The March FOMC meeting begins today

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The March FOMC meeting begins today: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Lower Ahead of Fed Meeting

The FOMC’s March meeting kicks off on Tuesday. While a rate cut has been ruled out by traders, they will pay close attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday.

“The March FOMC meeting begins today and barring any material ‘tape bombs’ the markets should fall into a familiar positioning churn ahead of tomorrow’s policy announcement and Powell’s press conference,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on March 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The key is growth, it’s not rate cuts

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The key is growth, it’s not rate cuts: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

S&P 500 Edges Higher. Tech Still Lags.

Stocks have been holding up in recent weeks even though expectations for a rate cut sooner rather than later have dipped.

“The key is growth, it’s not rate cuts,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “As long as growth is stable, the markets can tolerate fewer rate cuts—up to a certain point.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on March 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Easing growth concerns surrounding the world’s second largest economy

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Easing growth concerns surrounding the world’s second largest economy: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Asian Stocks Gain Amid Positive Chinese Data, Bank of Japan Expectations

“Chinese retail sales rose 5.5% [versus expectations of 5.2%] and industrial output jumped 7% [versus expectations of 5%] to start 2024, easing some growth concerns surrounding the world’s second largest economy, however property sector woes persist,” said Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on March 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Economic data this week has not been positive for stocks

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Economic data this week has not been positive for stocks: Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks

Bitcoin holds below $70k on disappointing inflation reads this week

“Economic data this week has not been positive for stocks and while it hasn’t invalidated any of that bullish mantra, it has weakened it,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said. 

Also, click here to view the full Blockwork article published on March 15th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The fundamentals are positive but they still don’t justify current valuations

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The fundamentals are positive but they still don’t justify current valuations: Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg Featured on Yahoo Finance

Stocks Struggle Near Record Before Inflation Data: Markets Wrap

The current set-up reflects the drivers that have powered stocks higher this year: solid growth, prospects for Fed rate cuts and artificial-intelligence enthusiasm, according to Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. “While the fundamentals are positive, they still don’t justify current valuations — making the market vulnerable to a negative surprise.”

Also, click here to view the full Bloomberg article featured on Yahoo Finance published on March 13th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Fed Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview: Hawkish-If vs. Dovish-If
  • 10-Yr Treasury Note Yield Hits 2024 High: Chart

U.S. equity futures are giving back some of yesterday’s tech-led rally as there was a modest “sell the news” reaction to NVDA’s new AI chip (Blackwell) release while central bank decisions overnight favored policy doves.

Overnight, the BOJ delivered a dovish hike and the RBA signaled an end to rate hikes which sent both currencies lower and bolstered the dollar as this week’s Fed decision comes into focus.

Today, there is just one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.449 million) and the Treasury will hold a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Neither should meaningfully move markets ahead of the Fed, but if the housing data is hot or there is weak demand for the Bonds (sending yields higher) we could see a hawkish/risk-off move in markets today.

The March FOMC meeting begins today and barring any material “tape bombs” the markets should fall into a familiar positioning churn ahead of tomorrow’s policy announcement and Powell’s press conference.

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It’s All About Growth

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It’s All About Growth: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Cut Through the Noise: It’s All About Growth
  • Weekly Market Preview – Fed Decision and Forecasts in Focus
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Stagflation Concerns on the Rise

Futures are higher to start the week with mega-cap tech leading gains after Bloomberg reported that AAPL is in talks with GOOGL to license the Gemini AI engine for the iPhone while economic data was largely market-friendly overnight.

Economically, Chinese Retail Sales rose 5.5% vs. (E) 5.2% and Industrial Output jumped 7.0% vs. (E) 5.0% to start 2024, easing some growth concerns surrounding the world’s second largest economy, however property sector woes persist.

In Europe, Core HICP (their CPI equivalent) fell 0.2% to 3.1% in February which was inline with estimates but helped reaffirm the disinflation trend remains in place in early 2024.

Today there is just one economic report to watch: the March Housing Market Index (E: 48), but with the Fed meeting looming, it is unlikely to have a material impact on the market.

Finally, there are 3-Month and 6-Month Treasury Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and while these are typically non-events, they could impact yields with the Fed meeting looming. Any additional hawkish money flows would likely pressure equities ahead of this week’s FOMC decision.

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Why Yesterday’s Data Was Worse Than the Market Reaction

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Why Yesterday’s Data Was Worse Than the Market Reaction: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Yesterday’s Data Was Worse Than the Market Reaction

Futures are seeing a mild bounce despite mixed inflation data and disappointing tech earnings overnight.

The global decline in inflation was again challenged overnight as French HICP was slightly hotter than expected.

ADBE posted solid earnings but underwhelming guidance and the stock is down 12% pre-market, weighing on the tech sector.

Today focus will remain on economic data and if there are more hints of “stagflation” (underwhelming growth and solid price pressures) expect declines from stocks.  Key reports today include, in order of importance: Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -8.0), 1-Yr/5 yr Inflation Expectations (E: 3.0%/2.9%), Industrial Production (E: 0.0%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 77.3).

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The AI craze is a modern gold rush

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The AI craze is a modern gold rush: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Tech Giants Drag Down US Stocks After Torrid Rally: Markets Wrap

“The AI craze is a modern gold rush, and the tech ‘picks and shovels companies’ are seeing earnings explode as companies buy chips and cloud space to fuel the boom,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “But if AI doesn’t result in increased profitability for the rest of the S&P 500 over the coming years, then demand for AI chips will evaporate as will AI-related cloud demand.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on February 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Fundamentals are positive, they still don’t justify current valuations

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The market is vulnerable to a negative surprise: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Struggle Near Record Before Inflation Data: Markets Wrap

The current set-up reflects the drivers that have powered stocks higher this year: solid growth, prospects for Fed rate cuts and artificial-intelligence enthusiasm, according to Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. “While the fundamentals are positive, they still don’t justify current valuations — making the market vulnerable to a negative surprise.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on March 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Swissinfoch logo

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.