Geopolitical Uncertainty Leaves Market Risks Skewed
Oil: Trading in a “War Range” After Testing Pre-Conflict Lows
WTI crude oil futures posted a strong rally to start the week as last week’s heavy selloff was predicated on optimism that the US and Iran were poised to make progress on peace talks. After testing pre-war lows in early July, WTI has rallied back into the H1 2026 “war range” between $85 and $105 per barrel, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.
The lack of any progress towards a lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran, paired with the disappointment surrounding failed efforts by Oman and Iran to strike an independent agreement, further added to a squeezy rally in oil. WTI futures ended Monday higher by 5.2%.
Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty leaves market risks skewed in favor of the oil bulls. Global supply dynamics are getting closer to increasingly dire levels with each passing week that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at an effective standstill.
Until there is clarity on when Hormuz may reopen for free trade, WTI is set to trade between a newly formed band of technical support spanning $70-$75 and resistance from $95-$100.
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