Why Markets Continue to Ignore Macro Risks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Markets Continue to Ignore Macro Risks
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Focus Turns to Earnings (Including Major Tech Names)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Flash PMIs Thursday is the Big Report This Week

Futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum following a generally quiet weekend of news.

There were no notable trade headlines over the weekend and markets are still awaiting any progress on trade deals with the EU, India and Japan.

Economically, there were no notable international reports overnight.

Today there is only one economic report, Leading Indicators (E: -0.2%), and it shouldn’t move markets.

Instead, focus today and this week will be on earnings and specifically the commentary from CEOs on the consumer and economy.  Some reports we’re watching today include: NXPI ($2.29), VZ ($1.18), DPZ ($3.93), CLF ($-0.67), CCK ($1.86).

 

S&P 500 Posts Weekly Gain as Markets Eye Trade, Earnings

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Sevens Report highlights focus on Japan deal and earnings outlook

US Stocks End Little Changed With S&P 500 Notching Weekly Gain

MARKET STAYS FLAT — BUT GAINS HOLD

U.S. stocks ended little changed Friday, with the S&P 500 securing a weekly gain as traders look ahead to trade negotiations and earnings.

Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report notes:

“Focus will stay on trade and earnings. The Japan deal will raise hopes a similar deal with the EU can be stuck before next Friday.”

Despite geopolitical noise and inflation concerns earlier in the week, markets have stayed resilient — for now.

Next catalysts: corporate earnings season and potential EU trade developments.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on July 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

S&P 500 Logs Weekly Gain as Resilient Spending Supports Rally

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Sevens Report points to tariffs and solid consumer demand

A Steady Rise in U.S. Stocks Leads to the S&P 500 Weekly Gains

U.S. stocks ticked higher Friday, helping the S&P 500 post another weekly gain as investors digested earnings, Fed commentary, and tariff effects.

Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report noted:

“Some weakness is appearing in import-sensitive industries, possibly tied to tariffs, but overall consumer spending remains solid.”

That consumer strength is fueling the soft-landing narrative, keeping U.S. equities near all-time highs in 2025.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Tradealgo.com on July 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Wednesday’s Bond Volatility Is Important (Trump vs. Powell)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Wednesday’s Bond Volatility Is Important (Trump vs. Powell)

Futures are slightly higher following more dovish commentary from a Fed member and generally “fine” earnings.

Fed Governor Waller called for a 25-bps cut at the July FOMC meeting in a speech overnight, although markets assume he’s now jockeying to be the next Fed Chair and a rate cut this month remains very unlikely.

Today the economic calendar is mostly quiet (there are only two reports, Housing Starts (1.300M) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 60.7) and neither should move markets) but there are some notable earnings to watch including, in order of importance:  AXP ($3.86), SCHW ($1.09), MMM ($2.01), SLB ($0.73), ALLY ($0.78), TFC ($0.92).  In particular, if customer spending and management commentary from AXP is positive, that will further underscore that the consumer remains resilient in this uncertain environment.

 

Sevens Report Special Report: Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold

The Sevens Report Special Report: Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold has been met with extremely positive feedback as thought-provoking research.

As a reminder, this report is free for all Sevens Report subscribers and can be accessed on the “My Reports” section of www.sevensreport.com.   

Some subscribers have expressed interest in sharing this with clients, both as a Sevens Report branded publication and as a “White Labeled” version, and that option is available for purchase for a discounted price. 

To learn more about the white labeled version of the Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold Special Report, please click this link.   

3 Market Cycles in 8 Months: How to Trade What’s Coming Next

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Sevens Report breaks down past trends to prepare investors for the future

3 markets in eight months — understanding the playbook for what’s next

3 PHASES. 8 MONTHS. 1 STRATEGY TO STAY AHEAD.

According to Sevens Report, the past eight months saw U.S. markets shift through three clear phases — each tied to macroeconomic policy and sentiment:

  1. Trumponomics Euphoria (Nov–Jan):
    Fueled by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and GOP control.

    • S&P 500 +5.4%

    • Cyclicals like financials and consumer discretionary outperformed.

  2. Recession Paranoia (Feb–Apr):
    Escalating tariff threats and erratic policy execution spooked investors.

    • S&P 500 −7.86%

    • Defensives like utilities and staples led.

  3. Ignoring Macro, Chasing Growth (May–Present):
    Trade concerns eased, and investor focus shifted to AI-led growth.

    • Rally led by NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet

    • AI tech and intrinsic-growth names dominate.

“Understanding what defined them and the strategies that outperformed will help us 1) Identify the next type of market and 2) Outperform.”

What’s next depends on trade clarity and growth outlook:

  • Improved clarity = return of Trumponomics

  • Worsening outlook = back to Recession Paranoia

  • Lingering uncertainty = AI tech continues to lead

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on July 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

June CPI Shows Early Tariff-Driven Inflation Signs

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Sevens Report says tariff pressures may be emerging in inflation data

Tariff Impact Starts to Show in June CPI Report

TARIFFS START TO BITE?

June’s CPI data came in mostly as expected — but Sevens Report flagged one critical detail: tariff price pressures may already be appearing.

  • Headline CPI: +2.7% YoY (vs. 2.6% est.)
    Driven by higher energy costs from Middle East tensions.

  • Core CPI: +2.9% YoY (in line with forecast)
    But up from May, suggesting an uptick that caught investors’ attention.

“There was enough in this report to keep alive concerns that tariffs will stoke inflation.” — Sevens Report

While the report doesn’t eliminate hopes for a Fed cut later this year, September is now far less likely.

Markets were flat at first — but as investors digested the data, stocks began to slip.

Bottom line: This CPI report was “no worse than feared,” but it’s the first real sign that Trump’s tariff policies are starting to ripple through prices — and the next wave of duties is just weeks away.

Also, click here to view the full article published in agweb.com on July 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Trump vs. Powell Means for Markets (Three Scenarios)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Trump vs. Powell Tensions Mean for Markets
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Market Update

Futures are slightly higher after a mostly quiet newswires night of news as tech shares catch a bid on the back of solid earnings and optimistic guidance from global chip-making giant TSMC overnight.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 2.0% y/y on the headline while the core figure edged up to 2.3%, also as expected.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with Jobless Claims (E: 233K), Retail Sales (E: 0.1%), the Philly Fed Surve (E: -0.4), Import and Export Prices (E: 0.2% m/m, -0.1% m/m), and the latest Housing Market Index (E: 33) all due to be released.

There are also multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Kugler (10:00 a.m. ET), Daly (12:45 p.m. ET), and Cook (1:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues with TSM ($2.37), GE ($1.43), PEP ($2.03), USB ($1.07), ABT ($1.25), NFLX ($7.07), and IBKR ($0.45) all scheduled to release quarterly reports today.

Bottom line, traders will want to see economic data that pushes back on the ideas of stagflation or a hard-landing (two economic worries of late) and hear a more dovish tone from Fed speakers amid more positive earnings news in order for stocks to extend the recent rally to new records.

A New Type of Research Offering

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A New Type of Research from Sevens Report – Introducing “Special Reports”
  • Economic Takeaways – CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Tamp Down Dovish Policy Hopes
  • Why September Rate Cut Odds Are Receding (Slightly)

Futures are little changed while there is a tentative bid in the bond market as investors continue to digest the June CPI release and look ahead to more earnings today.

Economically, U.K. CPI rose +0.2% to 3.6% y/y vs. (E) 3.4% which is bolstering the pound and weighing modestly on the dollar index this morning as well as capping a rebound in bonds.

Looking into today’s session, the second important inflation print of the week is due to be released before the bell with PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y), and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.7% y/y) scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET while Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET.

A busy week of Fed speak also continues with multiple officials delivering remarks today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (9:15 a.m. ET), and Barr (10:00 a.m. ET).

The market will be looking for any signs of “cooler” inflation or modest slowing in growth to rekindle September rate cut hopes which would offer fresh support for the equity market rally.

Finally, earnings season continues with multiple notable companies releasing quarter results today including ASML ($5.94), BAC ($0.86), GS ($9.43), MS ($1.93), JNJ ($2.66), PGR ($4.30), UAL ($3.86), and KMI ($0.28).

Stock Vigilantes May Push Back If Trump Escalates Tariffs Says Tom Essaye

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Sevens Report warns equity markets won’t tolerate unchecked trade risks

‘Stock vigilantes’ could rebel against Trump’s tariffs: Sevens Report

WALL STREET MAY SOON SEND A MESSAGE IF TARIFF THREATS TURN TO ACTION

So far, investors have largely shrugged off Trump’s tariff rhetoric, assuming he won’t follow through on aggressive trade threats.

But according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, that complacency may soon fade if tariffs actually hit.

“It’s possible that stock vigilantes could appear… If Trump views the new highs in stocks as a ‘green light’ to escalate the trade war, it may well have to decline to remind the administration…”

Essaye argues that the U.S. economy can absorb around 10% aggregate tariffs, but anything more could threaten a return to stagflation-like conditions.

The term “stock vigilantes” borrows from “bond vigilantes”—investors who sell U.S. debt in protest of fiscal mismanagement. This time, equities could become the market’s way of saying “enough.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 14th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

Stock futures rallied to fresh all-time highs overnight thanks to news the U.S. government will ease restrictions on chip sales to China, specifically some of NVDA’s more powerful AI-chips as CPI data and big bank earnings loom.

There are a slew of potential market catalysts this morning starting with inflation data as CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) data for June will be released ahead of the bell along with one of the first July economic reports, the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-10.0).

Investors will be looking for data that pushes back on stagflation or hard landing scenarios to keep the stock rally going.

Additionally, there are multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak including Bowman (9:15 a.m. ET), Barr (12:45 p.m. ET), Barkin 1:00 p.m. ET), and Collins (2:45 p.m. ET). The market will be looking for positive economic commentary and/or hints of a potential rate cut this month.

Finally, today also marks the unofficial start to Q2 earnings season with several big banks and other noteworthy U.S. companies reporting results including: JPM ($4.51), C ($1.61), BLK ($10.78), WFC ($1.41), BK ($1.74), STT ($2.36), JBHT ($1.34). The stronger the corporate results, the better as strong earnings growth is priced in for the year ahead with equities trading at current levels.