“Negative COVID headlines/increased economic lockdowns (especially in NYC and LA County) are starting to offset vaccine optimism…” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
“Negative COVID headlines/increased economic lockdowns (especially in NYC and LA County) are starting to offset…” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. equity futures are trading higher this morning after President Trump instructed his administration to begin working with Biden’s transition team, easing concerns of a drawn-out, contested election.
Economically, German data was mixed with GDP beating estimates but the Ifo Survey came in light causing some mild underperformance in the DAX today.
On the calendar today, there are few economic releases to watch: Case-Shiller House Price Index (E: 0.6%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.7%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 98.0) with the latter having the greatest potential impact on stocks.
There are also several Fed speakers today: Bullard (11:00 a.m. ET), Williams (12:00 p.m. ET) and Clarida (12:45 p.m. ET) but the very dovish tone has been very consistent recently and none of the speakers should materially move markets.
Given the calendar and the expected drop of in attendance/volumes ahead of Thanksgiving, today is expected to be fairly quiet with focus remaining on vaccine developments, stimulus outlook, and COVID-19/lockdown news.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher as the Astra-Zenica vaccine accountment is helping to offset still surging COVID cases and more economic lockdowns.
Astra-Zenica (AZN) announced its COVID-19 vaccine was 70% effective against the disease, but 90% effective when given in two doses (making it essentially on par with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines).
Economically, flash November PMIs were mixed as the EU PMI missed estimates, while the UK PMI beat expectations, but both numbers declined from the October levels, reflecting the lockdown-related headwinds on the economy.
Today the key number is the November Flash Composite PMI (E: 55.6). Markets will want to see stability in that number, but if it’s a bad miss then markets will grow more nervous about a potential “double dip” recession in early 2021, and that will hit markets regardless of the AZN vaccine news.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower on momentum from Wednesday’s COVID/lockdown related late day fade.
Negative COVID headlines/increased economic lockdowns (especially in NYC and LA County) are starting to offset vaccine optimism, and that’s weighing on stocks.
Economic data was sparse overnight, but Australian Unemployment met expectations, as did UK Industrial Trends.
Today, with lockdowns increasing and near term economic anxiety rising, Jobless Claims (E: 710K) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 24.5) will be two important reports, and markets will want to see stability in both to show the economic recovery is not losing momentum. If those two readings are weak, expect more selling.
We also get Existing Home Sales (E: 6.47M) and there are two Fed speakers, Mester (8:30 a.m. ET) and Bowman (12:35 p.m. ET), but none of that should move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading modestly higher this morning as investors continue to digest the latest vaccine news against still elevated coronavirus cases and new lockdowns across parts of the U.S.
Economically, the only report overnight was Eurozone HICP from October which met estimates at 0.2% M/M and did not materially impact markets.
Today, there is just one economic release to watch ahead of the bell: Housing Starts and Permits (E: 1.46M, 1.56M) before the “Fed speak” picks up again after the open with Evans (10:00 a.m. ET), Williams (12:15 p.m. ET), Bullard (1:20 p.m. ET), Kaplan (6:00 p.m. ET) and Bostic (7:00 p.m. ET) all due to speak over the course of the day.
Beyond data and Fed chatter, investors will continue to watch the fluid macro backdrop of the broader markets which includes vaccine developments, coronavirus case counts, lockdown policies, and any clues as to the time frame and size of the next relief package from Congress.
“Because the market is so catalyst driven, there’s going to be volatility in this…” said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
The residual rancor from the presidential election nevertheless has bled into hopes for a fourth stimulus package, according to Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. He added that “the looming Georgia [Senate] runoffs complicate…” Click here to read the full article.
Stocks extended gains Friday afternoon as the three major averages ended the week on a high note. Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Research Founder joined Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre, Seana Smith, and Adam Shapiro to break down market actions on Yahoo Finance Live. Click here to watch the full interview.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading moderately lower this morning as yesterday’s rally to fresh record highs is digested while coronavirus cases continue to rise in the U.S.
There were over 160K new COVID-19 cases reported in the U.S. alone yesterday, the second highest daily increase on record which is tempering some of the vaccine optimism that drove yesterday’s gains.
The economic calendar picks up today as there are several notable economic reports due to be released: Retail Sales (E: 0.4%), Industrial Production (E: 0.9%), and Housing Market Index (E: 85). The market will want to see those data points continue to meet or beat expectations to confirm the recovery remains robust and any disappointment in the numbers could weigh further on stocks.
There is also a slew of Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Powell (1:00 p.m. ET), Bostic (1:00 p.m. ET), Daly (1:25 p.m. ET), Williams (2:00 p.m. ET), Rosengren (2:35 p.m. ET), and Barkin (3:00 p.m. ET). Markets will be most interested in Powell’s remarks but more broadly investors expect the Fed to remain very dovish for the foreseeable future so any signs of the contrary could trigger further profit taking in stocks.