Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (March)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (March)

Futures are modestly lower as oil rises near $110/bbl amid continued Middle East escalation overnight.

Iran warned of “zero restraint” while attacks have reduced Qatar LNG output invoking force majeure on short-term deliveries and raised risks to regional energy supply.

Economically, German PPI came in at -0.5% m/m vs. (E) 0.3% m/m which continues a trend of easing producer inflation but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics and oil, although it is a Quadruple Witching Options Expiration which could increase volatility into the close.

There are no economic reports or notable earnings today. And Fed Chair Powell will be speaking on Saturday (1:30 p.m. ET).

 

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are little changed as markets digest yesterday’s Fed decision while rising oil prices keep inflation concerns elevated.

Brent Crude Oil is surging after Iranian strikes hit LNG facilities in Qatar and a refinery in Saudi Arabia, raising fears of a broader energy shock.

Economically, the BOJ held rates steady (0.75%) and warned higher oil prices could boost inflation, but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Philly Fed (E: 5.5), and New Home Sales (E: 728K). Markets will want stable data as higher oil prices add to inflation concerns.

Later, the Treasury will auction 4 & 8-Week Bills (11:30 a.m. ET) and 10-Yr TIPS (1:00 p.m. ET). Earnings today include BABA ($1.73), ACN ($2.86), LUNR ($-0.04), FDX ($4.14), and PL ($-0.13).

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (February Launches)

Futures are higher as oil pulls back while investors await the FOMC decision later today.

Oil is lower after an Iraq export deal eased supply concerns, although geopolitical risks remain elevated near the Strait of Hormuz. And chip stocks are helping sentiment after Nvidia said it restarted H200 production for China

Economically, Eurozone CPI met expectations and is not moving markets.

Today focus is squarely on the FOMC decision (2:00 p.m. ET) and Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET). Markets will want a balanced tone that acknowledges inflation risks without signaling a more hawkish path.

Lastly, we will get earnings reports due from GIS ($0.76), M ($1.53), MU ($8.64), FIVE ($3.99) today.

 

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are slightly lower this morning as oil rises near $100/bbl after attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure while investors await the start of the Fed meeting.

Oil is rising after strikes on energy facilities overnight in Iraq and the UAE while uncertainty remains around a U.S.-led effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Economically, German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Eurozone ZEW both missed estimates, but that’s not moving markets.

The Treasury will hold a 6-Week & 52-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. however, they won’t likely move markets meaningfully.

Finally, earnings season continues with quarterly reports due from ASO ($1.99), TME ($0.21), and LULU ($4.77) today.

 

3 Market Headwinds, 3 Indicators to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Market Problems, Three Indicators to Watch
  • Weekly Market Preview: De-escalation or Not?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Decision the Key Event

Futures are modestly higher after several tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, raising hopes the key oil route could reopen.

Rhetoric from both sides continues to downplay the chances of near-term negotiations while reports say the U.S. may form a coalition to escort ships through the Strait.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), and the NAHB Housing Market Index (E: 37). Markets will want to see stable growth data as investors monitor oil prices.

Beyond the data, the Treasury will auction 3 & 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET while earnings today include DLTR ($2.53) and BEKE ($0.07).

 

Market Multiple Table Chart: Similarities to March 2025

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart: Similarities to March 2025

Futures are little changed as markets digest the rise in oil and as there were no material new attacks on oil infrastructure overnight.

Rhetoric from both sides (U.S. and Iran) continue to downplay the chances for a cease-fire in the near term.

Economically, EU Industrial Production missed estimates (-1.5% vs. (E) 0.5%) but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will remain first and foremost on geo-political headlines and we can expect stocks to continue to trade inversely to the price of oil.

Beyond geopolitics, there are several notable economic reports today including, in order of importance, Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.4% m/m, 3.0% y/y), JOLTS (E: 6.75 million), Durable Goods (E: 0.5%), Final Q4 GDP (E: 1.4%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 56.2).  If Core PCE and the growth data are better than expectations, that will help support this market.

 

 The oil market is showing signs of exhaustion says Tyler Richey

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The oil market is showing signs of exhaustion, says Tyler Richey

Oil prices end at highest since August 2022, then fall in electronic trading

The oil market is showing signs of “exhaustion in the squeezy, geopolitically fueled oil-market advance,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. West Texas Intermediate crude has climbed 41% month to date, according to Dow Jones Market Data. “That doesn’t necessarily mean more upside is out of the question,” just that the market is consolidating the unprecedented rally in U.S. oil prices since the start of March, Richey noted.

As far as the very-near-term price outlook goes, Richey said he “would push back on the idea that ‘the sky is the limit for oil prices'” for now. The most pronounced price gains have been concentrated in the spot month contracts, and that has yet to “spill over into longer-term contracts” beyond the end of 2026, he said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on March 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

March Market Multiple Table: Two New Risks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • March Market Multiple Table: Two New Risks

Futures are moderately lower on higher oil prices as Iran continued attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf.

Iran attacked additional oil tankers overnight, setting at least two tankers ablaze off Iraq and that pushed oil back above $90/bbl, which weighed on futures.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will stay on the war and put simply, the sooner hostilities abate and ships move through the Strait of Hormuz again, the better for markets.  Any progress towards that will pressure oil and boost stocks and any increased attacks on tankers will boost oil and pressure stocks.

Outside of the conflict, there are two notable economic reports today, Jobless Claims (E: 217K) and Housing Starts (E: 1.34M) and the stronger the numbers, the better as the last thing this market needs is a sudden growth scare.

Finally, earnings continue today and some important reports include: ADBE ($4.85), ULTA ($7.99), DG ($1.61) and DKS ($3.36).

 

Price volatility in oil futures remains historically extreme says Tyler Richey

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Price volatility in oil futures remains historically extreme right now said Tyler Richey

Oil futures lose more than 11%, as energy ministers consider release of emergency crude reserves

“Price volatility in oil futures remains historically extreme right now,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. It is “safe to expect more volatility in the sessions ahead regardless of the direction, as the market has become almost entirely headline-driven with keen focus on the Middle East,” he told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Morningstar published on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Are Stagflation Risks Rising?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Stagflation Risks Rising

Futures are slightly higher as investors weigh the prospects of an emergency oil reserve release by G7 members against news that Iran attacked multiple oil tankers overnight ahead of key U.S. inflation data.

Economically, German CPI held steady at 2.0% vs. (E) 2.0% in February which is serving to ease global inflation worries.

Looking into today’s session, domestic inflation data will be in focus early with CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y) due to be released ahead of the bell. Additionally fresh insight regarding the state of the U.S. fiscal situation will be delivered in the afternoon with the release of the Treasury Statement (E: $-308.0B).

There is one Fed speaker scheduled to speak today: Bowman (8:30 a.m. ET) and investors will be looking for any signs of caution regarding rate cuts due to the still tense geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East and the subsequent impact on oil prices/inflation.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, the latter of which will be closely watched as a proxy for any shift in the growth/inflation outlook by bond investors in recent weeks.

Finally, there are a few earnings releases to watch today including CPB ($0.57), PATH ($0.12), and WOOF ($-0.02), however, the market’s primary focus will remain geopolitical headlines which have proven to be meaningful intraday catalysts this week. Any signs of a sooner-than-later end to the U.S.-Iran military conflict will be well received and support a further relief rally in risk assets.