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Can the Market Rally Without AI and a Dovish Fed?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Market Rally Without AI and a Dovish Fed?
  • Weekly  Market Preview: Santa Rally On?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Insight on Growth

Futures are marginally higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rally and following a quiet weekend of news, as AI linked tech stocks continued to rebound.

Both gold and silver hit new all-time highs on rising geopolitical tensions as U.S. forces boarded another oil tanker bound for Venezuela, further increasing tensions.

Economically, the only notable report overnight was United Kingdom Q3 GDP, which met expectations rising 0.1% q/q and 1.3% y/y.

Market and economic calendars are mostly quiet this week and that includes today as there are no notable economic reports or Fed speakers.  That said, geo-politics remains a potential market mover this week, if we see a further increase in tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.

 

Why Gemini Could Weigh on AI Enthusiasm

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Google’s Gemini Update Could Further Pressure AI Enthusiasm

Futures are higher on strong earnings and guidance from MRVL after the close yesterday (shares +10% premarket this morning) ahead of the release of a slew of key economic data today.

Overnight, global Composite PMI data was solid as Chinese, U.K., and Eurozone releases all topped estimates with headlines in expansion territory.

Today, there is a long list of data due out in the U.S. including the ADP Employment Report (E: 20K), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.2% m/m, 0.0% m/m), Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), and the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.1).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however there is a mid-duration Treasury Bill auction (for 4-Month securities) that could shed light on current Fed policy expectations; the more dovish the outcome/stronger the demand for the Bills, the better.

Finally, Q3 earnings continue today with results due from DLTR ($1.09), M ($-0.13), RY ($2.52), CRM ($2.15), SNOW ($-0.58), and AI ($-0.75), and investors will be looking for more strong results, particularly from the tech companies reporting today.

 

Is Something Wrong with AI Enthusiasm?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Something Wrong with AI Enthusiasm?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Earnings Help the Tech/AI Stocks Stabilize?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: What Will Delayed Data Tell Us (Growth Stable, or Not?)

Futures are moderately higher as the Senate voted to, effectively, end the government shutdown later this week.

The Senate passed an important procedural vote late Sunday night that paved the way for the government to reopen later this week, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history and removing an increasing economic headwind.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

There are no economic reports today so focus will be on Fed speak (Daly at 8:30 a.m. ET), and earnings, as AI darling CRWV ($-0.39) reports after the close (and the stronger the report, the better for tech and the market).

AI Stocks Face Caution as Broader Market Slips, Says Essaye

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Tom Essaye notes recent weakness outside AI but calls the selling “knee-jerk,” not the start of a larger downturn.

Review & Preview: Tech Check

“Essentially the rest of the stock market has been going down for over a week now and the only thing that’s been holding the S&P 500 up are the AI names,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told me. “And now we have a very direct series of headlines of caution…on the increases in the AI-related stock prices.”

Still, this might simply be “knee-jerk selling,” according to Essaye.

“I don’t think that this is the start of something much bigger,” Essaye says. “The market seems absolutely fine, still embracing a lot of these AI-related headlines, but I do think that we’re going to get these temporary moments of caution because the whole debate ‘Is AI a bubble or not?’ it’s still incredibly unsettled.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on November 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Companies Financing AI: Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance

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Tom Essaye joins Yahoo Finance to discuss Big Tech names financing artificial intelligence (AI) buildouts with debt

Google, Meta finance AI with debt: Why it’s ‘bullish’ for now

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye, Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré, and Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Brooke DiPalma join Opening Bid host Brian Sozzi to discuss the Big Tech names financing artificial intelligence (AI) buildouts with debt.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on November 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Research founder interviewed on Yahoo Finance discussing Apple’s comeback in the AI race

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The bulk of earnings season is here as Tom Essaye joins Yahoo Finance

Apple nears $4T market cap. Is it catching up in the AI race?

Yahoo Finance Senior Business Reporter Ines Ferré and Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye join Opening Bid host Brian Sozzi to discuss Apple’s comeback in the artificial intelligence (AI) race.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on October 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Declines Could be Sharp and Painful – Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

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The declines could be sharp and painful warns Tom Essaye

US Stocks Bounce as Waning Trade Fears, AI Deal Fuel Dip Buying

“As long as the AI capex enthusiasm lasts, stocks can hold on,” said Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. However, “if doubts emerge about the stimulative power of AI for the entire economy and market, then investors will have to face this less-than-ideal reality and the declines could be sharp and painful.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on October 13th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

AI Now the “Lynchpin” Holding Up Stocks, Warns Tom Essaye

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Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye cautions that AI enthusiasm is masking deeper market risks from tariffs, a cooling labor market, and government dysfunction.

‘AI is becoming a larger and larger lynchpin’ for stock market, analyst warns

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, warns that the stock market could face a “horror-movie scenario” if three key risks hit at once — an AI bubble burst, worsening consumer strain, and a weakening labor market. He points to OpenAI’s $500 billion valuation and stretched tech prices as signs of speculative excess. Meanwhile, rising delinquencies at companies like CarMax show lower-income consumers are increasingly pressured.

Essaye cautions that while the economy still looks stable on the surface, markets are ignoring the potential for rising unemployment and slowing growth. If AI optimism fades and consumer spending weakens, the S&P 500 could fall 20–30%, mirroring the drawn-out collapse of the early 2000s tech bubble.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on October 13th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

AI Spending Boom Keeps Markets Afloat, But Risks Loom, Says Tom Essaye

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Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye warns of sharp declines if confidence in AI’s economic impact fades, while Gabelli’s John Belton urges caution against “bubble” talk.

U.S. stocks rebounded strongly, with the S&P 500 rising 1.6% driven by AI capital expenditures

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said that the ongoing AI capital expenditure boom remains the key force sustaining stock market strength. However, he cautioned that if investors begin to question AI’s broader economic benefits, the resulting selloff could be “swift and painful.” Gabelli fund manager John Belton added perspective, acknowledging that while parts of the market appear overheated, labeling the trend as a full-blown “bubble” oversimplifies the situation.

Also, click here to view the full article on Chaincatcher.com published on October 13th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is AI the Only Thing Supporting This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Last Week’s Takeaway: AI Enthusiasm Could Soon Be the Only Thing Holding Up This Market
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Fed Surveys in Focus

Stock futures are solidly higher this morning, recovering a good portion of Friday’s losses amid easing trade war fears.

President Trump dialed back Friday’s tariff threats on China with a post on Truth Social saying “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine,” which is fueling a relief rally today.

Economically, Chinese trade data was strong with exports jumping from 4.4% to 8.3% vs. (E) 6.5% in September.

There are no economic reports in the U.S. today and just one Fed speaker: Paulson (12:55 p.m. ET).

There is one noteworthy “bellwether” earnings release today: FAST ($0.30), however, with bond markets closed in observation of Columbus Day, it is likely to be a quiet day of volatility consolidation.