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Implications of Powell’s Criminal Investigation

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Implications of Powell’s Criminal Investigation
  • CPI Data Takeaways

Futures are moderately lower due to ongoing geopolitical angst and growing concerns about Japan’s fiscal situation ahead of snap elections announced for February.

Economically, Chinese trade data was strong overnight with Imports +5.7% vs. (E) -0.1% and Exports +6.6% vs. (E) +3.0%.

Today, investors will get a look at some delayed economic data from Q4’25 including PPI (E: 2.7% y/y), Core PPI (E: 2.6%), Retail Sales (E: +0.2%), and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.23 million). Investors continued to look for strong, but not “hot” growth numbers and “cool” inflation data.

There are multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Paulson (9:50 a.m. ET), Miran (10:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Kashkari (12:00 p.m. ET), and Williams (2:10 p.m. ET) with markets likely most focused on “Fed Independence” and any shifts in tone regarding 2026 rate cuts.

Finally, earnings season is continuing to ramp up with reports due from WFC ($1.66), C ($1.65), and BAC ($0.95) today.

 

How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Treasury Yields Remain Stable? (CPI, Possible SCOTUS decision, Fed concerns)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus This Week

Futures are moderately lower following the announcement of a federal criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell.

On Sunday night the government confirmed it had opened a criminal investigation focused on Fed Chair Powell and the construction of the Fed’s new headquarters.  The net impact of the news is to further pressure Fed independence and that is why futures are declining moderately.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there are no economic reports so focus will be on Washington, first via more details of the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell and then on a potential Supreme Court IEEPA tariff decision.  Regarding the Fed, any news that further raises concerns about the loss of Fed independence will send Treasury yields higher and stocks lower.

There are also three Fed speakers today, Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (6:00 p.m. ET) and any dovish commentary from the three should help support markets (Williams is the most important speaker today).

 

Are Rare Earth Materials the New AI?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Rare Earth Materials the New AI?
  • Precious Metals Update – Is the Gold Rally Over?

Futures are steady this morning amid a mostly quiet macroeconomic backdrop with tech shares lagging after NFLX (-6.5%) and TXN (-7.7%) missed on earnings after the close yesterday.

Economically, U.K. CPI was unchanged at 3.8% vs. (E) 4.0% y/y in September, further easing global inflation worries.

There are no economic reports today and just one Fed official scheduled to speak later in the day: Barr (4:00 p.m. ET).

The Treasury will hold auctions for 4-Month Bills (11:30 a.m. ET) and 20-Yr Bonds (1:00 p.m. ET) which could impact fixed income markets and subsequently move equities amid an otherwise mostly quiet day today.

Finally, on the earnings front, we will get quarterly results from GEV ($1.78), T ($0.55), TMO ($5.50), TSLA ($0.41), IBM ($2.43), KMI ($0.28), and CME ($2.63) today with TSLA being in the spotlight as the first Mag-7 member to release earnings this season.

 

What Would Charles Dow Say About This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Would Charles Dow Say About This Market?

Futures are little changed as investors digest Thursday’s new highs and await results of the Trump/Xi phone call.

The BOJ made no change to rates, as expected, but the decision was hawkish as two members voted for a rate hike and that is weighing modestly on Japanese shares.

Economically, data largely met expectations as Japanese CPI, UK Retail Sales and German PPI were in-line with expectations.

Today focus will be on the Trump/Xi phone call (approximately around 9:00 a.m.) and if a broader trade deal with China is announced it’ll be an additional market positive.  Beyond trade headlines, there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Daly at 2:30 p.m. ET

 

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Levels S&P 500 Chart – September Update

Futures are solidly higher this morning thanks to strong tech earnings as traders await key U.S. inflation data.

ORCL shares are surging 30%+ in the pre-market as a measure of future revenue jumped $455B or 359% Y/Y in Q2 thanks to new AI-related cloud contracts.

Economically, Chinese CPI fell -0.4% vs. (E) -0.2% which is helping ease worries about a global resurgence in price pressures due to the trade war.

Today, trader focus will be on inflation data early with the August PPI report due out ahead of the bell (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.3% y/y).

After the open, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and investors will want to see ongoing signs of strong demand for Treasuries to shore up increasingly dovish Fed expectations.

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there is one notable company reporting quarterly results today: CHWY ($0.14).

 

What About the Yield Curve?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What About the Yield Curve (Recession Signal “On Hold”)
  • What CPI Means for Markets

Futures are trading at record highs, tracking global shares higher as traders cheer the latest evidence of benign inflation pressures despite the global trade war.

Economically, German CPI was unchanged at 2.0% in July, meeting consensus analyst estimates.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today however there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on investor expectations of Fed policy rates between now and year-end which could move markets.

Additionally, there are multiple Fed speakers including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET), and Bostic (1:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, there are some late season earnings releases to watch: EAT ($2.43), CSCO ($0.80), EQX ($0.02) but none are likely to materially move markets today.

 

August Bitcoin/Crypto Industry Update and Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August Bitcoin/Crypto Industry Update and Outlook
  • Weekly Market Preview:  More Clarity Coming on Geo-politics, Trade and Inflation?  (If so, it’d be Positive for Stocks)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Inflation and Growth Updates via CPI and Retail Sales

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

News flow was minimal over the weekend but investors are looking forward to another important week for geo-politics (Russia/Ukraine ceasefire?), trade (China tariff extension?) and stagflation (CPI and Retail Sales).

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Italian CPI, which met expectations (0.4% m/m, 1.7% y/y).

Today there are no economic reports so focus will be on geopolitics and trade.  Any headlines that hint at a ceasefire in Ukraine and/or confirm an extension of current Chinese tariff rates will be a mild tailwind on stocks.

 

June CPI Shows Early Tariff-Driven Inflation Signs

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Sevens Report says tariff pressures may be emerging in inflation data

Tariff Impact Starts to Show in June CPI Report

TARIFFS START TO BITE?

June’s CPI data came in mostly as expected — but Sevens Report flagged one critical detail: tariff price pressures may already be appearing.

  • Headline CPI: +2.7% YoY (vs. 2.6% est.)
    Driven by higher energy costs from Middle East tensions.

  • Core CPI: +2.9% YoY (in line with forecast)
    But up from May, suggesting an uptick that caught investors’ attention.

“There was enough in this report to keep alive concerns that tariffs will stoke inflation.” — Sevens Report

While the report doesn’t eliminate hopes for a Fed cut later this year, September is now far less likely.

Markets were flat at first — but as investors digested the data, stocks began to slip.

Bottom line: This CPI report was “no worse than feared,” but it’s the first real sign that Trump’s tariff policies are starting to ripple through prices — and the next wave of duties is just weeks away.

Also, click here to view the full article published in agweb.com on July 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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What Trump vs. Powell Means for Markets (Three Scenarios)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Trump vs. Powell Tensions Mean for Markets
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Market Update

Futures are slightly higher after a mostly quiet newswires night of news as tech shares catch a bid on the back of solid earnings and optimistic guidance from global chip-making giant TSMC overnight.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 2.0% y/y on the headline while the core figure edged up to 2.3%, also as expected.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with Jobless Claims (E: 233K), Retail Sales (E: 0.1%), the Philly Fed Surve (E: -0.4), Import and Export Prices (E: 0.2% m/m, -0.1% m/m), and the latest Housing Market Index (E: 33) all due to be released.

There are also multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Kugler (10:00 a.m. ET), Daly (12:45 p.m. ET), and Cook (1:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues with TSM ($2.37), GE ($1.43), PEP ($2.03), USB ($1.07), ABT ($1.25), NFLX ($7.07), and IBKR ($0.45) all scheduled to release quarterly reports today.

Bottom line, traders will want to see economic data that pushes back on the ideas of stagflation or a hard-landing (two economic worries of late) and hear a more dovish tone from Fed speakers amid more positive earnings news in order for stocks to extend the recent rally to new records.

Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)
  • Powell’s Tone Tilts Dovish
  • ISM Manufacturing Data Takeaways
  • Chart – Rise in JOLTS Highlights Labor Market Resilience

Stock futures are slightly higher but well off their overnight highs as traders mull President Trump’s fresh tariff threats (mostly directed at Japan) and await June payrolls data.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2% in May which was a slight negative regarding the outlook for the global economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak which will leave early focus on today’s June ADP Employment Report (E: 103K) due out ahead of the bell.

Additionally, UNF ($2.12) is due to report earnings (but the release should not materially move markets) and there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Bottom line, with the June jobs report looming tomorrow, a big surprise in the ADP could impact markets while the 4-Month Bill auction could shed light on Fed policy expectations (the more dovish, the better) but today should be a relatively quiet day of positioning into the BLS release barring any new trade war developments.