A “Santa Rally” Chart for Clients

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Interesting Chart to Show Clients: Santa Tends to Arrive in the Second Half of December
  • Economic Data Takeaways: November BLS, October Retail Sales, & December Flash PMIs

Futures are higher as cooler-than-anticipated inflation data in Europe is offsetting an uptick in geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West as leaders jawbone about ceasefire negotiation details.

Economically, Eurozone CPI cooled to 2.1% vs. (E) 2.4% while U.K. CPI fell to 3.2% vs. (E) 3.4%, both of which supported dovish money flows overnight.

Looking into today’s session, we will get another look at the health of the U.S. consumer ahead of the bell with the November Retail Sales report due to be released (E: 0.2%) while data on Business Inventories (E: 0.2%) will also be reported. The former will be the key economic focus and investors will be looking for a healthy, “Goldilocks” print to support a relief rally.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and the stronger the demand measures are in each, the better for stocks and bonds today.

There are also three notable Fed speakers today: Waller (8:30 a.m. ET), Williams (9:05 a.m. ET), and Bostic (12:30 p.m. ET), and the more dovish their collective tone is, the better for risk assets.

Finally, there are some late season earnings still trickling in with quarterly reports due from JBL ($2.27), GIS ($1.02), TTC ($0.86), and MU ($3.67) today. Obviously, weak earnings could fuel a further decline in equities today while strong results would be well received.

 

Sevens Report: Gold Holds Bullish Bias After Less-Hawkish Fed

/in , /by

Tom Essaye says the Fed decision supports year-end upside, but key levels matter.

Gold: After Post-Fed Boost, Keep These Key Levels in Mind

While not a bullish gamechanger, the net impact of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision will be to support a year-end rally and the reason is clear: The Fed wasn’t as-hawkish-as-feared. On the charts, gold remains rangebound between support at $4,200 per ounce and resistance at $4,400, observes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Commodities were mixed for most of the day Wednesday as traders awaited the conclusion of the Fed meeting. However, the less-hawkish cut the FOMC delivered sparked risk-on money flows in afternoon trade that saw economically sensitive industrial metals and energy futures outperform. Gold turned positive but lagged on the session.

Still, it lurched higher in after-hours trade to up 0.48% in part because the Fed announced a 30-day bond buying spree totaling $40 billion. Risks are still skewed to the upside in the direction of the dominant, primary uptrend that’s been in place all year.

Technical View: Gold market volatility has picked up in Q4 with risks of intermittent, deeper pullbacks elevated. However, the long-term trend remains bullish.

  • Primary Trend: Bullish (since the week of Nov. 27, 2023)
  • Key Resistance Levels: $4,290…$4,344…and $4,398
  • Key Support Levels: $4,134…$4,045…and $3,941.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on December 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Do Markets Like Warsh Over Hassett?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Do Markets Like Warsh Over Hassett?
  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are trading lower with global equities this morning thanks to soft economic data out of Europe overnight with focus shifting to the November BLS jobs report today.

Economically, the EU Flash Composite PMI fell to 51.9 vs. (E) 52.8 in December from 52.8 in November while the U.K. Unemployment Rate rose to a 4+ year high of 5.1%; both data points raised concerns about the health of the global economy.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the November BLS Employment Situation Report (E: 40K Job-Adds, 4.5% Unemployment Rate, 3.6% Wage Growth) and Retail Sales (E: 0.2%) due to be released ahead of the bell, both of which have the potential to move markets.

Additionally, data on Business Inventories (E: 0.2%), Housing Starts (E: 1.325M), the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.0) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.9) for December will also be released and could move markets.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today and earnings season is slowing down materially with just one quarterly report due today: LEN ($2.23) which will leave investors primarily focused on the key economic data due out early in the day.

 

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter and Technicals

We’ve recently been contacted by advisor subscribers who want to use the remainder of their 2025 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products.

If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report research offering), please email: info@sevensreport.com.

 

Updated Market Outlook Post Fed Decision & AI Disappointment (Still Bullish?)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook Post Fed Decision & AI Disappointment (Still Bullish?)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Data Stay Goldilocks (And Further Fuel RSP over SPY?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Report Tomorrow is the Key Event

Futures are solidly higher on rising hopes that Kevin Warsh, not Kevin Hassett, would be the next Fed Chair.

President Trump said that Fed Governor Warsh had moved to the top of his Fed Chir list and that’s positive as markets view Warsh as more independent then Hassett.

Economically, Chinese data disappointed as retail sales, industrial production and Fixed Asset Investment missed estimates.

Today focus will be on economic data via the first data point for December, Empire Manufacturing (10.6).  This is a volatile metric but as long as it’s mostly stable (so no big drop) it shouldn’t weigh on markets.

We also get the Housing Market Index (E: 38) and have two Fed speakers: Miran (9:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (10:30 a.m. ET).  Of the two, Williams is the most important and if he’s dovish, it should help support markets.

 

Post Fed Money Flows Highlight 2026 Positioning Risk

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Post Fed Money Flows Highlight 2026 Positioning Risk

Futures are mixed as tech stocks drop on more underwhelming earnings (AVGO) while the rest of the market trades higher.

Broadcom (AVGO) beat on earnings and revenue but concerns about the sustainability of the performance weighed on the stock and it’s down –6% pre-market.

Economic data slightly underwhelmed as UK GDP and Industrial Production both slightly missed estimates.

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are three Fed speakers: Paulson (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (8:30 a.m. ET and Goolsbee (10:35 a.m. ET).  Of the three, Goolsbee is the most important because he dissented on Wednesday and voted for no rate cut, so hearing his reasoning will be notable for markets (and if he’s more hawkish than expected it could be a mild headwind on stocks).

 

Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey Says Venezuela Tanker Seizure Won’t Spike Oil Prices

/in , /by

Tyler Richey sees geopolitical risk rising, but limited impact unless exports are disrupted.

U.S. seizes oil tanker off Venezuela. Why one analyst says it’s ‘a smart move.’

Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, said in an email Wednesday that disruptions to Venezuelan oil “would add another factor to the already present geopolitical fear” that has rattled the oil futures market for more than a year.

“The wild card to watch is whether or not Guyana’s oil production growth is impacted due to disputes over offshore oil resources” with Venezuela, Richey said. However, “barring a material impact on Venezuelan oil exports or Guyana oil production growth expectations, the price impact on oil should be limited.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on December 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets (Bullish Short-Term but Not Long Term)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets (Bullish Short-Term but Not Long Term)

Futures are moderately lower as disappointing ORCL earnings reversed Wednesday’s post Fed rally.

ORCL posted underwhelming quarterly results (ORCL down –11% pre-market) and did little to reduce fiscal concerns, further stoking AI skepticism and weighing on tech broadly.

Economically, the only notable report overnight was Italian Unemployment which met expectations (6.1%).

Today focus will be on economic data via Initial Jobless Claims (E: 220k) and an in-line number will be generally positive for markets as it implies solid growth.  Beyond economic data, important earnings loom after the close including, in order of importance:  AVGO ($1.49), LULU ($2.22), COST ($4.26) and RH ($2.13).  Solid AVGO earnings to help offset ORCL disappointment would help the market finish the week strong.

 

Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update
  • October JOLTS Takeaways

Futures are slightly lower while global stocks are mixed after a quiet night of news as today’s Fed decision comes into focus.

Economically, Chinese CPI met estimates of +0.7% Y/Y in November while PPI fell -2.2% vs. (E) -2.0% Y/Y.

Today, there is one economic report: Q3 Employment Cost Index (E: 0.9% m/m, 3.7% y/y) and one Treasury auction for 4-Month Bills (11:30 a.m. ET).

However, the main market focus will be the Fed today with the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) both scheduled for the mid-afternoon.

Investors will be eyeing the Fed with hopes of a not-too-hawkish-cut, and if delivered, the S&P 500 could make a run at all-time highs while anything that disappoints the doves could weigh heavily on stocks in afternoon trade.

Outside the Fed, earnings season continues with CHWY ($0.12), ORCL ($1.29), ADBE ($4.39), and PL ($-0.07) reporting Q3 results. Investors will be keenly focused on the two big tech names specifically (ORCL and ADBE) for fresh insight on AI-industry guidance, and the stronger the reports the better for equity markets into year-end.

 

FOMC Preview

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

Equity futures are modestly higher thanks to a steadying bond market and better than feared economic data as trader-focus shifts to the December Fed meeting which begins today (decision/press-conference tomorrow).

Looking ahead to today’s session, there was one economic report early this morning, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which unexpectedly rose from 98.2 to 99.0 vs. (E) 98.0, and that is helping ease lingering worries about the current health of the economy.

Beyond the NFIB, we will receive one more report today: JOLTS (E: 7.2 million) shortly after the open and with uncertainty surrounding the future path of Fed policy, a surprise on the headline or details could move markets ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement.

There are no Fed speakers as the December meeting gets underway today, however the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and any reaction in bonds is likely to move equity markets.

Finally, there are a handful of earnings releases today including: AZO ($32.24), CPB ($0.73), ASO ($1.00), and CASY ($4.92) and investors will be looking for continued strength, particularly from any tech-related companies.\

 

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter and Technicals

We’ve recently been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2025 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free), or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products.

If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report research offering), please email: info@sevensreport.com.

 

Hassett Fed Talk Adds Fuel to Dovish Market Expectations

/in , /by

Sevens Report says stocks are rising on Fed-cut hopes — but warns bond markets see real risks.

Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair isn’t automatically bullish

Stocks have extended a two-week rally as expectations for a December Fed rate cut have surged from under 50% to nearly 100%. According to the Sevens Report, that shift began with dovish commentary from New York Fed President John Williams and a run of softer labor and inflation data.

But the firm highlighted a second catalyst behind the market’s bullish rate bets: President Trump’s near-confirmation that he intends to nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chair. Among the finalists, Hassett is viewed as the most dovish, leading investors to anticipate a more accommodative policy stance once he takes over in mid-2026.

Still, Sevens cautioned that a highly dovish chair is not an automatic positive. While stocks cheered the development, bond markets reacted in the opposite direction. The 10-year yield rose 10 basis points last week, reflecting concerns that an overly soft approach could revive inflation — echoing the stop-and-go policy mistakes of the 1970s under Arthur Burns.

Sevens emphasized that Hassett has not shown any inclination to jeopardize Fed independence, but warned that even the perception of political pressure could push Treasury markets lower and yields higher. The firm noted that maintaining the Fed’s independence is “far more important for supporting equities” than whether end-2026 policy rates land at 3.625% or 2.875%.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on December 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.