Posts

Core PCE Price Index Preview (Next Potential Catalyst)

/in , /by

Core PCE Price Index Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Core PCE Price Index Preview (Next Potential Catalyst)

Futures are solidly higher following better than expected tech earnings overnight.

GOOGL (up 12% pre-open) and MSFT (up 4% pre-open) posted strong earnings results and that’s leading a rebound in tech stocks and pushing futures higher.

Economically, the Bank of Japan rate decision was slightly dovish as it kept rate unchanged and didn’t reduce QE.

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and the bottom line is this number needs to be at, or ideally under, expectations to help further fuel the earnings driven bounce in futures.  The other economic report today is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (E: 77.9, 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 3.1%) but barring a jump in inflation expectations, it shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Core PCE Price Index Preview (Good, Bad & Ugly).

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Core PCE Price Index Will Mean for Markets (Good, Bad & Ugly)
  • EIA and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are moderately lower mostly on positioning ahead of the Core PCE Price Index release but also in reaction to disappointing EU economic data.

German GDP underwhelmed and fell –0.4% vs. (E) -0.2% while Gfk Consumer Climate also slightly missed estimates (-30.5 vs. (E) -30.4).

Today, focus will be on inflation and the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.4% m/m, 4.3% y/y).  We have a full Core PCE Price Index preview in the Report, but generally speaking, if the numbers are below expectations, it’ll spark a rally, if they are around expectations that’s mostly priced in, and if Core PCE is higher than last month, prepare for a selloff.

Other data today includes Personal Incomes and Outlays (E: 1.0%, 1.2%), , New Home Sales (E: 617K) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 66.4), but barring a move in five year inflation expectations above 3% none of those reports should move markets.

Finally, we also have two Fed speakers today, Mester (10:15 a.m. ET) and Collins (1:30 p.m. ET).

The Key Influence on Markets as We Approach 2023

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Key Influence on Markets as We Approach 2023
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can Economic Data Help Stop the Selling?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Core PCE Friday the Key Report

Futures are slightly higher on a mild oversold bounce following last weeks’ losses and a quiet weekend of news.

China announced the closing of schools in Shanghai on Monday in response to surging COVID cases, but the broader economic reopening remains on track.

Economically, the German IFO Business Expectations Survey was higher than expected (83.2 vs. (E) 82.0) as was UK Industrial Trends (-6% vs. (E) -9%) but neither number is moving markets.

Today the only notable economic report is the Housing Market Index (E: 34) and markets will want to see continued moderation in the data (housing remains a major contributor to high CPI so more progress on that front will be a mild positive).