“The stronger-than-expected ADP jobs report pushed the dollar and long-dated Treasury yields higher on Wednesday, as the bond market continues to price in more resilient growth and/or inflation,” Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, wrote Thursday.
Click here to read the full article.
“Looking into today’s session, focus will be on the U.S. credit downgrade as investors digest the potential implications on fixed income markets and re-assess valuations of risk assets,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.
Click here to read the full article.
Wednesday’s market action is a reminder to investors that stocks can still go down, Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, said in an interview with Barron’s.
“When you have a market that is essentially pricing in nothing bad happening and all of a sudden you get kind of a surprise – then it’s a reason to sell and I think that’s what we’re seeing today,” Essaye said.
Click here to read the full article.
“Dow Theory, which is one of the most historically accurate strategies to identify the primary trend in the stock market, is now saying the path of least resistance is higher for the first time since April of 2022,” wrote Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
However, last week’s readings point toward falling inflation and stable economic growth—a goldilocks scenario, or Immaculate Disinflation, as Sevens Reports’ founder Tom Essaye writes. However, last week’s readings point toward falling inflation and stable economic growth—a goldilocks scenario, or Immaculate Disinflation, as Sevens Reports’ founder Tom Essaye writes. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as markets digest the Wed/Thurs rally and focus turns to the start of the Q2 earnings season.
Economically, there was more evidence of global disinflation (or deflation) as German Wholesale Prices (think their PPI) declined –2.9% y/y vs. (-1.2%) y/y.
Today focus will be on earnings, as we get several major bank earnings results: JPM ($5.92), C ($1.31), WFC ($1.15), and BLK ($8.47) as well as UNH ($5.92). These large cap companies usually don’t provide too many surprises in their earnings reports, but markets will want to hear positive commentary on the overall environment to further support this latest rally in stocks.
There are also two notable inflation linked economic reports today, Import & Export Prices (E: -0.2%, -0.4%), Consumer Sentiment (E: 65.0), but barring any major surprises they shouldn’t move markets.
“At this point, and with yields this high, markets need to see solid data and that means the ISM Manufacturing PMI moving closer towards 50 and beating expectations,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye writes. Click here to read the full article.
Oil stabilized at support near the 2023 lows following Wednesday’s weekly Energy Information Administration report, which showed a “massive draw” in commercial crude-oil stockpiles, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Futures are moderately higher mostly on momentum and end of quarter/half positioning, as economic data overnight was mixed but not bad enough to interrupt the rally, said Tom Essaye, founder at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
The 23 largest banks in the U.S. passed the Fed’s annual stress tests, and while none were expected to fail, the fact that there were no negative surprises is a general positive for the banking sector and financials, Tom Essaye, founder of research firm Sevens Reports, wrote Thursday. Click here to read the full article.
