Inflation and Yields in 2021

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Inflation and Yields in 2021

S&P futures are trading at all-time highs this morning amid renewed stimulus hopes and more vaccine optimism.

Secretary Mnuchin presented a $916B coronavirus relief plan late Tuesday that satisfied demands from both sides of the aisle in Congress, upping chances for a yearend deal.

Vaccine news remains positive as the U.K. began administering the Pfizer vaccine yesterday and the FDA may approve the same vaccine in the U.S. as soon as tomorrow.

Looking into today’s session there is one economic report to watch: October JOLTS (E: 6.40M) due out shortly after the bell while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

There is a 10-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could impact the bond market and ultimately equities if the moves are significant enough however investor focus is likely to largely remain on stimulus talks and the next steps in the vaccine roll-out process.

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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Today’s Report is attached as a PDF.

Futures are lower with most overseas markets today amid negative COVID-19 trends, no reported progress on stimulus and fading vaccine optimism.

Distribution of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine is beginning today in the U.K. but reports suggest far fewer doses will be available than initially thought (as little as half) while hospitalizations continue to hit new highs.

On U.S. stimulus, a stop-gap bill will be voted on tomorrow to buy time to reach an aid package as political gridlock remains.

Looking into today’s session, there is one lesser-followed economic report due to be released: Productivity and Costs (E: 4.9%, -8.9%) which will leave investors largely focused on U.S. stimulus negotiations, Brexit talks, and COVID-19 case/hospitalization trends. If there is disappointment on any of those topics, expect some profit taking in risk-assets as the market remains largely priced-to-perfection.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Fintech Zoom on December 2, 2020

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“We proceed to suppose the rotation to value must be centered on making a extra balanced value/development portfolio, and never abandoning…,” stated Tom Essaye, editor of The Sevens Report investing publication, in a report Tuesday. Click here to read the full report.

How Much Is Left in the Rally?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Much Is Left in the Rally?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can Stimulus Get Done?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat-sheet:  Jobless Claims and Inflation

Futures are modestly lower as markets digest last week’s rally following more lockdown announcements.

California enacted a de-facto state-wide shutdown in response to rising coronavirus cases, and that is the main headwind on futures this morning.

Regarding stimulus, optimism continued to grow that a deal around $1 Trillion can be struck in the next few weeks, although nothing definitive occurred over the weekend.

Economic data was sparse as German Industrial Production beat estimates and rose 3.2% vs. (E) 0.7%.

Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speakers, so focus will remain on stimulus chatter.  Senate Majority Leader McConnell remains the wildcard as he hasn’t yet voiced support for the current proposed bill, but if he does, that will significantly increase the chances it gets done before year-end (and that would cause another short term pop in stocks).

Tom Essaye Quoted in Stock Investor on December 2, 2020

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It is gains of that sort that prompt investor questions about what Bitcoin is, how it works and how to buy it — questions of the sort I fielded from attendees of the Post-Election Investor Summit. Today, I am going to answer some of the most common Bitcoin-related investor questions for you. And to do just that, I have enlisted the help of my friend and macro-analyst extraordinaire, Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, whose recent work on cryptocurrencies has added to my knowledge of this rather complex subject. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in ETF Trends on December 2, 2020q

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Then value stocks started to look alive in the later part of 2020. Using Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) for value and Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) for growth, Tom Essaye, editor of The Sevens Report newsletter notes from Aug. 31 to Nov. 30, value outperformed growth, 6.4% to 2.1%. But…Click here to read the full article.

Co-Editor of Sevens Report Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on December 2, 2020

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“Gold finally found its footing as a steep drop in the dollar and firming inflation outlook…,” resulting in a rally on Tuesday, said analysts in the latest newsletter for Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Fox40 on December 1, 2020

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“We continue to think the rotation to value should be focused on creating a more balanced value/growth portfolio, and not…” said Tom Essaye, editor of The Sevens Report investing newsletter, in a report Tuesday. Click here to read the full article.

Stimulus Update and Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Stimulus Update (A Deal by Next Friday?)
  • Jobs Report Preview:  What Markets Need a “Just Right” Number
  • OPEC+ Update and Oil Outlook

Futures are marginally higher ahead of the jobs report on more positive stimulus commentary overnight.

More Dems and Republicans voiced support for the $900-billion-ish stimulus bill overnight, and some, or all, of the bill could be passed by next Friday (the budget deadline).

Economic data was again solid overnight as German Manufacturers’ Orders beat estimates (2.9% vs. (E) 1.5%).

Today focus will be on any more stimulus headlines and the Employment Situation report.

Expectations for the jobs report are: Job Adds: 500K and U.E. Rate:  6.8%.  Anything above 250kish jobs adds should be “fine” for the market, especially given the stimulus momentum and it’d likely take a negative number to hit stocks.

Finally, there are several Fed speakers today including: Williams (8:05 a.m. ET), Evans (9:00 a.m. ET) and Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), but none of them should materially move markets.

Market Multiple Table (Updated)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table:  December Update
  • EIA and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are little changed as overnight markets digested the week’s rally amidst better than expected economic data and more stimulus chatter.

Economic data was solid overnight as Chinese (57.8 vs. (E) 56.8), EU (41.7 vs. (E) 41.3) and British (47.6 vs. (E) 45.8) service sector PMIs all best estimates.

On stimulus, Democrat leader Pelosi and Schumer said the current $990 bln stimulus bill was a good “starting point.”

Today focus will be on economic data, especially Jobless Claims (E: 770K) because if they rise close to or above 800k, that will be more evidence the recovery is losing momentum.  We also get the ISM Services Index (E: 56.1).  Finally, stimulus chatter continues to heat up, and markets will embrace any further hints at negotiations (although a near-term deal still is very unlikely).