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Why the Crypto ETF Floodgates May Open Soon

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Crypto ETF Floodgates May Open Soon
  • Weekly Market Preview: Fed Decision and the Most Important Week of Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Does Data Stay Goldilocks?

Futures are moderately higher on trade optimism following positive comments on U.S./China trade negotiations.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said U.S./China trade talks went “very well” this weekend, reducing fears of additional tariffs and raising hopes for tariff relief.

Economically, German IFO Businesses Expectations were better than estimates (91.6 vs. (E) 89.4).

Today we do get two economic reports, Durable Goods (E: 0.01%) and New Home Sales (E: 710k) and markets will want to see in-line numbers to keep the Goldilocks data trend in place.

Beyond today, this is a potentially important week that contains a Fed decision (possibility of a dovish surprise) but, more importantly, key Tech/AI earnings and markets need to see a dovish Fed and strong AI earnings to keep the rally going.

Some earnings we’re watching today include: KDP ($0.54), CAR ($8.11), and WHR ($1.41).

Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey: AI Stock Stumble Signals Bearish Exhaustion

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Mega-cap tech weakness poses broader risks to equity markets

AI stock boom starts to stumble as investors increase bets against sector

A recent stumble in AI-related stocks “highlights some degree of bearish exhaustion in the underlying AI narrative,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“There are signs the market is turning on AI stocks,” Richey warned, adding that a meaningful and lasting rethinking by investors could pose significant risks for the broader equity market. The concern stems from the heavy concentration of mega-cap tech stocks such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta within the S&P 500 and other major indexes.

“This could be extremely detrimental to even the most vanilla index strategies,” Richey said. With a record amount of U.S. personal wealth tied to equities, a major AI-driven drawdown could create a negative wealth effect, fueling a bear market in stocks and risk assets while pushing investors toward safe havens amid a weakening economy.

Also, click here to view the full article published in S&P Global on September 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Ethereum’s Outperformance Over Bitcoin Carries Equity Market Signals

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ETH/BTC rallies have historically preceded stock market peaks

Bitcoin Vs. Ethereum: Why I’m Closely Watching Their Trading Relationship

Since early July, a noteworthy shift has emerged in the crypto space, with Ethereum meaningfully outperforming Bitcoin, according to Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research. The long-ETH/short-BTC trade has accelerated rapidly as both cryptocurrencies surged toward record highs.

At first glance, investors might dismiss the move as noise. But Essaye noted that past accelerations in the ETH/BTC ratio often aligned with powerful equity rallies that eventually gave way to broader market peaks.

“In prior cases over the last 10 or so years, every time we have seen such a robust and pronounced rise in the ETH/BTC crypto-pair, stocks have been sprinting higher in lockstep,” Essaye said. However, he cautioned that once the momentum faded from those rallies, equity investors who did not raise their guard often faced sharp pullbacks.

Bottom line: While the latest ETH/BTC surge reflects strong demand for Ethereum, it may also serve as an early warning indicator for stock markets if the historical relationship holds true.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on September 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Rising ETH/BTC Ratio Could Signal Stock Market Volatility

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Tom Essaye: Rising ETH/BTC Ratio Could Signal Stock Market Volatility

Why the S&P 500 could be at risk of a 10% to 20% pullback if ether falls behind bitcoin again

History suggests that a resurgence by Bitcoin in which it underperforms Ethereum could be a warning sign that stock-market volatility is about to increase, with the S&P 500 potentially facing a decline of 10% to 20%, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

Since early July, Ether has outpaced Bitcoin by a wide margin, rising 44% compared with Bitcoin’s 4% gain after trailing the world’s largest cryptocurrency for months. Historically, a rising ETH/BTC ratio has often coincided with sharp, short-lived rallies in equities that eventually gave way to market peaks, Essaye wrote in a Thursday note.

“In the last 10 or so years, every time we have seen such a robust and pronounced rise in the ETH/BTC crypto-pair, stocks have been sprinting higher in lockstep,” Essaye said. Strong bursts in ETH/BTC have historically lined up with important turning points in equities, among them the “low-volatility” rally of 2017 that preceded the 2018 selloffs, the spike in late 2019 ahead of the 2020 pandemic crash, and the 2021 rally that gave way to the 2022 bear market, he noted.

The ETH/BTC ratio has also surged 130% from its five-year low in April this year, moving in step with the strong tech-led rebound in stocks from their early April 2025 lows, Essaye added.

The one exception came in 2023 and 2024, when Bitcoin consistently outperformed Ether even as stocks remained strong, a departure from the earlier pattern. That contrast makes the current setup especially notable. With ETH/BTC rising again, investors should watch closely in case the historical relationship reasserts itself, Essaye said.

On Aug. 24, the ETH/BTC ratio touched 0.043, its highest level since September 2024, according to FactSet. Ether has gained 38.5% year to date, including a 75.9% surge in the past three months, compared with Bitcoin’s 20.3% year-to-date rise and 6.3% gain over the past three months.

“The risk of the long-ETH/short-BTC trade becoming exhausted appears underappreciated,” Essaye warned, pointing to signs that the momentum has slowed. The uptrend in place since August could soon be tested from the technical perspective, he added.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on August 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report: Ethereum’s Rally vs. Bitcoin Raises Red Flags

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ETH/BTC rallies have historically aligned with equity blowoff tops

Why the long-ETH/short-BTC trade matters

According to the latest Sevens Report, Ethereum has “meaningfully outperformed Bitcoin with the Long-ETH/Short-BTC trade accelerating rapidly as both cryptos surged towards record highs.” While many traditional investors might dismiss the shift, Sevens emphasized that “there is a key underlying takeaway sourced in cross-asset analysis.”

Historically, sharp ETH/BTC rallies have coincided with “squeezy yet powerful rallies in equity markets preceding near-term blowoff tops.” Examples include the 2017 ETH/BTC surge ahead of the 2018 equity drawdown, a 2020 spike before the pandemic selloff, and a 2021 rally that foreshadowed the “Double Bear Market” of 2022.

Sevens noted that the latest 130% ETH/BTC rally off April lows “has obviously coincided with the resilient tech-led rally in stocks off the 2025 lows.” Unlike 2023–2024, when ETH lagged while equities climbed, the current setup suggests stocks may be vulnerable if crypto momentum fades.

“Bottom line, in prior cases over the last 10 years, every time we have seen such a robust and pronounced rise in the ETH/BTC crypto-pair, stocks have been sprinting higher in lockstep. However, once the upside momentum faded from ETH/BTC rally, it would have been prudent for equity investors to put their guard up,” Sevens concluded.

Also, click here to view the full article on Yahoo Finance published on August 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Technical Assessment: Bitcoin vs. Ethereum

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Technical Assessment:  Bitcoin vs. Ethereum

Futures are flat following very slightly underwhelming NVDA earnings amidst an otherwise quiet night of news.

NVDA beat earnings and revenue estimates but guidance didn’t meet very elevated expectations.  NVDA is down –2% pre-market but results weren’t disappointing enough to shake broader AI enthusiasm (so the slightly underwhelming NVDA earnings shouldn’t impact the broader market).

Today focus will be on economic data and the key report is Weekly Jobless Claims (E: 230K).  Claims jumped last week and if that continues this week we’ll see a small uptick in labor market anxiety ahead of next Friday’s jobs report (which could put a headwind on markets today).  Other economic reports today include Revised Q2 GDP (E: 3.1%) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.2%) while we also have one Fed Speaker, Waller at 6:00 p.m. ET.  However, barring a major negative surprise, all of that is unlikely to move markets.

On the earnings front, the reports continue and important results we’re watching today include: BBY ($1.22), MRVL ($0.51) and DELL ($2.09).

 

Bitcoin Slides After Inflation Data; Essaye Sees Long-Term Bullish Shift

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Sevens Report founder notes policy support and strategic reserve chatter

Bitcoin sinks following hotter-than-expected inflation print, Bessent comments on strategic reserve

Bitcoin dropped following hotter-than-expected inflation, with strategists highlighting both macro headwinds and the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance. “The administration is pushing crypto. They are pushing Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the lead dog in the crypto market,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Yahoo Finance interview.

While Essaye acknowledged near-term froth, he stressed that structural changes—such as policy support and discussions of a strategic reserve—could underpin longer-term strength in the asset class.

Also, click here to view the full article on Yahoo Finance published on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed: Bitcoin Still Speculative but Poised for Long-Term Gains

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Institutional adoption and policy push could fuel higher prices

Is it time to view bitcoin as a stock?

John Campbell of Allspring Global Investments and Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye discussed bitcoin’s evolving role in markets, with Essaye noting that while the cryptocurrency remains somewhat speculative in the short term, institutional adoption is accelerating.

Essaye highlighted growing integration of bitcoin into traditional finance and banking, alongside policy support from the administration, as bullish long-term drivers. “Is it short-term a little frothy? Sure,” he said, “but longer term there are some fundamental changes here that I think will send it much higher.”

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

August Bitcoin/Crypto Industry Update and Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August Bitcoin/Crypto Industry Update and Outlook
  • Weekly Market Preview:  More Clarity Coming on Geo-politics, Trade and Inflation?  (If so, it’d be Positive for Stocks)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Inflation and Growth Updates via CPI and Retail Sales

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

News flow was minimal over the weekend but investors are looking forward to another important week for geo-politics (Russia/Ukraine ceasefire?), trade (China tariff extension?) and stagflation (CPI and Retail Sales).

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Italian CPI, which met expectations (0.4% m/m, 1.7% y/y).

Today there are no economic reports so focus will be on geopolitics and trade.  Any headlines that hint at a ceasefire in Ukraine and/or confirm an extension of current Chinese tariff rates will be a mild tailwind on stocks.

 

Stablecoin Primer: Why Last Week’s Legislation Was Important

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Stablecoin Primer:  Why Last Week’s Legislation Was Important

Futures are little changed following a night of mixed earnings followed by more mixed economic data.

The EU July flash PMI slightly beat estimates (51.0 vs. (E) 50.9) while the UK reading missed (51.0 vs. (E) 51.7) but both numbers were above 50 and signaling expansion.

On earnings, GOOGL posted solid numbers (up 3% pre-market) while TSLA underwhelmed (down 6% pre-market).

Today focus will turn towards economic data and there are two notable reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.7).  If both reports are solid, look for the rally to continue driven by cyclical sectors, as investors embrace a potentially re-accelerating economy.  We also get New Home Sales (E: 650K), although that shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, the season remains “fine” so far.  Key reports we’re watching today include: INTC ($0.14), AAL ($0.79) and BX ($1.10).