How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Treasury Yields Remain Stable? (CPI, Possible SCOTUS decision, Fed concerns)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus This Week

Futures are moderately lower following the announcement of a federal criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell.

On Sunday night the government confirmed it had opened a criminal investigation focused on Fed Chair Powell and the construction of the Fed’s new headquarters.  The net impact of the news is to further pressure Fed independence and that is why futures are declining moderately.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there are no economic reports so focus will be on Washington, first via more details of the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell and then on a potential Supreme Court IEEPA tariff decision.  Regarding the Fed, any news that further raises concerns about the loss of Fed independence will send Treasury yields higher and stocks lower.

There are also three Fed speakers today, Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (6:00 p.m. ET) and any dovish commentary from the three should help support markets (Williams is the most important speaker today).

 

Sevens Report Co-Editor Quoted in MarketWatch

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Oil prices have found support from unrest in Iran Says Tyler Richey

Oil rises 3% this week — and not just because of Venezuela

For now, oil prices have found support from unrest in Iran, and from Israeli threats of potential military strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, which would impact supplies, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Venezuela continues to be in the spotlight, and the near-term impact of the situation there is actually also bullish for prices from a supply standpoint, Richey told MarketWatch.

The state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, has reportedly shut down an unknown amount of oil-well production due to a lack of sufficient physical oil storage and still largely locked-down port operations, he said.

That eventually could pressure prices lower, as Venezuela has nowhere to put the barrels still flowing out of the ground — leaving it in a very similar debacle to that which the U.S. found itself in back in April 2020, when storage hit capacity and some operators were forced to pay someone to take delivery of their oil, Richey noted. That might be an area where President Trump may want U.S. oil companies to step in with help.

That’s an amount of oil that will no longer be going to China or Russia — and the demand for those barrels hasn’t changed overnight, so they will need to be sourced elsewhere, “temporarily tightening global physical-market dynamics,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 9th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance

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The market is richly valued trading at a high multiple

Why the stock market could easily get spooked

“The market is richly valued trading at a high multiple that presents a major risk if lofty earnings expectations fail to be delivered,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said.

To Essaye’s point, the forward price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is 22 times — well above the 10-year average of 18.7 times. Stocks are almost as richly valued as when they hit a peak in early January 2022. What followed was the start of a nine-month bear market — the benchmark index plunged about 19%.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Yahoo Finance on January 9th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

“That leaves very little room for error” – Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

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High valuations raise the stakes for U.S. jobs data to come in just right, according to Sevens Report Research

Stocks face their first real test of 2026 with Friday’s pivotal jobs report and possible tariff ruling

On Friday, investors will receive the U.S. Labor Department’s first jobs report of 2026, which covers the month of December. There are potential risks for investors whether the data come in stronger or weaker than expected, said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

That leaves very little room for error, Essaye said. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the report to show 73,000 new jobs were created last month; that would be an improvement from just 64,000 in the initial reading for November. The unemployment rate also is expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5%.

“As was the case for the last two jobs reports, a ‘Goldilocks’ number that shows solidly positive jobs growth and stable unemployment is the best-case scenario for stocks, and the number that can keep this rally going,” Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 8th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day (and Potential Tariff Decision)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day (and Potential Tariff Decision)

Futures are little changed ahead of today’s jobs report and the potential announcement of the Supreme Court’s IEEPA tariff decision.

Economic data was better than expected overnight as German Industrial Production and EU Retail Sales both beat expectations.

Today focus will first be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  E: 55K Job-Adds, 4.6% Unemployment Rate, 3.6% Wage Growth.  A Goldilocks number that shows job adds in line and no increase in unemployment will be the best case for stocks.

In addition to the jobs report, we could get the SCOTUS IEEPA tariff ruling today and if so, the key will be the 10-year Treasury yield.  If the yield jumps on the decision, that will be a new headwind on stocks.  Finally, there are two Fed speakers today, Kashkari (10:00 a.m. ET) and Barkin (1:35 p.m. ET) and the more dovish they are, the better for markets.

 

Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

Futures are modestly lower on further digestion of the administration’s potential interference in industries.

The administrations’ proclamations on housing and defense company dividends/buybacks are weighing on markets as investors will only welcome so much government interference in business.

Economic data overnight was solid as German Manufacturers’ Orders and EU Unemployment both beat estimates.

Today focus will stay on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and given labor market anxiety, the stronger the claims number, the better.  There are two other economic reports today, Q3 Productivity & Costs (E: 3.6%, 0.8%), Consumer Credit (E: $9.7B), but they are unlikely to move markets especially given tomorrow’s jobs report looms just over 24 hours away.

 

Sevens Report Explains Why Markets Shrugged Off Maduro’s Capture

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Oil supply implications, not politics, remain the market’s primary focus.

Why markets appear relatively calm after capture of Venezuelan President Maduro

“The reason the ouster of Maduro is unlikely to impact markets is the same one that explains why the Russia/ Ukraine war hasn’t impacted markets nor the heightened U.S./Iran tensions: Oil supplies,” according to a note from Tom Essaye, founder and president of the Sevens Report Research. “Markets look at geopolitical events solely through the lens of impacts of critical resources,” and mostly oil, he said Monday.

“Unless the event is going to reduce the supply of available oil,” spurring a jump in the price per barrel that risks slowing global growth, “then markets will largely ignore the event,” Essaye said. “In the case of Venezuela, if anything, the events of the weekend could boost oil supplies.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 5th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Could Make Markets Decline in 2026? (Three Events)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Could Make Markets Decline in 2026? (Three Events)
  • U.S. Composite PMI Commentary Notes “Cracks in the Economy”

U.S. futures and global markets are lower as traders digest the latest rally to all-time highs, weighing an uptick in geopolitical tensions in Asia against Goldilocks economic data out of the EU overnight.

Economically, the German Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 6.3% in November, as expected, while the Eurozone Core HICP (CPI equivalent) favorably fell to 2.3% vs. (E) 2.4% which has invited a bid into global bond markets.

Looking into today’s session, we will get the first look at important December labor market data in the U.S. via the ADP Employment Report (E: 47K) ahead of the bell and JOLTS (E: 7.65MM) shortly after the open.

Additionally, the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.2) will be an important release to watch after the open, along with Factory Orders data (E: -1.2%) while there is one Fed official scheduled to speak mid-day: Bowman (11:30 a.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that will offer a fresh look at bond traders’ assessment of the morning’s flurry of U.S. economic data and subsequent impact on Fed policy expectations (the stronger the demand the better).

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance: “If AI goes south on us, tech will go.”

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Tom Essaye tells Yahoo Finance, “If AI goes south on us, tech will go.”

AI took investors on a date in 2025. In 2026, analysts say it’s time to foot the bill.

“If AI goes south on us, tech will go,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report, told Yahoo Finance in an interview.

In a new report, “Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026,” Essaye observed that the initial unified enthusiasm for AI has become “fractured.” The industry is moving into a period where the market is aggressively sorting winners and losers. While memory plays like Micron (MU) have surged over 241% year to date, Essaye argued that former darlings like Oracle (ORCL) have faced more scrutiny as investors demand immediate ROI.

Also, click here to view the full article on Yahoo Finance published on January 5th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways
  • Chart: Copper Hits Fresh All-Time Highs

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as the two-day gain to start 2026 is digested ahead of more U.S. economic and the all-important Consumer Electronics Show where NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang will speak at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Economically, the Final Eurozone Composite PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.5 vs. (E) 51.9 in December which mildly dented global soft landing optimism overnight.

Looking into the U.S. session, the Final U.S. Composite PMI (E: 53.0) and data on Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.7 million) are due to be released today while there is one Fed official speaking ahead of the bell: Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET).

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy expectations, however it will be most important to see a Goldilocks PMI print ahead of the most widely anticipated event of the day, the Consumer Electronics Show, where NVDA’s CEO is the keynote speaker scheduled to deliver remarks just as markets close (but futures will continue to trade as he speaks).