Whether or not the performance of these cyclical stocks trading at cheap valuations can continue to lead the market depends on whether faith in an accelerating economy is correct. Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report, is not ready to endorse this view just yet. “In the last few days there have been hints of stabilization in the growth data, but just hints…” he wrote in a Tuesday note to clients. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Does this Cyclical Rotation Have Legs?
- Factory Orders Data Takeaways
- Dr. Copper Update
U.S. stock futures are higher this morning and global stocks rallied overnight thanks to more positive trade headlines and mostly “Goldilocks” economic data overseas.
The Financial Times was the first to report the Trump administration is considering rolling back $112B worth of tariffs that went into effect on September 1st which would be a significant concession and first sign of real progress towards a “phase one” deal being reached.
Economically, the first composite PMI reports were released overseas and both the Chinese and British figures firmed in October, further easing concerns about the health of the global economy.
Today, there are several economic reports due to be released: International Trade (E: $52.5B), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 53.5), and JOLTS (Previous: 7.051M, while two Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Kaplan (12:40 p.m. ET) and Kashkari (6:00 p.m. ET).
Beyond the data and Fed speakers, focus will be primarily on the trade war as investors look for further insight to whether or not the Trump Administration will move forward with tariff rollbacks and delays as was reported overnight. Any confirmation would be well-received and see stocks extend this recent squeeze higher towards 3,100 in the S&P.
“People had aggressively pushed cyclicals higher over the past two weeks,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. “But in order for that to work out beyond the short term, we need to see economic data get better, and that’s not really happening.” Click here to read the full article.
“People had aggressively pushed cyclicals higher over the past two weeks. But in order for that to work out beyond the short term, we need to see…” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Time to Buy Cyclicals?
- Do I Believe in the Breakout? (No)
- EIA & Oil Market Update
- Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview
Futures are marginally higher mostly on momentum from yesterday’s rally, although a small reserve rate cut in China is also helping global stocks rally.
Economic data continued to underwhelm, as Japanese Household Spending (0.8% vs. (E) 1.0%) and German Industrial Production (-0.6% vs. (E) 0.4%) both missed estimates.
Today focus will be on two key events, the Jobs Report (E: Jobs: 160K, Unemployment: 3.7%, Wages: 0.3%) and a speech by Fed Chair Powell (12:30 p.m. ET). Short term momentum in the markets is clearly higher right now, so to extend this week’s rally, both events just need to be “Goldilocks” in so much as the job number hits our “Just Right” range, while Powell simply leaves the door open to more accommodation in September, and beyond.
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