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Tyler Richey Quoted in Troymedia.com as Oil Oversupply Pressures Grow

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OPEC+ blinks as oil oversupply pressures grow

The World Bank Group forecasts that excess global oil supply could average four million bpd by 2026. That kind of surplus has consequences. U.S. benchmark West Texas oil prices “could fall as low as the mid-US$30s within a year if the sizable physical market surplus expected in 2026 becomes reality,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Also, click here to view the full article on Troymedia.com published on November 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Markets Expect ‘Cooler Heads’ to Prevail in U.S.-China Trade Tensions

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Sevens Report says tariff threats are unlikely to weigh heavily on stocks unless a full-scale trade war erupts.

Markets believe U.S., China will find trade compromise – Sevens Report Research

According to Sevens Report Research, investors remain largely unfazed by renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, with markets betting that both sides will ultimately compromise. Tom Essaye noted that while President Trump’s tariff threats and Beijing’s export limits on rare earths have raised concerns, optimism ahead of a planned meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping has kept sentiment stable. Essaye said “scary headlines” are unlikely to drive markets lower as long as traders believe a full-blown trade war can be avoided. For now, stock direction remains more influenced by economic growth and AI enthusiasm.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on October 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Are Negative Trade War Headlines a Risk to the Rally?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Negative Trade Headlines a Risk to the Rally

Futures are modestly lower amid light profit taking after a mostly quiet night of news as traders await more important earnings releases due out this week.

There were no notable economic reports overnight and no material developments on either the U.S.-China trade front or the government shutdown negotiations.

There are no economic reports today, however the Treasury will hold 4-Week, 6-Week, 8-Week, and 4-Month T-Bill auctions between 11:00 and 11:30 a.m. ET. Bill auctions typically do not warrant much attention, but yesterday’s strong short-term Treasury auctions did coincide with a slowdown in the S&P 500’s intraday advance as economic angst seems to be building in the absence of major data recently.

There is one Fed speaker to watch today with next week’s October FOMC meeting coming into view: Waller (9:00 a.m. & 3:30 p.m.) and anything less than the dovish-leaning tone of recent could weigh on stocks.

Finally, earnings season continues with: KO ($0.78), GE ($1.46), LMT ($6.33), MMM ($2.10), NFLX ($6.89), ISRG ($1.99), and COF ($4.20) all due to report today, and investors will want to continue to see net positive surprises on both the top and bottom line to support optimism surrounding strong and resilient corporate financials in H2’25.

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are moderately lower mostly on continued concerns about loan quality for U.S. banks, although nothing new happened overnight to specifically pressure stocks.

Economically, the only notable report was EU HICP (their CPI) and it was a bit hot, as Core HICP rose 0.2% vs. (E) 0.1% m/m and 2.4% vs. (E) 2.3% y/y.

Today there are some economic reports, including Housing Starts (1.315M), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.2% m/m, 0.0% m/m) and Industrial Production (E: 0.1%).    There is also one Fed speaker, Musalem (12:15 p.m. ET).

However, they are unlikely to move markets.  Instead, focus on credit and loan quality at banks will be the main market driver and any headlines that imply TriColor and First Brands are isolated incidents (which they likely are) will help stocks rebound.

Finally, earnings season rolls on and some reports to watch today include:  SLB ($0.67), AXP ($3.96), STT ($2.62).

 

Credit Spreads: Are We Seeing Liquidity Tightening?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Credit Spreads: Are We Seeing Liquidity Tightening?

U.S. futures are solidly higher with European equity markets thanks to strong earnings from LVMH and ASML.

Economically, Eurozone Industrial Production fell -1.2% vs. (E) -1.6% m/m in August.

Today, there is one economic release to watch: the Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -0.9) and a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could move short duration yields.

Additionally, today will be a busy day of Fed Speak with Miran (9:30 a.m. & 12:30 p.m. ET), Bostic (12:10 p.m. ET), Waller (1:00 p.m. ET), and Schmid (1:35 p.m. ET) all scheduled to deliver comments over the course of the day.

Finally, investors will remain keenly focused on earnings with quarterly reports due from ASML ($6.36), BAC ($0.94), MS ($2.08), PGR ($5.08), ABT ($1.30), UAL ($2.64), and JBHT ($1.48) today.

 

Volatility Reset or New Volatility Cycle?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • “Volatility Reset” or the Start of a New “Volatility Cycle?”
  • Silver Joins Gold at All-Time Highs

Markets are trading with a clear risk-off tone this morning amid a reescalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China ahead of a slew of big bank earnings releases today.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.8 vs. (E) 100.5 in September but the Employment Subindex favorably rose for a fourth straight month which should help ease some labor market angst.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will remain on the trade war, specifically tensions between the U.S. and China, however, there are also two Treasury auctions (for 3-Month and 6-Month Bill at 11:30 a.m. ET) that could impact yields/Fed policy expectations and subsequently move equities.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers on the calendar today: Bowman (8:45 a.m. ET) and Powell (12:20 p.m. ET). Obviously, any less-dovish tone from Fed Chair Powell has the potential to add pressure to an already fragile and heavy equity market today.

Finally, today marks the unofficial start of Q3 earnings season with several big banks/financials reporting quarterly results including: BLK ($11.25), JPM ($4.83), GS ($10.93), WFC ($1.55), and C ($1.83) as well as other notables: JNJ ($2.77), DPZ ($4.00).

 

Is AI the Only Thing Supporting This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Last Week’s Takeaway: AI Enthusiasm Could Soon Be the Only Thing Holding Up This Market
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Fed Surveys in Focus

Stock futures are solidly higher this morning, recovering a good portion of Friday’s losses amid easing trade war fears.

President Trump dialed back Friday’s tariff threats on China with a post on Truth Social saying “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine,” which is fueling a relief rally today.

Economically, Chinese trade data was strong with exports jumping from 4.4% to 8.3% vs. (E) 6.5% in September.

There are no economic reports in the U.S. today and just one Fed speaker: Paulson (12:55 p.m. ET).

There is one noteworthy “bellwether” earnings release today: FAST ($0.30), however, with bond markets closed in observation of Columbus Day, it is likely to be a quiet day of volatility consolidation.

Two Events That Could Actually Cause a Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Events That Could Actually Cause A Pullback
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About the Fed (Does Powell Signal A September Cut on Friday?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Growth Updates This Week (Do They Push Back on Stagflation Worries?)

Futures are slightly lower as the Trump/Putin summit produced no substantial changes in the war amidst an otherwise quiet weekend (market focus is on Powell’s speech Friday and whether he hints at a Sept rate cut, or not)

The Trump/Putin summit resulted in neither a ceasefire nor the threat of oil sanctions and as such, the market is largely ignoring the event.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Focus today will be on geo-politics with President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.  From a market standpoint, its focus remains on oil prices.  If the cease fire efforts fail and Trump again threatens oil sanctions on China and other countries buying Russian crude, that will push oil prices higher and put a headwind on stocks.

Outside of geopolitics, there is one economic report today, NAHB Housing Market Index (E: 34) and an important earnings report after the close (Palo Alto Networks, PANW ($0.50).  Given last week’s underwhelming tech reports, markets will want to see a solid result.

 

Two Analogies to Explain Tariffs to Clients

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Analogies to Explain Tariffs to Clients
  • Weekly Market Preview:  How Does Iran Respond? (And Does That Increase Worries About the Conflict Spreading?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  More Important Growth Data This Week

Futures are slightly higher despite an increase in geopolitical tensions over the weekend.

The U.S. attacked and destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. But, despite ominous headlines, we are not seeing an increase in oil prices or geopolitical tensions in the markets as fears of the conflict spreading remain low.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics and specifically how Iran responds to the direct U.S. attack.  Despite the headlines about this event, from a market standpoint, unless investors fear the conflict will spread and engulf the entire region and dramatically reduce oil supplies, then rising geopolitical tensions won’t be a material negative on this market.

Economically, there are two notable reports today: Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.1) and the Flash Services PMI (E: 52.9) and markets will want to see stability in both to push back on slowdown fears. On the Fed front, there are multiple speakers today including Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:10 p.m. ET), Kugler & Williams (2:30 p.m. ET). But, with Powell’s testimony before Congress starting tomorrow, these speakers shouldn’t move markets.

FOMC Technical Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Technical Preview
  • Retail Sales Data Takeaways – Signs of Weakness in Consumer Spending

Futures are higher as investors continue to monitor the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and digest largely as expected European inflation data ahead of the Fed.

Economically, Eurozone HICP fell to 1.9% from 2.2%, as expected, while UK CPI edged down to 3.4% vs. (E) 3.5% which is supporting a bid in the global bond market with yields falling moderately in premarket trade.

Today, there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 244K) which come a day early, and Housing Starts and Permits (E: 1.360M, 1.430M). Another sharp rise in jobless claims could bolster concerns about the health of the labor market but a big reaction from markets is unlikely given the looming Fed decision.

Speaking of which, the primary focus of today’s session will be the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) as investors look for clarity on the future path of monetary policy.

There are two late season earnings releases to watch as well: ACB ($0.11) and KFY  ($1.25) but with the Fed in focus, neither should materially move markets today.