What’s in Today’s Report:
- Is Stagflation Possible? Yes.
Futures are little changed ahead of this morning’s jobs report.
Economic data underwhelmed overnight with Japanese Household Spending falling –3.2% while German Industrial Production missed estimates (-1.3% vs. (E) 0.5%).
On COVID, headlines remain net negative as cases continue to rise and analysts look for any signs of a loss of economic momentum (so far there’s nothing concrete).
Today the focus is on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds: 900K, UE Rate: 5.7% and Wages: 0.3% m/m and 3.8% y/y. Again, the biggest risk to markets is for a “Too Hot” jobs number that shifts the tapering timeline, and if that occurs we should brace for volatility.