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Tom Essaye Quoted In The MoneyShow.com

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Oil: After Modest Pullback, Watch for These Trading Cues

Commodities were a push and pull between falling oil prices and rising precious and industrial metals near the end of last week. Looking forward, oil is still stretched enough in the short term that a more positive tone in the headlines could pressure prices moderately, suggests Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Brent crude prices dropped modestly from their recent peak near $109 per barrel after Saudi Arabia announced a credible plan to restore roughly half the capacity of its damaged East-West pipeline within a few days. Full pipeline operations aren’t expected to resume for six weeks. But even the promise of partially restored capacity put downward pressure on crude prices.

If we can get even a whiff of progress on a US/Iran ceasefire, that opens up more transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb — and oil can really begin to slide back toward pre-war prices. That’s especially true given recent bearish inventory data.

We just saw more supply than expected across the product spectrum. WTI crude inventories fell less than expected (-650k bbls vs. the estimate of -1.68MM bbls), while gasoline inventories rose 800k bbls compared to an expected 1.1MM barrel draw.

For the market to get real relief, though – which means Brent crude into the low-$90s or, ideally, sub-$90 – we will need to get actual progress towards not just a US/Iran ceasefire, but also broader regional calm.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com on September 21st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Tit-For-Tat strikes In The Middle East Makes A Ceasefire More Remote

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In a Quagmire Scenario, Here’s How and What to Trade

Reverting back to potential tit-for-tat strikes in the Middle East makes a ceasefire more remote. That means the global economy may have to endure an extended period of elevated oil, natural gas, and fertilizer prices that, over time, boost inflation, global bond yields, and potentially weigh on global growth, observes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

This matters to you for two specific reasons. First, higher yields are one of the biggest headwinds for stocks right now. Fears of a quagmire will boost commodity prices. That, in turn, will keep yields elevated, keep inflation elevated, and potentially pressure consumer spending and global growth.

Second, it can impact what outperforms in the markets. As we saw Friday, growth factors in the market face stiffer headwinds when yields rise sharply. Since most growth ETFs are tech-heavy, that means the S&P 500 Index could feel pressure. Advisors will again want to make sure they have balance across portfolios and not be too growth/tech/AI heavy.

Bottom line: The conflicts are again in the headlines and impacting markets. It’s critical we understand how and why, so we can look past scary/sensational headlines and focus on the legitimate risks to markets.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com on September 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Leaves Market Risks Skewed

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Oil: Trading in a “War Range” After Testing Pre-Conflict Lows

WTI crude oil futures posted a strong rally to start the week as last week’s heavy selloff was predicated on optimism that the US and Iran were poised to make progress on peace talks. After testing pre-war lows in early July, WTI has rallied back into the H1 2026 “war range” between $85 and $105 per barrel, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

The lack of any progress towards a lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran, paired with the disappointment surrounding failed efforts by Oman and Iran to strike an independent agreement, further added to a squeezy rally in oil. WTI futures ended Monday higher by 5.2%.

Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty leaves market risks skewed in favor of the oil bulls. Global supply dynamics are getting closer to increasingly dire levels with each passing week that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at an effective standstill.

Until there is clarity on when Hormuz may reopen for free trade, WTI is set to trade between a newly formed band of technical support spanning $70-$75 and resistance from $95-$100.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com on August 12th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The AI Trade Has Been More Volatile Advises Tom Essaye

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The AI Trade: How to Navigate Today’s More Nuanced Tech Boom

The AI trade has been a more volatile influence on markets so far in 2026 – and this price action reveals the it’s starting to become more nuanced. Understanding that nuance is now important for understanding if the market can still rally without AI leadership, advises Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Prior to 2026, the AI trade was basically a rising tide that lifted all tech boats regardless of their position in the AI/tech value chain. However, that’s changed. Now, there are three distinct groups/subsectors within the AI trade and they do not all trade together.

In fact, there’s growing evidence they may trade inversely to one another (at least partially and from time to time). Right now, the AI sector in the markets can be loosely grouped into three distinct buckets:

* Receivers of Capital (ROCs). These are the AI/data center infrastructure industries such as memory, semiconductors, networking, cloud storage, computing power, etc. These sectors have surged for most of 2026 as they are “receiving” the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent by the hyperscalers to build out AI data centers.

* Spenders of Capital (SOCs). These are the hyperscalers. They are the ones spending the hundreds of billions of dollars to build and manage AI data centers and create computing and memory capacity to support the rollout of AI across the economy.

* Software/Disrupted Sectors (SaaS). These are the sectors that may be at risk of having their business models “disrupted” (which is just financial media speak for damaged). AI could potentially replace these software solutions and skills and damage these companies’ long-term prospects.

Bottom line: Take stock of tech allocations to make sure they aren’t dramatically overweight semiconductors, memory, SaaS, hyperscalers, etc. Instead, have balance across the various parts of the AI value chain, including ROCs, SOCs and SaaS. That way, as the AI trade continues to evolve, you have balanced exposure to whichever part is taking a leadership role at that time.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on July 15th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Tom Essaye Quoted in The Money Show

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Currency Roundup: Watch the Dollar and Yen if You’re Trading FX

The US dollar rose to a multi-month high in overnight trade Monday amid negative geopolitical headlines. But ultimately the greenback paired gains and ended slightly lower as risk-on money flows returned with dip buyers at work in the equity market. The Dollar Index ended down 0.08%, notes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

The yen edged up 0.09%, a modest move that proved to be one of the larger fluctuations of the day in the foreign exchange space. Japanese GDP was revised up and the yen was close to the “currency intervention threshold” of 160 – where the government stepped in to defend the yen in recent weeks – scaring shorts out of the market.

In Europe, the euro rose 0.07% as traders fully priced in a rate hike from the ECB on Thursday. The pound was flat as traders digest mixed economic data with no BOE meeting to position into this week.

Looking elsewhere, the Aussie dollar edged up incrementally amid risk-on money flows and the Canadian loonie fell slightly despite firming oil prices. The sharp reversal in WTI and Brent from early session highs tamped down optimism for the nation’s largest export while currency traders digested news that the Canadian economy fell into a “technical recession” in Q1.

Bottom line: It was a quiet day in forex to start the week. But with several central bank decisions due later in the week, volatility in the space could pick up materially.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on June 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Tom Essaye Quoted In The Money Show

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SPX: The Underappreciated Force Behind Market Resilience

A key (and largely underappreciated) factor behind recent stock market resilience, with the S&P 500 Inex (^SPX) reversing from early losses to record highs late last week, was a meaningful shift in Federal Reserve sentiment, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

As the CME’s FedWatch tool shows, rate hike odds between now and the end of 2026 have reversed sharply to two-week lows – fading below 50% after being as high as 70% the week before.

That is noteworthy in the context of last week’s Goldilocks PCE data and lower-revised Q1 GDP growth. The data reduced the threats of runaway inflation and a run-hot economy.

Those were two simmering risks behind May’s Treasury yield breakout, including the 30-Year Treasury Bond yield hitting its highest level since 2007. With the 30-year now 20 bps below its mid-May peak, accelerating inflation and run-hot economy risks are being priced out. Plus, Fed policy expectations have shifted from a market headwind to a market-neutral/market-positive influence on risk assets.

In the sessions ahead, it will be important to see rate hike odds and Treasury yields continue to fade, as those fixed income dynamics are acting as a meaningful new tailwind for stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on June 1st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report: Gold Holds Bullish Bias After Less-Hawkish Fed

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Tom Essaye says the Fed decision supports year-end upside, but key levels matter.

Gold: After Post-Fed Boost, Keep These Key Levels in Mind

While not a bullish gamechanger, the net impact of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision will be to support a year-end rally and the reason is clear: The Fed wasn’t as-hawkish-as-feared. On the charts, gold remains rangebound between support at $4,200 per ounce and resistance at $4,400, observes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Commodities were mixed for most of the day Wednesday as traders awaited the conclusion of the Fed meeting. However, the less-hawkish cut the FOMC delivered sparked risk-on money flows in afternoon trade that saw economically sensitive industrial metals and energy futures outperform. Gold turned positive but lagged on the session.

Still, it lurched higher in after-hours trade to up 0.48% in part because the Fed announced a 30-day bond buying spree totaling $40 billion. Risks are still skewed to the upside in the direction of the dominant, primary uptrend that’s been in place all year.

Technical View: Gold market volatility has picked up in Q4 with risks of intermittent, deeper pullbacks elevated. However, the long-term trend remains bullish.

  • Primary Trend: Bullish (since the week of Nov. 27, 2023)
  • Key Resistance Levels: $4,290…$4,344…and $4,398
  • Key Support Levels: $4,134…$4,045…and $3,941.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on December 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

SPX: Hot PPI Threatens Key Pillars of Stock Market Rally Says Sevens Report

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Sevens Report president Tom Essaye warns inflation surprise clouds rate-cut hopes

SPX: PPI Shook the Pillars of the Stock Market Rally

Stocks rebounded from modest losses after Thursday’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) release, but the data rattled investors. Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report, cautioned that the July PPI “shook the pillars” of the S&P 500’s rally, which has leaned heavily on renewed rate-cut expectations.

“The headline surge was more than four times consensus and the strongest since March 2022,” Essaye said, noting that traders “sold first and asked questions later” as hopes for a September cut dimmed. Rising inflation pressures, he explained, are a direct threat to the macro drivers currently propping up equities.

Technically, Essaye sees the S&P 500 trend as “cautiously bullish” after the index hit new record highs. He flagged key resistance at 6,395, 6,427, and 6,500, while noting important support at 6,340, 6,238, and 6,104.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

SPX: Three Key Market Drivers Right Now Says Essaye

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Economic growth overtakes tariffs as top market influence

SPX: Today’s Three Most Important Stock Market Drivers

Stocks rallied Monday after last week’s sharp pullback, but Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report says fundamentals have slightly worsened since July.

Economic growth is now the primary driver of markets, with recession fears posing sharp downside risk regardless of Fed rate cuts. Fed policy ranks second, as investors look for confirmation of a likely September cut. Tariffs, once the dominant factor, now rank third, with rates expected to settle between 15%-20%, raising stagflation risks but adding some trade stability.

Also, click here to view the full article published in the MoneyShow on August 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Watch These Gold Levels as Bulls Target New Highs

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Watch These Support and Resistance Levels as Gold Eyes New Highs

Gold’s bullish primary trend, intact since late November 2023, remains in place after record June highs, though momentum is fading. Tom Essaye of Sevens Report says bulls’ key threshold is $3,450, with resistance at $3,444, $3,473, and $3,510, and support at $3,328, $3,284, and $3,181.

Mid-morning Treasury volatility Wednesday briefly pushed gold to session highs before prices settled flat, just under near-term resistance. The $3,325 level is critical support in the short term.

Also, click here to view the full article published in the Moneyshow on August 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.