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Tariff Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tariff Preview:  Good, Bad & Ugly

Futures are modestly lower following a night of mixed economic data and a somewhat negative trade headline.

The WSJ published a trade article that implied the chances of a near term U.S./China deal were declining, but also said a decision on the 200 bln in new tariffs was weeks away.

Economic data was mixed as German Industrial Production missed estimates (-1.1% vs. (E) 0.3%) while Japanese Household Spending beat (0.1% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Today focus will be on the jobs report, and the expectations are: Jobs (E: 195K), Unemployment (E: 3.8%) and Wages (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.8% y/y).  As has been the case for the last few jobs report, as long as we don’t have “3’s” across the board (300k job adds, 3% unemployment and 3.0% yoy wage gains) this report shouldn’t be too much of a headwind on stocks.

Finally, in addition to the jobs report we also have two Fed speakers, Rosengren (8:30 a.m. ET) and Mester (9:00 a.m. ET), but neither should move markets.

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