Sevens Report Co-editor Tyler Richey Interviewed by TD Ameritrade
Sevens Report co-editor Tyler Richey was interviewed by Oliver Renick from TD Ameritrade to discuss what’s next for crude oil production. Click here to watch the full interview.
Reasonable Valuation Targets
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Where Is a Reasonable Valuation for this Market?
- Two Reasons Gold Is Losing Its Luster
Futures were “limit up” for much of the night following Monday’s rout but have since pulled back to flat as fears of a coronavirus induced recession to continue to grip markets.
Overnight, the German ZEW Survey was dismal with the Current Conditions Index crashing to -43.1 vs. (E) -25.0 underscoring the rapid deterioration in investor sentiment due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
The Fed Meeting has been canceled following Sunday’s intermeeting actions and there are no Fed speakers today.
There are a few notable economic releases to watch this morning, however. In order of importance they are: Retail Sales (E: 0.1%), Industrial Production (E: 0.4%), Business Inventories (E: -0.1%), Housing Market Index (E: 74), and January JOLTS (E: 6.500M).
The first two are especially important as if the data points confirm that economic growth materially slowed in February as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, it could cause more fear-induced selling today as hopes for a swift rebound in growth will continue to fade.
Of course, any noteworthy updates on the COVID-19 pandemic, positive or negative, will continue to have a significant influence on the market and volatility is likely to remain elevated.
Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on March 13, 2020
Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, thinks most of Friday morning’s rally can be attributed to a “typical oversold bounce,” though he does note there are hopes global governments will unveil economic stimulus plans over the weekend. That began to take form as Germany announced such a fiscal stimulus package. And on a more positive note, Thursday’s drop could be a sign of investor capitulation, according to Essaye…Click here to read the subscribe.
Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on March 13, 2020
Tom Essaye interviewed with Brian Sozzi and Alexis Christoforous from Yahoo Finance to discuss the stock market and more…Click here to watch the full interview.
“I think too much damage has been done [to the market]. I think rallies for now should be viewed as potential selling opportunities, unless the government comes out with something so inspiring that it really changes that dynamic,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.
What Did the Fed Do? (And Why Are Stocks Down Again)
What’s in Today’s Report:
- What Did The Fed Do And Why Are Stocks Down?
- What to Make of This Market Now? (Buy/Sell/Hold)
- Two Key Indicators to Watch This Week
Futures are limit down this morning despite the Fed cutting rates to 0% and restarting its QE program.
On Sunday night the Fed cut rates to 0% and announced a new 700 billion dollar QE program, along with other measures designed to boost liquidity.
Coronavirus news over the weekend wasn’t good as case counts continue to rise, especially in Italy. That country is the new center of the coronavirus outbreak.
Today all eyes will be on the bond market. Treasury yields need to stay down, and if the price action in LQD isn’t too bad, stocks can rally out from these early lows. Economically, there is a notable report this morning, Empire Manufacturing Survey (E: 4.8), as it will give us the first look at juts how bad economic activity has been in March.
What Makes It Better and What Makes It Worse
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Why Did Stocks Drop 10% Yesterday? (It Wasn’t Coronavirus)
- What Makes It Better (Four Factors)
- What Makes It Worse (This Is Important)
- Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
Futures are sharply higher as stocks rebound from yesterday’s historic collapse.
Most of the morning rally is just a typical oversold bounce, although there is a lot of “chatter” that global governments are planning to unveil economic stimulus plans over the weekend.
In the U.S., expectations are rising for an economic stimulus plan to be announced as early as this morning. This needs to happen by the open on Monday and the plan needs to be substantial, because as we explain in the issue, this crisis has morphed into a crisis of confidence in Washington’s ability to support the economy, and that’s the real reason stocks went into free fall yesterday.
Today all eyes will be on Washington, because the market is expecting a substantial economic relief package from Congress, and if we don’t get one by Monday (or it’s small and ineffectual) then we should all brace for more volatility.
Sevens Report Co-editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on March 12, 2020
“Oil is the only market that is more volatile than stocks right now, as futures traders continue to digest the implications of the new price war…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi on March 11, 2020
Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi and Alexis Christoforous discuss what’s behind this morning’s market action with Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report Research. Click here to watch the full interview.
Tom Essaye Interviewed with TD Ameritrade on March 11, 2020
Tom Essaye interviewed with TD Ameritrade’s Ben Lichtenstein to discuss earnings, stock markets, consumer staples, coronavirus, concerns, unknowns and much more…Click here to watch the full interview.
The Panic Worsens
What’s in Today’s Report:
- What Trump’s Speech Means for Markets (Not As Bad As The Market Reaction)
- March Economic Breaker Panel (Important Insights)
- Is It Time To Panic?
Apologies for the slightly tardy delivery. A lot has happened since the close.
Futures are limit down once again as markets were disappointed by President Trump’s speech and proposed economic initiatives.
President Trump announced a travel ban from Europe in an effort to curtail the spreading of the disease, as well as several economic policies aimed at stimulating growth including deferral of income tax payments, more SBA loans, and paid sick leave. All of these initiatives will help the economy, but none are a silver bullet for coronavirus, and as such the market is reacting with short term disappointment.
Econ Today: Jobless Claims (E: 216K), PPI (E: 0.5%). There are no Fed speakers speak today however the Treasury will hold a 30-Yr Bond Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Looking forward, this is a market gripped in panic so we’ll continue to watch the headlines, and we need some good news to break the negative feedback loop in the form of positive corporate commentary or optimism on the transmission of the virus, but those types of headlines have been hard to come by lately.