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Is the VIX Broken?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the VIX Broken?

Futures are modestly higher following in-line inflation readings from China and more gridlock in Washington as markets look ahead to today’s inflation readings.

Chinese CPI met expectations rising 1.6% and that benign reading will keep stimulus coming in that economy.

Politically, Arizona Senator Sinema left the Democrat party and registered as an independent, although the move is unlikely to change her voting patterns.

Today focus will be on inflation data, specifically PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 7.2% y/y) and the University of Michigan Five Year Inflation Expectations (E: 3.0%).  If those reports come in under expectations and further hint at dis-inflation, it will extend the early rally.

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels – S&P 500 Chart
  • VIX Breaks Longstanding Downtrend in Cautious Signal

Futures are modestly lower as persistent concerns about hawkish Fed policy and fading global growth overshadow positive Covid policy news out of China and encouraging EU economic data.

Economically, German Industrial Production was better than feared at -0.1% vs. (E) -0.6% while  Q3 Eurozone GDP topped estimates at 2.3% vs. (E) 2.1% Y/Y suggesting the EU economy may be stabilizing.

China’s NHC issued new guidelines on Covid restrictions overnight that eased certain testing and quarantine requirements and will hold a press conference tomorrow which points to the potential for more progress in moving away from Covid-Zero.

Looking into today session, there is one economic report before the bell: Productivity & Costs (E: 0.4%, 3.3%) and then Consumer Credit (E: 27.3B) will be released in the afternoon. The latter report is not one we typically follow closely but there has been increasing concern about the health of household balance sheets, so a sharp move higher in outstanding credit could raise concerns about defaults in the coming quarters.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers today but stocks have been taking queues from rate markets and the dollar so if either meaningfully move higher, that will add pressure to the broader equity market today.

Current Fed Expectations

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Current Fed Expectations (Print This Table/Section)
  • VIX Chart – Getting Closer to a Bearish Signal

Stock futures are rebounding modestly this morning following yesterday’s sharp drop as worries surrounding China’s Covid policies and the subsequent protests ease.

The Hang Seng jumped over 5% and the offshore yuan rallied 1% after the Chinese government announced a renewed push to vaccinate elderly citizens and said excessive restrictions will be avoided, both of which are incremental steps away from “Covid Zero.”

Today, market focus will be on housing data early with the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: -1.3%) and FHFA House Price Index (E: -1.2) due out ahead of the bell and then the Consumer Confidence (E: 100.0) report will print shortly after the open.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today so focus will likely remain on the situation in China, and if sentiment towards Covid policy expectations and the latest wide-spread protests improves then stocks will be able to stabilize as that was a major bearish influence on the market yesterday.

Economic Breaker Panel: November Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel – November Update

Stock futures are little changed in quiet holiday trading this morning as traders look ahead to the slew of economic data due out in the U.S. today as well as the release of the November Fed meeting minutes.

Economically, the Eurozone Composite PMI Flash came in at 47.8 vs. (E) 47.0 signaling economic contraction in the EU but the better-than-feared headline is helping European shares edge higher today.

This morning is lining up to be a busy one for economic data with Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.3%), Jobless Claims (E: 225K), PMI Composite Flash (E: 48.7), New Home Sales (E: 574K), and Consumer Sentiment (E: 55.0) all due to be released between 8:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. ET.

Additionally, the November Fed Meeting Minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Bottom line, with all the recent Fed speak, the Minutes are unlikely to offer any surprises today however data can move markets despite thinning attendance and light volumes. The market wants to see slowing but not collapsing growth measures and a downward acceleration in inflation (today’s inflation expectations within the Consumer Sentiment release will be the key figure to watch). If that materializes, the S&P might be able to break through key near-term technical resistance at 4,007 however high inflation and weaker-than-anticipated growth could send stocks tumbling back toward the lows of the week at 3,900.

All of us at Sevens Report Research are very thankful for your support! Everyone please travel safely, and have a Happy Thanksgiving. We will speak to you again Friday morning.

Three Keys to a Bottom Updated

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Keys to a Bottom Updated – Some Progress
  • Economic Data Recap – Soft Landing Hopes Fade
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Focus on PMI Data (Wednesday)

Stock futures are trading lower with global markets following negative Covid headlines out of China.

China reported a spike in Covid cases this weekend including the first Covid-related death in nearly six months which prompted new restrictions and lockdowns in cities that were previously in the process of reopening. That has triggered risk-off money flows this morning with equities declining globally and the dollar rising nearly 1% in early trade.

Economically, the German PPI for October was actually favorable as it fell a steep -4.2% vs. (E) +0.9%. However, in year-over-year terms, PPI remains up more than 30% which is a major headwind for the German economy.

Looking into today’s session, there are no economic reports and just one Fed speaker: Daly (1:00 p.m. ET) which will likely leave the focus on China and any new Covid-related headlines.

In the fixed income space, the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr Note auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 5-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. And if demand is soft and rates begin to move to meaningful new highs, expect selling pressure on the equity market to pick up moderately.

Key Inflation and Fed Events to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The State of Inflation and Fed Speak After CPI (Key Events to Watch)

Futures are pointing to a rebound from yesterday’s profit-taking pullback amid risk-on money flows in China overnight.

Economically, Chinese Retail Sales surprisingly fell -0.5% vs. (E) +0.8% in October but the weak data was followed by the PBOC injecting $150B into the system in new near-term stimulus measures which helped Asian markets rally overnight.

Meanwhile, Warren Buffet has reportedly accumulated a more than $4B stake in TSMC which is helping semiconductors lead equity markets higher this morning.

Looking into today’s session, traders will be watching economic data early with PPI (E: 0.5%, 8.3%) and the Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -7.6) due out before the open. For the equity rebound to resume we will want to see another cool inflation print from the PPI release and some signs of stabilization from the Empire release to help ease rising stagflation concerns.

There are also two Fed speakers to watch: Harker (9:00 a.m. ET) and Barr (10:00 a.m. ET). If they maintain a less hawkish tone, the S&P should be able to retest yesterday’s highs near 4,010, a key near-term technical resistance level.

Was Last Week’s CPI Report A Bullish Gamechanger?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was Last Week’s CPI A Bullish Gamechanger?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can Yields Keep Falling?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  More Key Inflation Readings This Week

Futures are modestly lower following some hawkish Fed comments and as investors digest last week’s big rally.

Fed Governor Waller made comments on Sunday that the Fed still has “a ways to go” before ending rate hikes, which is sapping some of last week’s soft CPI enthusiasm.

Positively, China continued progress towards abandoning “Zero COVID” and announced a stimulus plan for supporting the residential real estate market.

Today there are no notable economic reports and only one Fed speaker, Williams at 6:30 p.m. ET, but that won’t impact today’s trading.  So, we’d expect digestion of last week’s gains.  Politically, the Republican’s are still expected to win the House, but it will be close.  If Democrats look like they may win the House, that will likely weigh on markets as investors want a split government.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in ZeroHedge on November 8th, 2022

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WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Large Unexpected Crude Build

“The lack of a concrete timeline or any real details about plans to reopen the Chinese economy and move away from the still very strict and economically crippling restrictions weighed on the energy market into the afternoon,” wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch on November 8th, 2022

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Oil prices log back-to-back losses as investors assess China demand outlook

“The lack of a concrete timeline or any real details about plans to reopen the Chinese economy and move away from the still very strict and economically crippling restrictions weighed on the energy market into the afternoon,” wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Market Multiple Table: November Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – November Update
  • Chart – Value Stocks Down Just 5% YTD vs. More than 33% for Growth Stocks

Futures are lower while bond yields and the dollar are edging higher after Republicans likely took control of the House but disappointed versus expectations in the Senate races. The result is still seen as being some form of a split Congress, however, which is historically favorable for markets.

Economically, Chinese CPI fell to 2.1% vs. (E) 2.4% Y/Y and PPI was -1.3% vs. (E) -1.6% but the data did not move markets overnight as the focus in China is on reopening plans and not inflation pressures.

Looking into today’s session, there are no market-moving economic reports which will leave the focus on the midterm election results, and if Democrats do end up keeping the House (which is possible, but unlikely) expect a mild reversal of the WTD gains.

Outside of the election news, there are two Fed officials speaking today: Barkin (11:00 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Any meaningful dovish commentary or a strong auction could support a near-term equity rally but moves should be limited ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report.