Inflation Update (It’s More Important Than Trade)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Inflation Update (This Is More Important Than the Trade Drama)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Update

Futures are decidedly weaker this morning following more hawkish trade rhetoric from President Trump overnight.

At a rally in Florida Trump said China “broke” the deal and reiterated his tariff threats.  Importantly though, nothing changed as far as actual negotiations and the Chinese trade delegation still arrives today.

Economically Chinese CPI generally met expectations at 2.5% yoy vs. (E) 2.6%.

Today the market will be held hostage again by trade headlines, but beyond the trade headlines there are two notable economic reports.

First, Jobless Claims (E: 215K) have risen lately and we’ll want to see that roll back over soon, otherwise it could be a negative signal on the jobs market.  Second, PPI (E: 0.3%), while not as important as tomorrow’s CPI, could still move markets given inflation’s new-found importance. Finally, there are three Fed speakers, Powell (8:30 a.m. ET), Bostic (10:45 a.m. ET) and Evans (1:15 p.m. ET), but none of them (including Powell) are expected to move markets.