Sevens Report: AI Trade to Split as Winners and Losers Emerge

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Tom Essaye tells Yahoo Finance the next phase of the AI trade will show sharp performance separation within the Mag 7, with Alphabet his top pick.

Breaking out the ‘selective scalpel’: Wall Street sees AI stock trade as intact

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye told Yahoo Finance he expects to see winners and losers within the group heading into next year.

“I think we’re going to see some pretty massive bifurcation,” Essaye said.” The next evolution of this trade, where there are going to be winners and losers within the Mag 7.”

He said that his favorite stock is Alphabet because of the growth prospects for Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence product.

“I think companies like Oracle that are not overextended financially, but are sort of raising eyebrows with a lot of the spending that AI, I think that companies like that could struggle,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on December 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Can the Market Rally Without AI and a Dovish Fed?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Market Rally Without AI and a Dovish Fed?
  • Weekly  Market Preview: Santa Rally On?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Insight on Growth

Futures are marginally higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rally and following a quiet weekend of news, as AI linked tech stocks continued to rebound.

Both gold and silver hit new all-time highs on rising geopolitical tensions as U.S. forces boarded another oil tanker bound for Venezuela, further increasing tensions.

Economically, the only notable report overnight was United Kingdom Q3 GDP, which met expectations rising 0.1% q/q and 1.3% y/y.

Market and economic calendars are mostly quiet this week and that includes today as there are no notable economic reports or Fed speakers.  That said, geo-politics remains a potential market mover this week, if we see a further increase in tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.

 

S&P 500 Rises After BOJ Hike Seen as ‘No Worse Than Feared’

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Tom Essaye says the BOJ’s rate hike eased investor worries, helping tech lead gains.

S&P 500 Notches Weekly Gain as Tech Stocks Lead Rally

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to their highest level in 30 years overnight. The move was “no worse than feared” and helped push equities markets modestly higher, Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye wrote Friday morning.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on December 19th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

MMT Chart (December Edition)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart (December Edition)

Futures are modestly higher on momentum from Thursday’s rally and as the BOJ rate decision was no worse than feared

The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 bps, as expected, but gave no indication when rates might rise again and the yen weakened 1% vs. the dollar.

Today focus will remain on economic data via another important inflation report, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and some growth data: Existing Home Sales (E: 4.15 million), Consumer Sentiment (E: 53.4).

The best outcome for stocks remains that the data generally hits expectations and it’s not so good it encourages the hawks to push back on further rate cuts, nor so weak it raises growth concerns.  Most of the data we’ve received this week (and really the last few weeks) has been that way and Goldilocks data is absolutely helping support this market.

 

Sevens Report: December Stock Gains Come From Late-Month Strength

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Seasonality favors the back half of December more than early trading.

This chart suggests Santa rallies typically pick up late in December

A new Sevens Report analysis highlights that December’s strong historical returns in the S&P 500 are overwhelmingly concentrated in the final two weeks of the month—not the first. Citing Ryan Detrick’s 75-year data, December has delivered a 1.4% average gain with a 73% win rate, making it the strongest month of the year.

Sevens noted the front half is usually choppy, and this year is no exception, with the S&P 500 slightly negative through mid-month. The report credits lighter volumes, fund positioning, year-end flows, and anticipation of the Santa Claus rally for late-month strength.

Still, Sevens warned the trend isn’t guaranteed and should be viewed as a helpful tendency—not a certainty.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on December 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

December Market Multiple Table – Deterioration Across Market Influences

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • December Market Multiple Table – Deterioration Across Market Influences

Futures are seeing a solid rebound thanks to strong tech earnings and positive AI news.

Micron (MU) beat earnings estimates (stock up 11% pre-open) and, more importantly, gave robust guidance and that’s helping to reinforce AI Enthusiasm and lift tech and the entire market this morning.

Today will be a busy day of central bank decisions and economic data.  The most important economic report today is CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y), followed by Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and Philly Fed  (E: 2.2).  CPI needs to come in at or under expectations to push back on the hawkish Fed narrative and help support stocks.  Other economic data, meanwhile, needs to stay solidly positive to imply stable economic activity.

On the central bank front, we get a BOE Rate Decision (E: 25 bps cut) and ECB Rate Decision (E: No change) and as long as there are no hawkish surprises from either, they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, on the earnings front, some reports we’re watching today include:  ACN ($3.74), KMX ($0.32), DRI ($2.09), NKE ($0.37), FDX ($4.05), KBH ($1.79).

 

A “Santa Rally” Chart for Clients

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Interesting Chart to Show Clients: Santa Tends to Arrive in the Second Half of December
  • Economic Data Takeaways: November BLS, October Retail Sales, & December Flash PMIs

Futures are higher as cooler-than-anticipated inflation data in Europe is offsetting an uptick in geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West as leaders jawbone about ceasefire negotiation details.

Economically, Eurozone CPI cooled to 2.1% vs. (E) 2.4% while U.K. CPI fell to 3.2% vs. (E) 3.4%, both of which supported dovish money flows overnight.

Looking into today’s session, we will get another look at the health of the U.S. consumer ahead of the bell with the November Retail Sales report due to be released (E: 0.2%) while data on Business Inventories (E: 0.2%) will also be reported. The former will be the key economic focus and investors will be looking for a healthy, “Goldilocks” print to support a relief rally.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and the stronger the demand measures are in each, the better for stocks and bonds today.

There are also three notable Fed speakers today: Waller (8:30 a.m. ET), Williams (9:05 a.m. ET), and Bostic (12:30 p.m. ET), and the more dovish their collective tone is, the better for risk assets.

Finally, there are some late season earnings still trickling in with quarterly reports due from JBL ($2.27), GIS ($1.02), TTC ($0.86), and MU ($3.67) today. Obviously, weak earnings could fuel a further decline in equities today while strong results would be well received.

 

Sevens Report: Gold Holds Bullish Bias After Less-Hawkish Fed

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Tom Essaye says the Fed decision supports year-end upside, but key levels matter.

Gold: After Post-Fed Boost, Keep These Key Levels in Mind

While not a bullish gamechanger, the net impact of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision will be to support a year-end rally and the reason is clear: The Fed wasn’t as-hawkish-as-feared. On the charts, gold remains rangebound between support at $4,200 per ounce and resistance at $4,400, observes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Commodities were mixed for most of the day Wednesday as traders awaited the conclusion of the Fed meeting. However, the less-hawkish cut the FOMC delivered sparked risk-on money flows in afternoon trade that saw economically sensitive industrial metals and energy futures outperform. Gold turned positive but lagged on the session.

Still, it lurched higher in after-hours trade to up 0.48% in part because the Fed announced a 30-day bond buying spree totaling $40 billion. Risks are still skewed to the upside in the direction of the dominant, primary uptrend that’s been in place all year.

Technical View: Gold market volatility has picked up in Q4 with risks of intermittent, deeper pullbacks elevated. However, the long-term trend remains bullish.

  • Primary Trend: Bullish (since the week of Nov. 27, 2023)
  • Key Resistance Levels: $4,290…$4,344…and $4,398
  • Key Support Levels: $4,134…$4,045…and $3,941.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on December 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Do Markets Like Warsh Over Hassett?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Do Markets Like Warsh Over Hassett?
  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are trading lower with global equities this morning thanks to soft economic data out of Europe overnight with focus shifting to the November BLS jobs report today.

Economically, the EU Flash Composite PMI fell to 51.9 vs. (E) 52.8 in December from 52.8 in November while the U.K. Unemployment Rate rose to a 4+ year high of 5.1%; both data points raised concerns about the health of the global economy.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the November BLS Employment Situation Report (E: 40K Job-Adds, 4.5% Unemployment Rate, 3.6% Wage Growth) and Retail Sales (E: 0.2%) due to be released ahead of the bell, both of which have the potential to move markets.

Additionally, data on Business Inventories (E: 0.2%), Housing Starts (E: 1.325M), the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.0) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.9) for December will also be released and could move markets.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today and earnings season is slowing down materially with just one quarterly report due today: LEN ($2.23) which will leave investors primarily focused on the key economic data due out early in the day.

 

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter and Technicals

We’ve recently been contacted by advisor subscribers who want to use the remainder of their 2025 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products.

If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report research offering), please email: info@sevensreport.com.

 

Updated Market Outlook Post Fed Decision & AI Disappointment (Still Bullish?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook Post Fed Decision & AI Disappointment (Still Bullish?)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Data Stay Goldilocks (And Further Fuel RSP over SPY?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Report Tomorrow is the Key Event

Futures are solidly higher on rising hopes that Kevin Warsh, not Kevin Hassett, would be the next Fed Chair.

President Trump said that Fed Governor Warsh had moved to the top of his Fed Chir list and that’s positive as markets view Warsh as more independent then Hassett.

Economically, Chinese data disappointed as retail sales, industrial production and Fixed Asset Investment missed estimates.

Today focus will be on economic data via the first data point for December, Empire Manufacturing (10.6).  This is a volatile metric but as long as it’s mostly stable (so no big drop) it shouldn’t weigh on markets.

We also get the Housing Market Index (E: 38) and have two Fed speakers: Miran (9:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (10:30 a.m. ET).  Of the two, Williams is the most important and if he’s dovish, it should help support markets.