Sevens Report Analysts Weigh Bitcoin Risks Amid Bullish Momentum

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Some see corrections as healthy for long-term growth

Bitcoin’s Resilience: Why Bearish Predictions Fail to Dampen Institutional Adoption and Real-World Growth

Skeptics often lean on traditional economic models that overlook Bitcoin’s unique traits: its fixed supply, programmability, and role as a hedge against fiat devaluation.

Tyler Richey of The Sevens Report and veteran trader Peter Brandt have both issued bearish targets, though framed more as risk assessments than certainties.

Brandt, for instance, assigns only a 25% probability to a pullback toward $55,000–$57,000. He notes that such corrections, while sharp, could ultimately strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Also, click here to view the full article on Ainvest.com published on August 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The Most Important Fed Speech of the Year (So Far)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Most Important Fed Speech of the Year (So Far)
  • Takeaways from Yesterday’s Sector Performance

Futures are seeing a modest bounce following a generally quiet night of news and head of Powell’s 10:00 a.m. ET speech.

Economically, German GDP declined more than expected, falling –0.3% vs. (E) -0.1%, adding to other hints of stagflation in the global data this week, although Japanese CPI met expectations (3.1% y/y).

There are no notable economic reports today so all the focus will be on Powell’s speech at 10:00 a.m. ET.  Market expectations are that he will signal he’s open to a rate cut in September, essentially reinforcing current market expectations.  If he does not and pushes back on rate cut hopes or ignores policy in his speech altogether, it will be a new market negative.

Finally, mid-season earnings (which have been mixed) continue with two notable reports today: BJ ($1.10), GFI ($0.59).

 

Is There Any Value Left in Tech?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is There Any Value Left in Tech?
  • Jackson Hole Powell Speech Preview
  • EIA and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are slightly lower despite generally solid economic data overnight.

EU and UK August flash PMIs were mostly solid, with Composite PMIs rising for both regions and staying above 50.

Today is a busy day of economic data and the key reports, in order of importance, are:   Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.7), Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0), Jobless Claims (E: 224K), Philly Fed (E: 8.0), Existing Home Sales (E: 3.90 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%).  Especially with the flash PMIs, solid data that pushes back on any slowdown narrative will be welcomed by stocks.  There is also one Fed speaker today, Bostic at 7:30 a.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, notable retailer results continue today with WMT ($0.73), while there are some other notable reports as well: BILI ($0.08), ZM ($0.77), INTU ($1.30), WDAY ($0.80), ROST ($1.52).

 

Tom Essaye Quoted In Barron’s – Two Threats Could Derail Market Rally

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Sevens Report president says stagflation or fading AI enthusiasm are key risks

2 Factors That Could Trigger a Stock Market Selloff

Despite recent economic surprises and geopolitical noise, none of it has slowed the market rally, according to Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research.

“For the simple reason that they weren’t enough to make investors think that 1) tariffs may cause stagflation or 2) meaningfully reduce AI enthusiasm,” Essaye wrote.

He stressed that while conflicting inflation data, questions about data validity, and global tensions add uncertainty, investors should focus on whether developments increase stagflation risk or curb AI optimism.

“As long as the answer to both is ‘no,’ then while stocks may see some volatility, the trend in this market should remain higher,” Essaye concluded.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Tom Essaye: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Set Rate-Cut Expectations

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Sevens Report president Tom Essaye: Fed chair’s comments may shape September policy outlook

Target is probably still missing the mark: Opening Bid top takeaway

“Powell could pave the road for a 25 basis point cut in September, he could push back on those expectations or he could simply not discuss policy much at all. From a market standpoint, any hint of promise of a rate cut will be welcomed, and push back on rate-cut expectations will likely cause a market decline,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article on Aol.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Concentration Risks Warrant Attention

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Concentration Risks Warrant Attention
  • Housing Starts Data Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower but off session lows as the recent tech-led stock market pullback is being digested as the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium comes into focus.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 2.0% on the headline and 2.3% on the core figure which is easing recently elevated concerns about a broad-based resurgence in global inflation pressures, subsequently helping equities bounce off the lows.

There are no economic reports today, however the July FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and investors will be scouring the details for any new insights on Fed policy plans for H2’25.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Waller (11:00 a.m. ET) and Bostic (3:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on investor growth/inflation expectations (and therefore could most stocks).

Finally, retailers continue to dominate earnings news this week with multiple notable major corporations reporting quarterly results today including: TGT ($2.09), EL ($0.08), TJX ($1.01), LOW ($4.23), BIDU ($1.32), and COTY ($0.01). Evidence of ongoing consumer resilience would be a positive for risk assets and likely help stocks stabilize from the early week pullback today.

 

Tom Essaye: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Sway Markets

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Investors eye rate-cut signals ahead of Fed meeting and retail earnings

Market-Moving Events Await Including Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting and Retail Earnings

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said Monday that Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole could have significant market impact.

“Powell could pave the road for a 25 basis point cut in September, he could push back on those expectations, or he could simply not discuss policy much at all,” Essaye noted.

He added that markets would welcome any hint of a cut, while firm resistance from Powell would likely weigh on stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article on news.ssbcrack.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Market’s Perspective on Peace Efforts in Ukraine
  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are slightly lower amid a “sell-the-news” reaction to the lack of a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine after President Trump’s meetings with Putin and Zelensky.

There were no notable economic reports overnight leaving investors focused on geopolitics and retailer earnings.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.290M), and following yesterday’s soft Housing Market Index release, a soft number could weigh further on currently fragile, albeit still resilient, investor sentiment towards the economy.

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on conviction for a September Fed rate cut (the stronger the demand for the Bills, the better) while one Fed official is scheduled to speak in the afternoon: Bowman (2:10 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are some important retailer/consumer earnings this week with notables reporting today to include: HD ($4.71), MDT ($1.23), TOL ($3.59), SQM ($0.52). It will be important for earnings to continue to show consumer spending trends remain resilient, otherwise economic worries could weigh on markets this week.

 

Tom Essaye in Barron’s: Hot PPI Report Threatens Stock Rally Momentum

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Surging producer prices raise stagflation concerns for equity markets

Stocks’ Rally Could Stall After Hot PPI Report

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said Friday that July’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index poses a serious threat to the stock-market rally.

The headline PPI jumped by the most since March 2022, rising more than four times the consensus estimate. Essaye warned that the upside surprise introduces risks that had not been on investors’ radar.

Rising producer prices, he explained, could pressure corporate earnings while increasing the likelihood the Fed faces a “mandate dilemma” if inflation rises just as labor-market data weakens. That would be the “textbook definition of stagflation.”

“If stagflation emerges in the second half of 2025, equities are well over their skis,” Essaye noted, pointing to the S&P 500’s 22-times multiple on what may be overly optimistic 2026 earnings forecasts.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Hot PPI Data Undermines Stock-Market Rally Pillars

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Surging producer prices raise doubts on inflation, Fed cuts, and profits

Thursday’s hot PPI challenges three pillars of stock-market rally

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said Thursday’s hotter-than-expected PPI report has chipped away at three key supports of the 2025 stock-market rally.

The first is confidence that inflation is on track to the Fed’s 2% target. The second is the assumption that a September rate cut is locked in. Essaye warned that if PPI flows into CPI, the Fed could face a “mandate dilemma” between curbing inflation and supporting growth.

The third is optimism for continued corporate profit growth in 2026. Rising producer costs, Essaye cautioned, could compress margins and leave investors disappointed.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.