Still “a simmering” geopolitical fear bid in the global oil market

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Still “a simmering” geopolitical fear bid in the global oil market: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices remain at more than 3-week low as Iranian crude supply concerns ease

Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report Research, said there is still “a simmering” geopolitical fear bid in the global oil market which is keeping futures above the $80-a-barrel level, and that fear bid will remain in the market until there is some “more formal” ceasefire agreed upon in the Middle East.

Outside geopolitics, higher-for-longer policy rates are a risk to demand down the road, but for now most economic data remains robust and supports the case for futures to sustain prices above $80 in the near term, Essaye said in a Tuesday client note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on April 23rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

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Tom Essaye Interviewed on Schwab Network

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American Express (AXP) rises after beating earnings: Tom Essaye Interviewed on Schwab Network

AXP Rises After Earnings: Best Positioned Credit Card Stocks

American Express (AXP) rises after beating earnings. The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye and Morningstar’s Michael Miller discuss this as American Express’ 1Q revenue grew 11% year-over-year. They talk about the road ahead for American Express. They then go over the best positioned credit card stocks. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Also, click here to view the full interview published on April 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Bull Market Warning From Dow Theory

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Bull Market Warning From Dow Theory: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Dow Theory Update: Transports Rolling Over (Charts Included)
  • Flash PMI Takeaways – Signs of Weakness
  • Has Gold Bottomed Yet (Probably Not)

Futures are higher on well-received guidance from “Mag-7” member TSLA (+11% pre-market) and U.S. semiconductor giant TXN (+7% pre-market) while economic data in Europe topped estimates overnight.

Economically, Australian CPI was “warm” at 1.0% vs. (E) 0.8% in Q1 which is supporting a modest rise in the aussie dollar while the German Ifo Survey’s Business Expectations Index firmed to 89.9 vs. (E) 88.9 helping bolster European shares.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Durable Goods Orders (E: 2.3%) and markets will be looking for a “goldilocks,” as-expected number as either a “hot” print would initiate a hawkish reaction while a “cold” print would rekindle growth concerns.

There are no Fed speakers today, but the Treasury will hold a 5-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which once again could move yields. A weak auction would send yields towards 5% which is another threat to this week’s robust relief rally.

Earnings season also continues to ramp up with BA (-$1.43), T ($0.53), and GD ($2.89) reporting results ahead of the open while META ($4.32), IBM ($1.59), F ($0.42), and CMG ($11.63) will report after the close. META will be the most important to watch as the results could either bolster this strong week-to-date rally that’s been led by tech, or de-rail it and send stocks back towards the Q2 lows.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How Nervous Are Investors Right Now?

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How Nervous Are Investors Right Now? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update – How Nervous Are Investors Right Now?
  • A Timely Chart: NVDA Falls to Target From Last Thursday’s Report

U.S. equity futures are tracking global markets higher after European economic data came in better than expected and traders optimistically look ahead to big-tech earnings.

The EU’s April PMI Composite Flash rose 1.1 points to 51.4 vs. (E) 50.8 thanks to a solid 52.9 Services sub-index print. The strong data is helping ease worries of stagflation and a weakening consumer which have been simmering so far in 2024.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the PMI Composite Flash (E:51.9) release and New Home Sales (E: 670K) report due out this morning.

There are no Fed speakers today but the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could offer insight into any changes in Fed policy expectations (the risk to stocks is an auction with weak demand that sends the 2-Yr yield to-or-through 5%).

Earnings season also continues to pick up today with UPS ($1.33), GM ($2.06), LMT ($5.80), GE ($0.67), PEP ($1.52), and SHW ($2.25) reporting before the bell while TSLA ($0.49) and V ($2.43) will release results after the close.

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It’s very early in the quarter, but it’s not off to a great start

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It’s very early in the quarter, but it’s not off to a great start: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

S&P 500 Slides for Sixth Straight Day. Tech Stocks Are Struggling.

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that traders that have been worried about soaring tech valuations took the first wave of earnings reports as an opportunity to sell.

“It’s very early in the quarter, but it’s not off to a great start,” Essaye says. “And I think that it’s giving people an excuse to lighten up.”

Super Micro Computer shares also sank after investors wondered why the firm didn’t preannounce March quarter results as it has tended to do ahead of strong reports.

As for the broader market, Essaye thinks the S&P 500 was due for a pullback, and could fall further before valuations start looking attractive.

“The problem now is that news isn’t necessarily turning really bad, it’s forcing the market to realize that they were too aggressive in their positive expectations,” Essaye says. “And this is all being unwound.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

As you see people reducing tech exposure, you’re getting the whole gamut being sold

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As you see people reducing tech exposure, you’re getting the whole gamut being sold: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Why the Dow and Nasdaq Are Going in Different Directions

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that earnings this week in the tech space haven’t been good. Netflix was the latest nail in the coffin ahead of major big tech players next week.

“As you see people reducing tech exposure, you’re getting the whole gamut being sold,” Essaye says. “And we know that’s really what’s happening, because the Dow is up on the day. And the S&P 500, if you were to pull tech out, wouldn’t be doing that bad.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Fundamental influences are “conflicted” right now

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Fundamental influences are “conflicted” right now: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Global oil prices fall for fourth straight session, with demand and Middle East risks in focus

Fundamental influences are “conflicted” right now, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

“Higher-for-longer central bank policy expectations, a strengthening dollar, and subsequent worries about the sustainability of economic growth in a high-rate/strong-dollar environment, are acting as headwinds on global oil prices,” he said, while “simmering geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran is simultaneously keeping a fear-bid in the market.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on April 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations

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Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil prices end mixed as traders weigh demand prospects, Middle East risks

“Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations, a strengthening dollar, and subsequent worries about the sustainability of economic growth in a high-rate/strong-dollar environment, are acting as headwinds on global oil prices,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. He added that the “simmering geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran is simultaneously keeping a fear-bid in the market.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on April 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

A lot of that news has been digested by markets during this pullback

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A lot of that news has been digested by markets during this pullback: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Dow Closes Flat Ahead of CPI Report

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that the move seemed to be a bounce after a string of down days, since none of the data out Thursday were particularly upbeat. He points to a hot Philly Fed index, mixed earnings, and hawkish comments from New York Fed President John Williams.

“But, a lot of that news has been digested by markets during this pullback and because it’s nothing new, we’re seeing a bit of a relief rally,” Essaye says. “However, none of today’s headlines solve any of the problems the market has been dealing with so I don’t think this is a bounce that will last, barring a positive surprise on inflation, geo-politics or earnings.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

“It’s Pretty Much Economics 101”

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It’s pretty much Economics 101: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Bitcoin Halving: Here’s Why Some Expect Prices To Soar

Bitcoin rose 8,069% in the 12 months after the 2012 halving, 284% following the 2016 halving and 559% after the 2020 halving.“It’s pretty much Economics 101” that bitcoin prices go up after halving, according to Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye, who explained that so long as demand doesn’t decrease and new supply goes down, the “only thing left to move is price.”

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on April 17th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.