President Trump

What Happens to Markets If Trump Wins?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Happens To Markets If Trump Wins?
  • Oil Update and EIA Analysis

Futures are marginally weaker following negative stimulus headlines overnight.

President Trump tweeted that stimulus talks had again hit an impasse, implying there would be no deal before the election.  This has always been the base case for the market, but as we and others have said, as long as the market expects the $1.5T-$2.0T in stimulus before year-end, the breakdown in negotiations isn’t a major headwind on stocks.

Today, stimulus headlines will continue to move the tape in the short term, but we’ve also got an important economic report via weekly Jobless Claims (E: 868k) and if that number breaks above 900k, we’ll see concern start to rise the economic recovery is starting to slip.

Other notable events today include Existing Home Sales (E: 6.2M) and three Fed speakers: Barkin & Daly (1:10 p.m. ET), Kaplan (6:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season is starting to head up, and while stimulus talks are dominating the headlines, earnings are still important.  Some report to watch today include:  KO ($0.45), AAL (-$5.62), T ($0.77), LUV (-$2.44), UNP ($2.03), INTC ($1.10), COF ($1.99), STX ($0.98).