Did the Yield Curve Actually Invert?
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Why Italian Political Drama Matters to You
- Did the Yield Curve Actually Invert? Only Sort Of
Futures are solidly higher this morning, rising in sympathy with EU shares as Italian political concerns ease while a German Bond auction was unexpectedly weak, both of which are helping bolster stocks.
In Italy, odds of a coalition government being formed are rising materially, reducing fears and general uncertainties surrounding new elections this fall.
Economic data was thin o/n however there was a soft 30-Year Bond auction in Germany this morning which is helping yields rise and fueling general risk-on money flows.
After a choppy start to the trading week, the list of market catalysts picks up today as there is one economic report: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.380M) but investors will be primarily focused on the July FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET).
If the Minutes release is another “hawkish disappointment” like the announcement and Powell’s press conference were in late July, we could see another wave of volatility as investors’ dovish hopes are elevated going into the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this week.
