Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on May 20, 2019
Tom Essaye quoted in Barron’s on May 20, 2019. “Several U.S. tech firms have stopped conducting business with Huawei, per the…” Click here to read the full article.
Trade Update: Good/Bad/Ugly
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Trade Update: Good/Bad/Ugly
Futures are rebounding with EU markets from yesterday’s sharp, tech-led losses thanks to some encouraging Huawei news o/n and a benign speech by Powell late Monday.
The U.S. announced some temporary exemptions will be issued for companies exporting to Huawei (mainly for existing products) which is helping ease some of yesterday’s elevated trade angst.
Overseas, there were no notable economic reports but the RBA cited risks to global growth in their most recent meeting minutes release, which pressured the aussie.
Looking into today’s U.S. session, focus will largely remain on the trade war and specifically any further information on the Huawei exemptions for U.S. exporters.
There are a few other potential catalysts however, including one economic report: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.37M) and a few Fed speakers: Bostic (7:50 a.m. ET), Evans (10:45 a.m. ET), and Rosengren (12:00 p.m. ET) but none of these are expected to materially move markets amid the most recent trade war developments.
Tyler Richey Quoted in Bloomberg on May 20, 2019
Tyler Richey was quoted in Bloomberg on May 20, 2019. “You’ve got some conflicting influences on the market and the price action today is pretty indicative of that…” Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on May 17, 2019
Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC on May 17, 2019. “Through any lens, this is a broadside against the Chinese government, which is generally considered to be the beneficial…” Click here to read the full article.
Updated Market Outlook
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Updated Market Outlook (Post U.S./China Trade Breakdown)
- Weekly Market Preview
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet
Futures are modestly lower following an uneventful weekend as investors digest Friday’s negative trade headline (that U.S./China trade discussions have been suspended).
On trade, there was no new news over the weekend, but several U.S. tech firms have stopped conducting business with Huawei, per the Commerce Department decision, and that’s just further escalating the U.S./China trade conflict.
Economically, there were no market moving reports (Japanese GDP was stronger than estimates but the details weren’t great).
There are no economic reports today but there are multiple Fed speakers, most important of which is Powell (7:00 p.m. ET), although he’s not expected to make extensive comments on policy. Other Fed speakers today include: Bostic (8:50 a.m. ET), Harker (9:30 a.m. ET), Williams & Clarida (1:00 p.m. ET).
Given the lack of data and important Fed speak, trade headlines should drive markets today and any formal retaliation by China for the Huawei decision will make the trade situation worse, and likely pressure stocks.
Tom Essaye Quoted in Markets Insider on May 15, 2019
Tom Essaye was quoted in Markets Insider on May 15, 2019. The red metal has been the “single-best leading indicator for stocks over the past 18 months,” and is flashing a warning sign for…” Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on May 13, 2019
Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC on May 13, 2019. “Volatility surged to multi-month highs last week as US-China trade war drama unexpectedly escalated…” Click here to read the full article.
Another Update From Dr. Copper (It’s Been Right)
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Another Update From Dr. Copper (It’s Been Right)
Futures are modestly weaker following disappointing Chinese economic data. Nothing new happened over night with U.S./China trade.
Chinese Retail Sales (7.2% vs. (E) 8.6%), Fixed Asset Investment (6.1% vs. (E) 6.4%) and Industrial Production (5.4% vs. (E) 6.3%) all missed estimates, implying the Chinese economic recovery might not be as solid as thought.
Today focus will shift back to economic data. The Chinese data was underwhelming and that will put more pressure on today’s U.S. data to reassure markets about growth.
The key reports today (in order of importance) are: Retail Sales (E: 0.2%), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (E: 9.0), Industrial Production (E: 0.0%), Housing Market Index (E: 64). Again, “bad” numbers from these reports that makes the Fed more dovish may cause a temporary bounce in stocks, but that’s not good for stocks in the medium/longer term.
Finally, there are two Fed Speakers, Quarles (9:30 a.m. ET) and Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET) but neither should move markets.
Sectors Insulated from the Trade War
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Context for U.S.-China Trade: Identifying Sectors Insulated from Trade Risks
U.S. stock futures are bouncing with EU shares this morning as the outlook on trade improved modestly overnight.
China’s retaliatory tariff deadline of June 1st and Trump’s indecision on the next round of tariffs were received as incremental positives, helping risk assets rise this morning.
The German ZEW Survey, EU Industrial Production, and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index did not offer any surprises and are largely being shrugged off by investors so far this morning.
Trade is obviously going to continue to dominate the headlines amid the recent resurgence of volatility but there is one economic report to watch today: Import & Export Prices (E: 0.7%, 0.6%) and one Fed speaker: George (12:45 p.m. ET).
Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on May 13, 2019
Tom Essaye interviewed with Yahoo Finance. A very timely chat on tariffs, fear within the market, what to expect with this market volatility and more…Watch the full interview here.
