A Disconcerting ERP Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Equity Risk Premium: A Disconcerting Statistic

Futures are bouncing modestly after yesterday’s steep equity selloff as Secretary Mnuchin reportedly resumed talks with Chinese officials regarding trade but the budget drama between Italy and the EU remains a headwind.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey missed (badly): 58.2 vs. (E) 65.0 while the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was more inline: 107.4 vs. (E) 108.0, underscoring the ongoing divergence between US and overseas data right now.

Looking ahead to today’s Wall Street session, there are no other economic reports to watch and only one of the two Fed speakers is during market hours: Kashkari (10:00 a.m. ET), Daly (5:00 p.m. ET).

Most of the more notable catalysts this week will come tomorrow (U.S. CPI, Chinese economic data, Powell speaks, earnings, etc.) but that doesn’t mean that downward momentum that began yesterday can’t continue so support in the S&P between 2705 and 2720 will be important to watch today.

Four Keys to a Bottom Updated

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Four Keys to a Market Bottom Updated
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (All About Inflation)

Futures are slightly lower following a quiet weekend outside of the oil markets.

Saudi Arabia signaled it will cut oil output by 500k bbls in December in response to falling oil prices, and Russia hinted it will do the same.  Oil rallied 2% on the news initially although it’s given back most of those gains as of this writing.

Away from oil it was a quiet weekend as there were no notable economic reports or changes in U.S./China trade, although the U.S. dollar is hitting new 2018 highs on the latest negative Brexit headlines.

Today should be a generally quiet day given 1) the Veteran’s Day holiday (banks and bond markets are closed), and 2) There are no notable economic reports or earnings today.  There is one Fed speaker, Daly (2:30 p.m. ET) but her comments won’t move markets.

So, our focus today will be on the dollar, which is now at fresh 2018 highs. If it continues to grind higher that will likely pressure stocks today (a suddenly stronger dollar is not what this market needs right now).

Why the October Sell Off Was Different

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why The October Sell Off Was Different
  • Valuation Update (the market is fairly valued here)

Futures are moderately lower following more disappointing Chinese economic data.

Chinese auto sales plunged 12% yoy in November and annual car sales growth turned negative for the first time since the early 1990’s, further fanning fears of a Chinese economic slowdown.

Earnings results were mixed as DIS posted solid numbers while EU corporate earnings were disappointing.

Today focus will be on inflation via PPI (E: 0.2%) and it needs to remain “Goldilocks” so as to not put more downward pressure on stocks.  We also have several Fed speakers (Williams (8:30 a.m. ET), Harker (8:50 a.m. ET), Quarles (9:00 a.m. ET)) although the next big Fed event will be Fed Chair Powell speaking on Tuesday.

Election Takeaways & FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Election Takeaways (Short and Longer Term Implications)
  • FOMC Preview – All About the Fed Put
  • A Seasonal Pattern That’s Worked 100% of the Time

Futures are modestly higher on a relief rally as the U.S. mid-term elections provided no surprises.

As was widely expected, Democrats gained a small majority in the House of Representatives, while the Republicans expanded their majority in the Senate.

Economically, data from Europe was good as German Industrial Production (0.2% vs. (E) -0.1%) and Euro Zone Retail Sales (0.1% vs. (E) 0.0%) both beat estimates.

Today focus will be on the FOMC Decision (2:00 p.m. EST, E: No Change to Rates) and the key will be whether the Fed mentions recent stock market volatility.  If they do, that will be taken as a slightly dovish shift, and it likely will help extend today’s early rally.

Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey quoted in Wall Street Journal on November 1, 2018

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Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey quoted in Wall Street Journal on November 1, 2018. Read the full article here.

Trade War Indicator

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Realtime Trade-War Indicator to Watch

Futures are slightly lower with EU markets this morning on renewed political tensions despite upbeat economic data o/n while US focus turns ahead to the mid-terms.

Italian shares are down nearly 1% as the revised budget due on 11/13 is not expected to have the improvements investors previously hoped which could lead to further tensions with the EU.

Economically, the EU Composite PMI came in better than expected (53.1 vs. E: 52.7) which is a longer term positive as we need to see overseas data “catch up” to US growth metrics to help fuel continued gains in stocks broadly.

Today, trader focus is going to primarily be on the mid-term elections although results will not come in until after the close.

On the economic front, there is just one report to watch: September JOLTS (E: 7.110M) while there are no Fed officials schedules to speak ahead of the two-day Fed meeting that begins tomorrow.

Lastly, markets will remain sensitive to any trade war developments while technicals are still playing a major role in intraday price swings so if momentum is generated back towards 2700, the odds of another ugly break to the mid $2600’s would rise significantly.

Growth and Volatility

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook: “Growth Pillar” Remains Solid, but Volatility Not Necessarily Over
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

US stock futures are little changed this morning as last week’s gains are digested with focus remaining on the trade war with China, elections, and recent economic data.

There were no material developments on the trade front over the weekend however sentiment has deteriorated modestly since Friday which weighed on risk assets overnight, namely in Asia.

Additionally, China’s Services PMI fell 2.3 points to a thirteen month low of 50.8 in October which further weighed on Asian markets.

Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch in the US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 59.4) and there are two Fed speakers: Williams ahead of the bell (8:30 a.m. ET), and Kaplan later this evening (7:30 p.m. ET).

On the charts, 2705 will be a key support level to watch in the S&P today as a violation would likely see selling accelerate back down into the mid 2,600’s. To the upside, a break above 2,750 would open the door to a run back above 2,800.

Rebound Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line: Rebound Update
  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated Version)

Futures are decidedly higher this morning after Chinese shares led global equities higher overnight thanks to continued optimism about a US-China trade deal.

A Bloomberg article released early this morning reported that the Trump Administration has begun working on the terms of a trade agreement to present to President Xi at the G20 spurring sizeable risk-on money flows overnight.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will be on economic data early with the Employment Situation (E: 190K), International Trade (E: -$53.3B), and Factory Orders (E: 0.4%) figures all due out within an hour of the open. There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today.

On the earnings front, there are several notable releases to watch ahead of the bell: BABA ($1.09), XOM ($1.21) and STX ($1.55).

Once earnings and economic data are digested, focus will likely return to momentum, technicals, and any incremental news on trade. On the charts, the S&P’s 200 day moving average is sitting at 2765 which will be an initial upside target if the bullish momentum continues today.

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • Technical Update:  Good Bounce, Poor Price Action

Futures are modestly higher on continued momentum from the Wednesday rally, as markets ignored more disappointing economic data.

For the second straight night foreign economic data disappointed, and this is a becoming a disconcerting trend.  UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to a 27 month low at 51.1 vs (E) 53.6.

AAPL reports today but after the bell, so the focus of the regular session today will be on economic data.  There are three reports to watch but the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 59.0) is the most important one, followed by  Jobless Claims (E: 212K) and Productivity and Costs (E: 2.3%, 1.1%).  Bottom line, we need Goldilocks data (not too strong to make the Fed hawkish, not too weak to get us worried about growth) to further fuel this rebound.

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in MarketWatch on October 31, 2018

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Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in MarketWatch on October 31, 2018. Read the full article here