of that gap as markets more fully embrace the idea of the start of a rate cutting cycle,” summarized Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, noting in the “near term” non-tech sectors may mount a catchup rally. Essaye is referring to Thursday’s strong inflation data which bolstered calls for the Federal Reserve to soon lower interest rates, which broadly help most equities but tend to favor certain rate-sensitive sectors like real estate.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on July 12th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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July MMT Chart and Powell Testimony Takeaways

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July MMT Chart and Powell Testimony Takeaways: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Powell Testimony Takeaways – Underappreciated Growth Risks
  • July MMT Chart – All Scenario Targets Hit New Highs

Futures are higher again this morning amid firming Fed rate cut bets after Powell’s first day of semiannual testimony on Capitol Hill while inflation data was mixed overnight.

Economically, inflation data in Asia was mixed as Chinese CPI fell to 0.2% vs. (E) 0.4% y/y but Japanese PPI rose from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May to 2.9% in June.

There are no notable economic reports in the U.S. today which will leave markets primarily focused on Fed Chair Powell’s second day of Congressional testimony, this time before the House Financial Services Committee.

There are two additional Fed speakers this afternoon, Goolsbee and Bowman at 2:30 p.m. ET while Cook speaks later this evening, well after the close (7:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Yesterday’s 3-Yr Note auction saw solid demand, however there is some uncertainty about demand for longer duration Treasuries right now, and weak results at today’s auction could send those yields higher which has the potential to trigger some profit taking in equities.

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The Economy: Landing or Crashing?

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The Economy: Landing or Crashing? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Economy:  Landing or Crashing?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will A September Rate Cut Become a Guarantee This Week?
  • Weekly Economic Data:  Inflation Back in Focus (CPI This Week)

Futures are little changed despite positive geo-political news over the weekend.

In France, the “far-right” National Rally party underperformed expectations and will not be the majority party, reducing the chances of radical French policy changes.

In the Middle East, chatter surrounding a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas continues to get louder and a deal could be announced soon.  That news is weighing on oil this morning.

This week will be an important one with two days of Powell testimony, the CPI report and the start of the Q2 earnings season, but today will be relatively quiet as there are no economic reports today and no Fed speakers.

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This number reinforces expectations for a September rate cut

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Expectations for a September rate cut: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Give Back Gains. Bond Yields Spike.

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the report was more of a “Goldilocks” number, meaning it was “just right.” He cited rising new orders, a leading indicator, and declines in prices that indicate easing inflation pressures.

“In the short term, this number reinforces expectations for a September rate cut (which is positive) but at the same time, and beyond the short term, it does keep alive concerns that the economy is weaker than people think and we continue to think that’s the biggest risk to the rally as we start the second half of 2024,” says Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on July 1st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview

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Jobs Report Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • JOLTS Report Takeaways

Futures are slightly higher as Powell’s dovish comments continue to be digested amid more Goldilocks economic data overnight.

In Asia, Australian Retail Sales rose 0.6% vs. (E) 0.3% but China’s Services PMI dropped to 51.2 vs. (E) 53.4.

In Europe, the Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 50.9 vs. (E) 50.8 while the EU PPI fell -4.2% y/y vs. (E) -4.1%, both of which are helping bonds remain stable ahead of multiple important economic releases in the U.S. today.

Looking into today’s session we will first get more labor market data with the ADP Report (E: 161K) and Jobless Claims (E: 233K) releases before the open. The market is looking for as-expected numbers and any signs of material weakness or data that is “too hot” could trigger some profit taking in thin holiday trading with stock indices sitting on record highs.

At the top of the 10:00 a.m. hour Wall Street time, the ISM Services Index (E: 53.0) and Factory Orders (E: 0.2%) reports will be released. The ISM will be the release to watch with investors again looking for stability in the headline but also a favorable move lower in the prices subindex to help confirm the disinflation trend has indeed resumed.

There is also one Fed speaker today: Williams (7:00 a.m. ET) and the FOMC Minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET which is after the NYSE’s early close (1:00 p.m. ET) ahead of the 4th of July holiday tomorrow.

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Is Q2 Sector Performance Warning About Growth?

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Is Q2 Sector Performance Warning About Growth? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Second Quarter Market Performance Warning About Economic Growth?
  • Trading Color – NVDA Declines Mask Broad Market Gains to Start the Week
  • Chart – Equal Weigh S&P 500 Unchanged From Early March

Futures are modestly higher this morning as mega-cap tech recovers some of yesterday’s losses in the pre-market with NVDA up over 3% amid an otherwise quiet night of news.

There were no notable economic reports or market moving catalysts overnight.

Today, investor focus will be on a combination of economic data, Fed speak, and a key Treasury auction

Economically, we will get Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 7.0%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 6.7%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 100.0) releases this morning and there are two Fed speakers: Bowman (7:00 a.m. & 2:15 p.m. ET), Cook (12:00 p.m. ET).

In the afternoon, traders will await the results of a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong demand (lower yields) will reaffirm the dovish shift in Fed policy expectations this month while weak demand (rising yields) could rekindle higher-for-longer policy rate worries and spark risk-off money flows.

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Summer’s Finally Here – Investing in the Kids

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Summer’s Finally Here – Investing in the Kids: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Summer’s Finally Here – Investing in the Kids
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly lower as global economic data missed estimates and further pointed towards a slowing of growth.

The Euro Zone flash PMI dropped to 50.8 vs. (E) 52.4 and UK Flash PMI fell to 51.7 vs. (E) 53.3 and those soft readings are increasing global growth concerns and that’s weighing on futures.

Economic data will again be in focus today and, by far, the most important report is the June Flash Composite PMI (E: 51.6) and given the softness in economic data this week, the stronger this number, the better.

Other notable economic reports today include Existing Home Sales (E: 4.10 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.3%) but it’ll take big surprises for them to move markets.

Finally, today is a “Quadruple Witching” options expiration so there may be higher than normal volumes and greater than normal volatility into the close.

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