Another VIX-Driven Air Pocket?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Latest in the Trade Drama
  • Is this the Start of Another VIX-Driven Air Pocket?

U.S. stock futures are decidedly in the red again this morning tracking Chinese shares lower as trade tensions continue to dominate global markets.

There were however, no notable trade developments overnight.

Economically, Chinese Imports rose 4.0% vs. (E) -0.4% while German Industrial Production rose 0.5% vs. (E) -0.5%, both of which were incremental, macro positives.

Today, there are no economic reports due to be released but the Fed’s Brainard speaks at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the EIA will release weekly inventory data at 10:30 a.m. ET which could move energy markets and, in turn, influence stocks.

Additionally, there is a 10 Yr. T-Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if high demand pressures yields to new lows for the week, expect that to become another headwind on stocks.

Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on May 6, 2019

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Tom Essaye joined Yahoo Finance’s Zack Guzman and Heidi Chung to discuss how Trump’s tariff threat could influence global markets. Click here or the video below to watch the full interview.

Yahoo Finance video clip

 

Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch on May 6, 2019

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Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report said “As the developments have been digested today, the flurry of Trump tweets are being seen more as a negotiating tactic that has the potential to…” Click here to read the full MarketWatch article.

the base for Saudi Aramco's Natural Gas Liquids plant and oil production

When Is the Dovish Fed Good for Stocks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • When Is the Dovish Fed Good for Stocks? It’s the Difference Between “Aggressive” and “Appropriate”

Stock futures are trading lower by 0.50% this morning as trade tensions escalated further late Monday with several U.S. trade officials confirming plans to hike tariffs Friday.

Overnight, it was reported that Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He would still come to the U.S for negotiations this week but for just 2 days rather than the originally planned 4 which was seen as an incremental negative.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders rose 0.6% vs. (E) 1.0% in March which weighed modestly on EU shares.

Looking into today’s session, trade news will still dominate the markets however there are a few other catalyst to watch including March JOLTS data (E 7.215M) and one Fed speaker: Kaplan (7:00 a.m. ET).

What New Tariff Threats Mean for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Trump’s Tariff Threats Mean for Markets
  • Updated Market Outlook (Beyond Tariffs/Trade)
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (All About Inflation)

Futures are sharply lower after President Trump renewed tariff threats against China, putting the expectation for a U.S./China trade deal in doubt.

President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 25% on 200 billion this Friday if a trade deal is not complete.

Outside of trade, economic data was mixed.  Chinese composite PMI declined (52.7 vs. (E) 52.9) while Euro Zone composite PMI and retail sales slightly best estimates.

Today there is one Fed Speaker: Harker (9:30 a.m. ET) but obviously the focus of markets will be on any trade updates.  As of this writing, the Chinese trade delegation is still coming to the U.S. for more negotiations this week.  If that is cancelled, look for stocks to take another leg lower.  Conversely, if it’s announced Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He is attending the talks, that will be a positive.

From a technical standpoint, 2890 in the S&P 500 is notable support and if that’s broken, selling could accelerate.

What Is Dow Theory Saying Now?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What is Dow Theory Saying Now
  • 10’s-2’s Yield Spread and Bank Stock Outlook (Post Powell’s Press Conference)

Futures are bouncing slightly ahead of the jobs report and following yesterday’s modest declines.  Generally it was a quiet night of news.

EU Core HICP (their CPI) was stronger than expected, rising 1.2% vs. (E) 1.0% and incrementally added to the modest hawkish shift in the global central bank outlook following Powell’s press conference.

Today the headline numbers are the Employment Situation Report (Jobs: 180K, UE: 3.8%, Wages: 0.2% m/m) and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (E: 57.3).  If the jobs number is very strong (job adds above 250k, UE below 3.7% and wages above 3.5% yoy, that might cause a decent sell off given Powell’s hawkish surprise on Wednesday, but barring that it shouldn’t impact markets too much.

Absent a jobs report surprise, the two biggest events today are comments by Fed Vice Chair Clarida (11:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (1:45 a.m. ET).  Specifically markets will be looking to see whether they echo Powell’s “transitory” comments about inflation, or if they sound more concerned.  The former will pressure stocks, while the later might provide some relief.

Other Fed officials speaking today include: Evans (10:15 a.m. ET), Bowman (3:00 p.m. ET) and after the market close: Bullard, Daly, Kaplan, Mester.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Financial Times on May 1, 2019

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Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, said a modest but noticeable 539,000-barrel draw from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — just the second time the US has tapped its SPR this year…Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on May 2, 2019

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Keep an eye on how the market overall responds to Wednesday’s drop. “Traders will be focused on whether the S&P 500 can hold yesterday’s low…” Click here to read the full Barron’s article.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on May 2, 2019

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Tom Essaye quoted in MarketWatch on May 2nd 2019. After Powell’s news conference, investors were “left with a market lacking a material, positive catalyst at the moment and one at the top of reasonable valuations…” said Tom. Click here to read the full article.

FOMC Takeaways (Where’s the Positive Catalyst Now?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Takeaways – No Discernable Positive Catalysts for Stocks
  • Why This Fed Isn’t Good at Communication
  • Jobs Report Preview
  • Oil Market Update

Futures are tentatively bouncing from yesterday’s late sell off as markets digest an imminent U.S./China trade deal, mixed economic data and the Fed meeting.

Multiple press reports yesterday implied a U.S./China trade deal could be completed next Friday, with the 10% tariffs on 250B in goods immediately reduced.  This meets current market expectations and is already priced in, so there was no rally on the news.

Economic data met low expectations overnight as the EU Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 47.9 vs. (E) 47.8, but that’s not moving markets.

Today we get a few notable economic reports via Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Productivity and Costs (E: 1.9%, 1.8%) and Factory Orders (E: 1.5%), but none of those should move markets.  Instead, with no major events scheduled for today, traders will be focused on whether the S&P 500 can hold yesterday’s low (2923).  If that support is fails than look for selling to accelerate.