Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on May 31, 2019
Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on May 31, 2019. A lot of important topics to talk about lately. Watch the full video here.
Tom Essaye Quoted in Axios on May 30, 2019
Tom Essaye quoted in Axios on May 30, 2019. “The 2019 rally has been driven by 1) A dovish pivot by the Fed (no more hikes), 2) An expected U.S.-China trade deal, 3) Stable U.S. and global economic growth and…” Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on May 30, 2019
Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report, said in a Thursday note to clients that trade on Wednesday “somewhat shockingly saw outright gains by China ETFs and emerging market ETFs along with banks. That flies in the face of…” click here to read the full article.
What Mexican Tariffs Mean for Markets
What’s in Today’s Report:
- What Mexican Tariffs Mean for Markets (New Worst Case Scenario)
- Two Leading Indicators of Market Contagion We’re Watching
- Fed Policy Update
- EIA/Oil Outlook
Futures are down 1% as President Trump announced tariffs against Mexican imports in response to the border crisis, while Chinese economic data missed expectations.
Trump announced a 5% tariff on Mexican imports in June and rising each month there after until they hit 25%.
The March Chinese manufacturing PMI missed estimates at 49.4 vs. (E) 49.9 adding to global growth worries.
Today the key number is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 1.6% yoy) and if that number prints stronger than estimates, expectations for a Fed rate cut will drop further and given everything else happening today, markets could get ugly. Conversely, a soft inflation number will increase calls for a rate cut, and stocks could steady on that news.
The other key event today is a speech by New York Fed President Williams, and markets will want to see if he has a dovish tone following the tariff announcement and recent soft data (if he does, that’s a positive).
Tyler Richey Appeared on TD Ameritrade Network on May 30, 2019
Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report sat down with Ben Lichtenstein from TD Ameritrade Network to talk about oil, corn futures, energy market and more…Click here to watch the full interview.
Tom Essaye Quoted in Fox2Now on May 29, 2019
The bond market is once again sending a big fat warning sign about the US economy. “For stocks to continue to rally we need to see higher Treasury yields driven by hopes for better growth…” said Tom Essaye, editor of the Sevens Report.
Technical Update (Important Levels to Watch)
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Market Technical Update – Important Support and Resistance Levels To Watch
- Have Stocks Fallen Too Far Too Fast?
Futures are enjoying a modest oversold bounce following a quiet night of news.
There was no new trade news or notable economic data overnight.
Sentiment has turned negative very quickly this week, despite the lack of any incremental bad news (so far) and this morning we’re seeing stocks attempt to bounce.
There are multiple economic reports today including (in order of importance): Revised Q1 GDP (E: 3.0%), Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Pending Home Sales Index (E: 0.5%) and International Trade in Goods (E: -$71.9B).
But, the most important event of the day will be a speech by Fed Vice Chair Clarida at 12:00 p.m. ET, and the key here will be whether he sounds more open to a preventative rate cut, or whether he reaffirms the Fed’s “transitory” view of low inflation. The former will be positive for stocks, the later will be negative.
The Bond Market and the Fed
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Another Message from the Bond Market for the Fed
- European Political Issues (Again)
Stock futures are trading solidly lower this morning as global bond yields continue to drop sharply amid ongoing trade war worries and increasing global growth concerns.
There were no major trade war developments o/n but China reiterated their threat of cutting rare earth exports to the U.S. which further dampened investor sentiment.
The only notable economic report overnight was the German Unemployment Rate which edged up to 5.0% vs. (E) 4.9%.
Looking into today’s session, there are no economic reports due to be released and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
There is a 7-Yr. T-Note Auction at 1 p.m. ET however, and if demand is as strong as yesterday’s Treasury auctions, stocks could remain under pressure and the S&P would likely break key psychological support at 2,800.
Tom Essaye Quoted in ETF Trends on May 28, 2019
The Federal Reserve has been on cruise control thus far in 2019 with respect to interest rate policy, opting to keep the federal funds rate untouched. However, the bond markets are screaming for a rate cut, according to Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on May 24, 2019
“There was a violent repricing of risk on Thursday after the rather disappointing global Flash PMIs discounted the argument that solid growth will continue to…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
