A New Real Time Economic Indicator

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A New, Real Time Economic Indicator
  • EIA and Oil Market Update
  • Why The U.S. Dollar Is Near Multi-Month Lows Again

Futures are slightly lower following a generally quiet night of news as markets digest Wednesday’s afternoon rally.

Economic data was mixed as Japanese Machine Orders beat estimates (1.7% vs. (E) -9.0%), but German Exports missed expectations (rising just 9.0% vs. (E) 14%).

The U.S. set another record for new coronavirus cases (61k) although markets continue to take the surge in stride, for now (more on that in tomorrow’s Report)

Today focus will be on weekly Jobless Claims (E: 1.375M) and if they bounce back towards 2 million, that will be a headwind on stocks as it will imply the economic recovery is stalling.

We also have one Fed speaker, Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), and presumptive Democratic nominee Biden will give his first major economic policy speech, but neither event should move markets.

Market Multiple Table July Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table July Update

Stock futures are little changed today as investors digest the choppy trade from the front half of the week amid negative coronavirus headlines, ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China, but still mostly upbeat economic data.

Johns Hopkins University reported a new single day record increase of +60K new coronavirus cases in the U.S. yesterday which is weighing on sentiment this morning.

There were no market moving economic reports overnight and no new data is scheduled to be released in the U.S. today.

One Fed official will speak this afternoon: Bostic (12:15 p.m. ET) however investor focus will largely remain on the trends of the coronavirus outbreak and any new indication as to whether or not there will be another round of economic shutdowns which would be a clear negative for risk assets at current levels.

Technical Take: S&P 500 Partial Breakout

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Take: S&P 500 Partial Breakout
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Takeaways

Futures are down nearly 1% this morning, tracking losses in international shares as the recent rally had become near-term overextended and economic data disappointed overnight.

German Industrial Profits rose 7.8% in May but the headline missed estimates calling for a rebound of 10.5% which is weighing on general investor sentiment this morning.

Looking into today’s session, the economic calendar is fairly quiet with just one data point due to be released: May JOLTS (E: 4.900M), however there are four Fed officials speaking today which will warrant some attention: Bostic (9:00 a.m. ET), Quarles (1:00 p.m. ET), Barkin (2:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (2:00 p.m. ET).

Additionally, the Treasury will hold a 3-Yr Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could influence some movement in rates and the yield curve more broadly and, in turn, has the potential to affect the equity market.

Bottom line, the general theme in markets is profit-taking this morning which will leave very near term technical levels in focus. For the S&P 500 that means the support band between 3,135 and 3,150 will be a key zone to watch today, and if the index breaks below that price area the selling could accelerate as stop-orders are triggered on the way down.

What Market Bulls Are Assuming

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Market Bulls Are Assuming
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Are Jobless Claims About to Rise Again?)

Futures are sharply higher thanks mostly to momentum from a big rally in Chinese stocks.

The Shanghai Composite surged nearly 6% on Monday, despite the lack of a discernable, positive catalyst.  Growing confidence in the economic recovery combined with a flood of retail investment fueled the stock gains.

In the U.S., coronavirus cases continued to rise over the weekend, although there was no material acceleration from the pace of the past several days.

Today the key economic report is the June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.0), and if that can break above 50 that will be further confirmation that the economic recovery is happening faster than most thought possible (and it should be a tailwind on stocks).  Additionally, the White House has teased an announcement today of positive developments in treatment of the coronavirus, although the exact timing of this announcement, and what exactly it entails, is unclear.

Tom Essaye Quoted in International Business Times on June 30, 2020

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“A combination of stimulus, positive trends in the virus, economic reopenings and hopes for a vaccine drove stocks higher in [the second quarter],” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “As we begin [the third quarter], only one of those tailwinds is currently in place: Stimulus. That doesn’t mean we’ll see a correction…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Unseen Opportunity on June 30, 2020

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According to Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, stocks could be missing a few “key ingredients” necessary for an even more extended rally. “A combination of 1) Stimulus, 2) Positive trends in the virus, 3) Economic reopenings and 4) Hopes for a vaccine drove stocks higher in Q2…” Essaye wrote. Click here to read the full article.

Jerome Powell

Tom Essaye Quoted in MSN Money on June 30, 2020

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“A combination of 1) Stimulus, 2) Positive trends in the virus, 3) Economic reopenings and 4) Hopes for a vaccine drove stocks higher in Q2…” wrote Tom Essaye, the founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

MSN Money logo

Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on June 30, 2020

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Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Research Founder, joins Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi and Jared Blikre to discuss the latest market action. Click here to watch the full interview.

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on June 30, 2020

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“A combination of 1) Stimulus, 2) Positive trends in the virus, 3) Economic reopenings and 4) Hopes for a vaccine drove stocks higher in Q2,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “As we begin Q3, only one of those tailwinds is currently in place: Stimulus. That doesn’t mean we’ll see a correction, but be suspect of market rallies until we can add more forces supporting stocks, because…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on June 30, 2020

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Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye joined Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi and Jared Blikre to discuss how the markets are faring amid volatile news about the coronavirus. Click here to watch the full video.

Tom Essaye Interview