Acknowledging the Negative Outcome

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Acknowledging the Negative Outcome
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Fed Commentary Back-up Rate Cut Expectations?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Fed speak the key with no government data this week.

Futures are solidly higher thanks to strength in Japanese stocks following a surprise election outcome and despite no progress on resolving the U.S. government shutdown.

The Nikkei surged more than 4% after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected Sanae Takaichi to be the new Prime Minister, a mildly surprising outcome that’s seen as positive for more economic stimulus from the BOJ.

Politically, there was no progress on resolving the U.S. government shutdown over the weekend, although markets are continuing to ignore the shutdown (and likely will for another two weeks or so, should it last that long).

Today there are no economic reports so focus will remain on any progress on resolving the shutdown.  There is also one Fed speaker today, Schmidt at 5:00 P.M. ET, but his comments come after the close and shouldn’t move markets.

10-Year Treasury Yield Dips to 4.1% After ADP Miss

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Soft jobs data reignited slowdown concerns, keeping the 10-year yield locked in its 2025 trading range.

TNX: My Technical Take on 10-Year Treasury Yields

Treasury yields eased moderately following this week’s weaker-than-expected ADP jobs report. The 10-year Treasury Note yield (^TNX) slipped five basis points to 4.1% on Wednesday, extending its pattern of tight range trading that has persisted through most of 2025. Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report, noted that the 10-year yield remains technically neutral until a new extreme is reached. He added that the decline was driven more by growth and inflation expectations than Fed policy, as the benchmark yield tends to track economic momentum rather than short-term rate decisions. If the upcoming government jobs report echoes ADP’s weakness, Essaye cautioned that renewed slowdown fears could push investors back toward the safety of long-dated Treasuries—“just as they always do, despite fiscal concerns.”

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on October 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Takeaways from OpenAI’s Secondary Offering (More Evidence of An AI Bubble?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Takeaways from OpenAI’s Secondary Offering (More Evidence of An AI Bubble?)

Futures are slightly higher following another quiet night of news, as there was no notable progress on resolving the government shutdown overnight.

Economic data from Europe was mixed as the EU Services PMI as essentially in-line (51.3 vs. (E) 51.4) and rose since August, while the UK reading was weak, falling to 50.8 vs. (E) 51.9, a solid drop from the 54.2 August level.  That will add to anxiety about the UK economy.

Today there is no jobs report because of the slowdown so all the focus will be on the ISM Services PMI (E: 51.6) and the key for this number is to stay above 50.  If it drops below 50, that will add to slowdown concerns (although don’t be shocked by another “bad is good” rally in the short term).

There are also two Fed speakers today, Logan (1:30 p.m. E.T) and Jefferson (1:40 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Weak ADP Data Not a Red Flag Yet, Says Tom Essaye

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Essaye highlights resilience in labor market and favors natural resources ETF

Weak Jobs Numbers Won’t Derail a Hot Economy. 3 ETFs to Buy.

The latest ADP National Employment Report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, but Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said the data shouldn’t alarm investors. He noted that Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures—typically more reliable—still indicate modest job growth.

“Unemployment remains low,” Essaye said, adding that it would take convincingly poor readings across multiple data sources to pose a serious threat to the economic outlook. “That’s not close to happening right now,” he emphasized.

Looking for opportunities in the current environment, Essaye recommended the FlexShares Global Upstream Natural Resources Index Fund (GUNR), citing its exposure to oil producers, chemical manufacturers, and basic materials companies. He said these firms could see rising profits as demand for commodities strengthens alongside steady consumer and business spending.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on October 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Spending Deal Progress Could Lift Markets

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Political gridlock risks adding pressure to equities

As the Government Shutdown Begin, Stocks Drop

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, added that any sign of progress toward a spending deal could spark a relief rally. Conversely, rising political friction that drags out the stalemate would likely trigger more downside pressure on risk assets.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Tradealgo.com on October 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Spending Deal Could Spark Relief Rally

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Shutdown tensions risk further losses in equities

Stocks Gain on Rate-Cut Bets; Drug Shares Extend Gains

To Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report, any signs of progress toward some sort of spending agreement in Congress would likely spark a relief rally, while rising political tensions that prolong the shutdown would likely prompt further losses in risk assets.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on October 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

When We’ll Know If the Labor Market Is a Problem

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • When We’ll Know If the Labor Market Is a Problem
  • What the Negative ADP Jobs Report Means for Markets

Futures are marginally higher following a mostly quiet night of news.

Politically, there are reports of back-channel negotiations occurring to end the government shutdown and a prolonged shutdown is not expected, although no resolution is imminent (and that’s still ok from a market standpoint).

Economically, Eurozone Unemployment slightly missed estimates (6.3% vs. (E) 6.2%).

Today there will be no jobless claims because of the shutdown so the key economic reports will be Challenger Job Cuts (E: 86k) and Factory Orders (E: 1.4%) while we also have one Fed speakers, Logan (10:30 a.m. ET).  Given yesterday’s negative ADP report, a spike in Challenger layoffs will create additional anxiety about the labor market (and possibly weigh on stocks more than ADP did initially on Wednesday).

 

What the Government Shutdown Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Government Shutdown Means for Markets
  • JOLTS & Case Shiller HPI Takeaways

Markets are trading with a risk-off tone this morning as stock futures are lower, bonds are steady and gold broke out to record highs above $3,900 after the government shutdown for the first time since 2018 at midnight.

Economically, the final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for September edged up to 49.8 vs. (E) 49.5 while the EU’s Core CPI Flash met estimates at 2.3% y/y but the data is not materially impacting markets with the government shutdown news dominating headlines.

While the implications of the government shutdown will remain top of news, there are multiple important economic reports today including the ADP Employment Report (E: 50K), ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.0), and Construction Spending (E: -0.1%). There is also one Fed official scheduled to speak: Barkin (12:15 p.m. ET).

Some late season earnings to watch include reports from CAG ($0.33) and RPM ($1.87), however, the government shutdown is likely to continue to dominate the newswires today so any signs of progress towards some sort of spending agreement in Congress would likely spark a relief rally while rising political tensions that could prolong the shutdown could prompt further losses in risk assets.

 

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance as the Government Shutdown Looms

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Gov’t shutdown could mean no clean jobs data until December

The US government is expected to shut down if Congress cannot reach a deal by Sept. 30. Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said it’s not the shutdown itself that poses a threat to markets, but the disruption to economic data.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on September 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance as Gold hits $3.8K

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Gold hits $3.8K, but investors should ‘wait’: Here’s why

Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré outlines the details of the commodity’s rise, and Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye examines the precious metal from an investment perspective.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on September 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.