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Market Multiple Table: March Update

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Market Multiple Table: March Update: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – March Update
  • CPI Takeaways – Minimal Impact on Fed Rate Expectations

U.S. equity futures are flat as investors digest yesterday’s tech-led rally to fresh record highs in the S&P 500.

Overseas, Chinese developer Country Garden Holdings missed a yuan-denominated bond payment overnight which weighed on Asian markets.

Economically, U.K. monthly GDP and Industrial Production both largely met estimates, but Eurozone Industrial Production badly missed, falling -6.7% vs. (E) -2.7% in January.

Looking into today’s session, there are no economic reports or Fed speakers on the calendar which will leave traders focused on AI-focused names to see if the tech sector can lead stocks to new highs.

The one notable catalyst on the schedule today is a 30-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. A weak outcome could send yields higher which would act as a renewed headwind on stocks while a pullback in yields would be welcomed.

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Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies

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Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Government Shutdown Update
  • Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies
  • “Short-Volatility Trade” Update: Chart

Futures are little changed this morning as investors digest a hotter than expected inflation print out of Japan and still cautious gauge of consumer sentiment in Europe ahead of a busy day of economic data in the U.S.

Overnight, Japanese Core CPI fell to 3.5% vs. (E) 3.3% while the German GfK Consumer Climate Index edged up by a modest 0.7 points to -29.0 vs. (E) -29.6. Neither release was particularly positive for markets but futures are stable ahead of today’s domestic data.

Looking into today’s session, there are four economic reports to watch this morning: Durable Goods Orders (E: -4.5%), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.2%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 115.0). Markets will want to see stability in the housing market data and easing but not collapsing growth and sentiment numbers in order for stocks to hold near the recently established record highs.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Yesterday’s 2-Yr and 5-Yr Note auctions were weak, putting upward pressure on yields and if today’s 7-Yr auction is weak as well, expect the benchmark 10-Yr yield to test the critical 4.30% level which could weigh on equity markets.

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Why Have Stocks Already Recouped Most of Tuesday’s Losses?

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Why Have Stocks Already Recouped Most of Tuesday’s Losses? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Have Stocks Already Recouped Most of Tuesday’s Losses?

Futures are slightly higher mostly on momentum from Thursday’s rally and despite hotter than expected economic data and hawkish Fed commentary.

UK Retail Sales rose 3.4% vs. (E) 1.5% and that hot reading is pushing back on yesterday’s dovish expectations.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic pushed back on near term rate cut expectations during a speech Thursday night.

Today focus will remain on economic data and the key report today is PPI (E: 0.1% m/m, 0.7% y/y).  PPI isn’t as important as Tuesday’s CPI, but if it shows a similar pop higher, that add to inflation anxiety and likely push yields higher (and stocks lower).

Other notable data and events today include Housing Starts (E: 1.47 million), Consumer Sentiment (E: 80) and two Fed speakers:  Barr (9:10 a.m. ET), Daly (12:10 p.m. ET).  But, barring a big surprise from the data or Daly, they shouldn’t move markets.

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The Reason Stocks Dropped Was Because The CPI Report

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The Reason Stocks Dropped Was Because The CPI Report: Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks

Bitcoin breaks $52k, outperforms stocks to new 2024 high

After markets digested the CPI print in the US, inflation data from the United Kingdom came in lower than expected, showing prices are holding steadily at 4% higher year-over-year. The more positive inflationary data helped stock futures rise ahead of Wednesday’s open, Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research said.

It’s important to realize that while the hot CPI was the catalyst for yesterday’s stock and bond market declines, stocks didn’t decline because CPI implied inflation was bouncing back,” Essaye said. “Instead, the reason stocks dropped was because the CPI report was the first data point in 2024 to not confirm these fantastically positive assumptions that have driven this rally.”

Also, click here to view the full Blockwork article published on February 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Was Yesterday the Start of a Pullback?

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Was Yesterday the Start of a Pullback? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was Yesterday’s Hot CPI the Start of a Pullback? (Four Issues to Address)
  • VIX Chart Shows Options Trading Amplified Yesterday’s Selloff
  • CPI Takeaways

Stock futures are rebounding back from yesterday’s steep post-CPI selloff thanks to some “cooler” inflation data in the U.K. overnight and better than expected factory data out of Europe. The 10-Yr yield is stable, just below 4.30%.

Economically, the Q4 Eurozone GDP Flash met estimates at a tepid 0.1% y/y but EU Industrial Production jumped 2.6% vs. (E) -0.3% in December easing some ongoing growth worries.

U.K. PPI also favorably declined across the board which is offsetting the nation’s slightly higher than expected CPI data.

Looking into today’s session, there are no notable economic reports but two Fed officials who happen to be scheduled to speak at the open and close: Goolsbee (9:30 a.m. ET), Barr (4:00 p.m. ET).

Goolsbee is notably an FOMC voting member who leans towards the dovish camp and could potentially add support for a relief rally today after yesterday’s sharp decline. VIX futures expiration could also impact money flows in early trade.

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CPI Preview: Good, Bad, and Ugly

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CPI Preview: Good, Bad, and Ugly: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • CPI Preview – Good, Bad, and Ugly
  • Middle East Update: Understanding the Situation with Rafah

U.S. equity futures are lower with European shares as investors await today’s critical inflation data ahead of the bell while most Asian markets are closed for holidays.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey was mixed as Current Conditions deteriorated to -81.7 vs. (E) -79.0 but Economic Sentiment Improved to +19.9 vs. (E) +18.0. The headline miss is one more of several recent data points that suggests the German economy is slowing more rapidly than most anticipated.

Domestically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was disappointing as it fell to 89.9 vs. (E) 92.4 underscoring a downbeat and cautious mood among small business owners despite economic data otherwise pointing to continued resilience in the U.S. economy.

Today, focus will be almost exclusively on the CPI report (8:30 a.m. ET) with the headline expected to come in at 0.2% m/m and 3.0% y/y while the Core CPI figure is expected to come in at 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y (full scenario analysis in today’s report).

There are no Fed speakers on the calendar or Treasury auction scheduled for today which will leave the session likely dominated by how the market digests the latest inflation data. Market-based Fed policy rate expectations are currently pricing in a 16% chance of a March rate cut and a 56% chance of a May cut. If those two figures decline materially, especially the latter one, expect an extension of yesterday’s intraday pullback.

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What Could Interrupt This Rally?

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What Could Interrupt This Rally? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Could Interrupt This Rally?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can Inflation and Growth Data Push Stocks Even Higher?
  • Weekly Economic Preview:  CPI Tomorrow, Key Growth Readings Thursday.

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet weekend of news, although geo-political risks continued to creep higher over the weekend.

Israel is reportedly planning a ground offensive into the southern Palestinian province of Rafah and that’s met with pushback from numerous nations in the region and risks to further reduce any chances for a cease fire.

Today trading should be mostly quiet as the majority of Asian markets are closed for a holiday, but focus will be on the NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations (E: 3.00%) and any number below expectations will support Fed rate cut expectations (and support stocks).  We also have three Fed speakers today, Bowman (9:20 a.m. ET), Barkin (12:00 p.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

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Is NYCB the Canary in the Commercial Real Estate Coal Mine?

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Is NYCB the Canary in the Commercial Real Estate Coal Mine? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is NYCB the Canary in the Commercial Real Estate Coal Mine?
  • EIA Update and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are slightly lower following more disappointing Chinese economic data and on dimming hopes for an Israel/Hamas ceasefire.

Chinese CPI fell more than expected (-0.8% vs. (E –0.5%) and increased deflation concerns for that economy.

Geopolitically, Secretary of State Blinken returned from the Mid-East without a Israel/Hamas cease fire deal and oil is rallying as a result.

Today focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 222K), which rose to a one-month high last week and if claims move closer towards 250k, it will get people’s attention as a hint the labor market is starting to soften (something that’s not priced into stocks).  We also have one Fed speaker, Barkin (8:30 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

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Key Technical Levels to Watch on Fed Day

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Key Technical Levels to Watch: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Key Technical Levels to Watch on Fed Day (Shareable PDF Available)
  • Jobs Report Preview

Stock futures are in the red this morning after mega-cap tech earnings failed to meet overly optimistic estimates (but were not that bad, all things considered), Chinese Manufacturing PMI missed estimates, and French CPI was higher than expected.

On the earnings front, AMD (-11%), GOOGL (-6%), and MSFT (-1%) are all lower in the pre-market despite generally healthy quarterly reports with most earnings and revenue figures topping analysts estimates while some corporate guidance was not as strong as hoped.

Today is lining up to be a very busy day full of catalysts. Starting with the economic data, we get the first look at January labor market data with the ADP Employment Report (E: 130K) while Q4 Employment Cost Index (E: 1.0%) will offer a look at wage pressures from late 2023.

The Treasury will release the official Refunding Announcement details before the open (8:30 a.m. ET) before focus will turn to the Fed with the FOMC Decision (2:00 p.m. ET) and Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) in the afternoon.

There are no “Mag7” earnings today, but a few notables to watch include: MA ($3.08), QCOM ($2.37), and MET ($1.95).

Bottom line, equities are on edge in pre-market trade this morning with all of today’s catalysts looming, but, if the Treasury Refunding Announcement supports the bond market (keeps a lid on yields) and the Fed doesn’t not offer a hawkish surprise, we should be able to see markets stabilize. Conversely, any disappointments or hawkish reactions will support further volatility into the back half of the week.

Computer chips

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Fed Meeting Preview

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Fed Meeting Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Treasury Refunding Estimate Moved Markets
  • FOMC Meeting Preview

U.S. futures are slightly lower as yesterday’s late session rally is digested ahead of the Fed and key earnings reports.

Economically, Australian Retail Sales data from December missed (-2.7% vs. E: -0.6%) but the EU GDP Flash was slightly better than feared at 0.1% vs. (E) 0.0% Y/Y in Q4.

Today there are multiple economic reports beginning with housing market statistics ahead of the open: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.4%) and FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%). Some moderation in home prices would be welcomed ahead of the Fed today.

After the open, two more closely followed releases on the health of the consumer: Consumer Confidence (E: 112.5) and state of the labor market: JOLTS (E: 8.70 million) will be released. With the FOMC meeting beginning today and some mega-cap tech names reporting earnings after the close, it will take a big surprise in the data to materially move markets this morning.

Regarding earnings, we have entered the peak of the reporting season with several notables reporting this morning: GM ($1.08), UPS ($2.44), and SYY ($0.88) while some of the biggest tech names, MSFT ($2.76) and GOOGL ($1.60) will report after the close. AMD ($0.77), and SBUX ($0.93) are two other notable releases to watch.

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