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Jobs Report Preview

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Jobs Report Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • JOLTS Report Takeaways

Futures are slightly higher as Powell’s dovish comments continue to be digested amid more Goldilocks economic data overnight.

In Asia, Australian Retail Sales rose 0.6% vs. (E) 0.3% but China’s Services PMI dropped to 51.2 vs. (E) 53.4.

In Europe, the Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 50.9 vs. (E) 50.8 while the EU PPI fell -4.2% y/y vs. (E) -4.1%, both of which are helping bonds remain stable ahead of multiple important economic releases in the U.S. today.

Looking into today’s session we will first get more labor market data with the ADP Report (E: 161K) and Jobless Claims (E: 233K) releases before the open. The market is looking for as-expected numbers and any signs of material weakness or data that is “too hot” could trigger some profit taking in thin holiday trading with stock indices sitting on record highs.

At the top of the 10:00 a.m. hour Wall Street time, the ISM Services Index (E: 53.0) and Factory Orders (E: 0.2%) reports will be released. The ISM will be the release to watch with investors again looking for stability in the headline but also a favorable move lower in the prices subindex to help confirm the disinflation trend has indeed resumed.

There is also one Fed speaker today: Williams (7:00 a.m. ET) and the FOMC Minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET which is after the NYSE’s early close (1:00 p.m. ET) ahead of the 4th of July holiday tomorrow.

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Strong demand (lower yields) will reaffirm the dovish shift in Fed policy

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Strong demand will reaffirm the dovish shift in Fed policy: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Mixed. Tech Is Bouncing Back.

“Strong demand (lower yields) will reaffirm the dovish shift in Fed policy expectations this month while weak demand (rising yields) could rekindle higher-for-longer policy rate worries and spark risk-off money flows,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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AI enthusiasm remains alive, well and raging!

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AI enthusiasm remains alive, well and raging!: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Large-Cap Chip Stocks Are Down Again. Will This Trend Continue?

“AI enthusiasm remains alive, well and raging!” Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, wrote Monday. “…Recent AI-related tech company earnings have been strong and despite concerns, the actual earnings growth around AI companies (especially chip and cloud companies) remains extremely strong.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Summer’s Finally Here – Investing in the Kids

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Summer’s Finally Here – Investing in the Kids: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Summer’s Finally Here – Investing in the Kids
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly lower as global economic data missed estimates and further pointed towards a slowing of growth.

The Euro Zone flash PMI dropped to 50.8 vs. (E) 52.4 and UK Flash PMI fell to 51.7 vs. (E) 53.3 and those soft readings are increasing global growth concerns and that’s weighing on futures.

Economic data will again be in focus today and, by far, the most important report is the June Flash Composite PMI (E: 51.6) and given the softness in economic data this week, the stronger this number, the better.

Other notable economic reports today include Existing Home Sales (E: 4.10 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.3%) but it’ll take big surprises for them to move markets.

Finally, today is a “Quadruple Witching” options expiration so there may be higher than normal volumes and greater than normal volatility into the close.

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The Fed outlook is essentially known at this point

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The Fed outlook is essentially known at this point: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stock Market Is In a Holding Pattern as Fed Officials Speak

“The Fed outlook is essentially known at this point,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

He says that whether a first rate cut comes in September or December, it won’t matter too much.

“Maybe it causes a percent or two of volatility, but I don’t think it’s a substantial issue anymore,” Essaye says. “We know we’re getting something in September or December. I think the bigger question is, what’s growth look like when we get it.”

That’s why markets may hope for upbeat economic data in the months ahead, as signs of a slowing for the economy could have a more substantial impact on stocks than a brief delay for rate cuts.

“In the grand scheme of things, 25 basis points in September versus December, that’s not going to stop a slowdown if it’s occurring,” he says. “If somebody came out and said, ‘We’re thinking about not cutting rates at all,’ that would move markets. But I don’t think there’s any chance of that happening.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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I expect the rest of the week to be very quiet

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I expect the rest of the week to be very quiet: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit New Records

“It essentially will kind of kill the week, to be honest, because anybody that can take Thursday and Friday off just got basically almost a week off,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “There will be plenty of people who will do that. So I expect the rest of the week to be very quiet.”

A wave of Federal Reserve speakers did little to shift the market. Investors know that interest rate cuts will depend on the data in the coming months. Essaye says it will take a surprise from economic data such as jobless claims to wake up the market this week.

“There’s really quite a confluence of data that’s starting to point to some labor market easing. In everyone’s concern that the economy is going to slow, that’s been the missing piece,” Essaye says.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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These are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market

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These are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market: Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil futures end higher as demand prospects improve

“Price-supportive OPEC+ rhetoric, evidence of strong domestic demand at the start of the U.S. summer driving season, rising geopolitical tensions overseas, and renewed hopes for a perfectly executed soft landing by the [Federal Reserve] are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“Sentiment is fragile, however, and if we see any headlines that contradict any of those factors that have supported the latest rally, or even just an uptick in broad market volatility into the end of the quarter, we could see oil markets correct back towards the mid-$70-a-barrel range,” he told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth

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Investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Market Had Another Great Week—but Trouble Still Lurks

In fact, investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth, wrote Sevens Report President Tom Essaye on Friday.

“To be clear, I’m not saying a slowdown is upon us and I’m not saying that the economic expansion is ending. Growth is still solid. What I am saying is that the market calculus…may be changing a bit at the margin,” Essaye wrote.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report

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The consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Lower. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Pull Back From Record Highs.

“But, more important than the consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “Markets will want to see stable consumer sentiment and better than expected inflation readings to rally.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Investors are taking a bit off the top with markets hovering near all-time highs.

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Investors are taking a bit off the top: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

2 Big Reasons Why the Dow and S&P 500 Are Down

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that he thinks investors are taking a bit off the top with markets hovering near all-time highs.

“I think that markets are, especially at these levels, a bit nervous that perhaps growth is stronger than they think, and maybe inflation is just a touch stickier than they think following the jobs report,” he said in a phone interview.

Essaye thinks that it would take a very hot inflation report, one that spooks even the generally dovish Powell, to send stocks falling fast on Wednesday.

“If that starts to percolate, that’s a substantial change, because now they may hike again,” Essaye said. “And that would cause volatility. I think the chances of that happening tomorrow are extremely slim, unless CPI is just a total shock.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 11th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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